In what year do you expect the Phils to contend?

Austinfan 2021-01-01 20:15:55 UTC #21

Return to the mean means we can't miss on every RP with a decent arm coming up lame or totally losing their command. In other words, with average talent on paper, we should expect average or slightly below average results, not a total clusterf---.

bkeich 2021-01-01 21:05:07 UTC #22

But the guys coming up have not been average talent or seasoning. Almost all of them were rushed due to need and lacked the “average stuff” to succeed at a ML level. Young Relievers with 92mph fastball are now soft toasters. We haven’t had the flame throwers that other teams have, we just haven’t produced them (Dominguez being the exception, but Kapler cooked his arm by over using him). Guys are getting promoted too early and getting torched at the ML level because they needed another 1-2 years in the minors and development to have ML stuff.

This is proven by the fact that all our failed relievers go on to be .... not much. No relievers is getting released by the Phillies and finding success. They just are not very good, not bad luck, but bad talent evaluation, coaching and talent in general.

We still have almost nothing in the minors for relievers, just hopes and dreams, no likely prospects.

The problem is unfortunately very deep. A below average team with a terrible farm and up against its spending limit is an atrocious situation.

Austinfan 2021-01-01 21:14:18 UTC #23

That's not true with our own young pitchers, it's mostly veterans throwing junk, Alvarez makes it work, otherwise . . .

Romero 94-97 MPH
Russo 92-97
Brogdon 95-99
Suarez 91-94
In the system
DLS is around 95 as a RP
Dohy low to mid 90s
The last couple years we've added a bunch of college SPs with velocity potential as RPs

bkeich 2021-01-01 21:27:37 UTC #24

Any list that has DLS as part of a solution is clearly a joke right? There is almost no chance that he will be anything but batting practice in the majors.

Your list emphasizes my point:

Suarez... hasnt pitched very well at AAA, no reason to expect anything from him. Had a good partial season in the majors, regressed to more like what he probably is.
Romero ...ERA of almost 7 in AAA in 53 innings. Was highly thought of, has dropped WAY down
Russo.... ERA of 5.50 in AAA (14 games).
Brogdon .... there is hope for him

This is not a list of prospects, this is a list of dreams. Brogdon probably plays in the majors, there others appear to be AAA or AAAA pitchers unless something changes. DLS is certainly not someone to think will ever contribute and the fact that you got to him on your list just shows how little immediate assistance we have for the bullpen.

All of these guys are 24-26 or older. A list like this with these stats of 22 year olds in AAA is exciting, but these are guys that have filled out, are at or near their primes and are getting beat up in AAA (except Brogdon). Maybe we get lucky with one of them, but odds are heavily against all of the others to ever turn into anything more than guys you call up when your bullpen is depleted and you throw out there when the game is already out of hand. They will probably all pitch in the majors during the next 2 years, occasionally, but the odds of any of them even generating 1.0 WAR is wildly against them (Brogdon excepted, but he is hardly a big prospect either).

BostonRoss 2021-01-01 21:42:25 UTC #25

I’d settle for some relievers who can maintain zero WAR...

Philsmania 2021-01-01 21:51:18 UTC #26

Yeah, in hindsight, the 2017-18 offseason is where this rebuild began to go sideways. The hiring of Kapler, the ill-advised signing of Santana, the ill-fated signing of Arrieta, just to name three developments.

zambonir 2021-01-02 03:14:52 UTC #27

I think this is overly pessimistic on all counts actually. Romero was a bit of failed starter prospect who showed real promise in relief last season. He wasn't able to maintain it but that is not unusual. Still incredibly small sample. The Phillies' best homegrown relievers are generally failed starters (Madson, Morgan, even Hector until AAA).

Rosso is good enough (including his recent winter stint) that he may still be rotation depth. Suarez was a COVID casualty.

The Phillies rushed some guys because of the injuries in 2019 and then they rushed some guys in 2020 because they had no money. But their biggest, if arguably flukish, failing both years was picking the wrong vets, be they big $ or not, be it due to injuries or performance.