Hall of Fame Discussion 2022 and Beyond

[zambonir]

Yes, he died in disgrace, and not for his opinions (which would probably just be more richly rewarded these days). But he is still "in" the HOF himself.

https://baseballhall.org/discover-more/awards/spink/bill-conlin

[Philsmania]

Like Bill Cosby and his Presidential Medal of Freedom, there's no mechanism for removing the honor.

[BostonRoss]

Hall Of Fame Adjusts Era Committees Eligibility

Beginning with the upcoming year, any candidate on an Era Committee ballot who does not receive at least five of 16 votes will be ineligible for consideration during their era’s next cycle. A candidate who receives four or fewer votes on two separate occasions is ruled permanently ineligible for future consideration.

It isn't retroactive, but candidates like Albert Belle, Ken Boyer, and Davey Johnson would have been eliminated by now had this rule been in place 10 years ago. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro received fewer than five votes their only time on the Eras ballot so far.

[zambonir]

That doesn't seem that drastic really. If you can't top 25% two times in a row you are done, but you still get a break and reconsideration if you only hit 31.25%.

The problem to me - even though it is, after all, the old-timers ballot - is that by the time the voting body begins to include younger generations of baseball people and writers/historians, overlooked/underappreciated players may never get a chance. The PED guys would seem to be out of luck no matter what.

Not looking good for Joe West either!

[Philsmania]

Is Davey Johnson in the running as a player or a manager?

[zambonir]

manager. only competing with other managers/execs/umpires.

[BostonRoss]

Is Davey Johnson in the running as a player or a manager?

Haha. If he played at the same level as he did for the 1977 Phillies (1.7 WAR in 186 PA) for a long time, he might have made it as a player. That's 9.1 WAR/1000 PA. Joe Morgan was at 8.9.

[BostonRoss]

It could be enough to eliminate some candidates forever. In the recent election, Dick Allen, Dave Parker, and Tommy John got a combined 34 votes. The maximum number of votes is 48; they don't report the number of votes for players who do not get at least 5 votes, but there with 14 possible votes unaccounted for, at least three of the remaining five players on the ballot were going to get fewer than five votes even if all 16 voters voted for the maximum. In every recent Eras Committee election, at least half of the candidates failed to muster five votes. It seems likely that candidates will get eliminated forever as this rule takes effect though it will take at least four to six years depending on which category a player is in. The players who failed to get five votes in the most recent election are safe of six years since they wouldn't be up again until 2027.

I think it does make it very hard for the PED guys to get in. Bonds, Clemens, and others not still on the BBWAA ballot could be on the Eras ballot this December. Bonds, Clemens, and Palmeiro all got fewer than five votes in December 2022. If they get fewer than five votes in 2025 and 2028, they could never be considered forever unless the rules were changed again. It's interesting to note that all of the six former Hall of Fame players on the committee had careers that overlapped with those candidates (and committee member former White Sox GM Ken Williams makes seven); yet some, probably most of them, didn't vote even for Bonds and Clemens.

[zambonir]

But are the type of players who will be eliminated forever players that have ever gotten in on the third or fourth try before? Allen needed three tries but he got 11 votes the first and second time.

It's kind of crazy just how little support some of these guys had in the regular vote. I'm kind of a big tent guy but to have 12 people do something that almost 300 people didn't vote for 15 years does seem like a pretty good reason to make the bar high.

The Eras cycle is three years so Bonds etc. won't come up for the first time until 2027.

[BostonRoss]

The contemporary baseball era player ballot will be voted on this December:

https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-fame/election-rules/era-committees

I agree that the Eras Committee process is flawed and that 12 people shouldn't get to decide to induct players who were rejected, sometimes soundly, by the larger group. Even more so for people who were decided on recently. Jack Morris got in only four years after he fell off the ballot. Nearly all of the questionable Hall of Famers were elected by various versions of Veterans/Eras Committees. There is some value in reconsidering candidates whose contributions may be viewed more positively from a modern perspective, but to keep voting on players rejected over and over again...well, that's what gets Dave Parker into the Hall of Fame. He never got more than 25% of the BBWAA vote in 15 years and was rejected three times by Veterans/Eras Committees before being elected.

I can't help thing that the rules change was made now to decrease the chances of PED guys being elected since they can be voted on again later this year. Any of them who are on the Eras ballot will have one strike if they don't get five votes, and the second strike could come in three years. Two strikes and they're out forever. They might be thinking about Pete Rose, too though Rose has never been on a ballot (and still can't be unless Manfred reinstates him) and we don't know whether he'd get five votes if he is on the ballot the next time his ballot is voted on in three years.

[zambonir]

Ah, I forgot Allen and Parker was from the older (Classic) era. I mean, I'm old enough to remember them! (The cut-off is 1980 right? I never saw Allen's heyday though.)

I think Pete would get more than five votes, but surely not 12.

Do we know who is on the Contemporary committee already?