Hall of Fame Discussion 2022 and Beyond

[zambonir]

Phillies issued a statement. Does that mean he's going to be invited back for the Wall?

https://x.com/JClarkNBCS/status/1922401332171801030

“The Phillies support today’s decision by Commissioner Manfred and Major League Baseball to remove Pete Rose from the permanently ineligible list.
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As one of the greatest players in the history of the game, Pete made significant on-field contributions to the Phillies over his five seasons (1979-83) with the club, highlighted by our first World Series title in 1980.
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Phillies legend and Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt:
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“It’s a great day for baseball as Commissioner Manfred has reinstated Pete Rose, making him eligible for the National Baseball Hall of Fame. The ongoing question of whether Pete Rose should or shouldn’t be in the Hall will be answered by a select panel in the next Classic Baseball Era Committee.
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“Congratulations to Pete’s family, his teammates, as well as his supporters who have waited many years for this opportunity for consideration.”

[bkeich]

So, it is kinda unclear, they are reinstated BUT do their 10 years of voting eligibility start now or is it long over. I assume it starts now, but there is an argument that they don’t get the votes in the time after their retirement.

I really don’t like the idea of either in. This is just a Baseball Commissioner capitulating to someone who thinks his power should be over everything. That alone makes them not vote-able, but they threw and / or bet on games. Lifetime ban.

[zambonir]

Oh I think it starts now. But they only get three chances in 10 years right?

It was a lifetime ban.

I would like to believe Manfred was already heading in this direction. The appeal predated the President's meddling.

[LegoDoom]

Oh I think it starts now. But they only get three chances in 10 years right?

Won't it not even start for 2 more years?

[zambonir]

Well, that's actually a good point/question but they'd still get three shots either way

[andyb]

His career was mostly pre-1980 but not totally. And then he managed. You could theoretically put him on the ballot of all 3 committees.

https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-fame/election-rules/era-committees

[zambonir]

You only get to be on one though right? At least as a player.

[bkeich]

So, it is kinda unclear, they are reinstated BUT do their 10 years of voting eligibility start now or is it long over. I assume it starts now, but there is an argument that they don’t get the votes in the time after their retirement.

I really don’t like the idea of either in. This is just a Baseball Commissioner capitulating to someone who thinks his power should be over everything. That alone makes them not vote-able, but they threw and / or bet on games. Lifetime ban.

After looking I am changing my opinion. The ruling is not that these two guys are eligible, it is that a lifetime ban ends with your death.

You know what…. I agree thinking of it that way. It is a reasonable punishment. Let them in.

[BostonRoss]

Unless the Hall of Fame changes their rules (again), the 10 years rule is for the BBWAA vote, which starts five years after retirement. Rose and Jackson will have to go through the various veterans committees or whatever they’re called now.

[andyb]

It probably does not matter. The central issue of the conscience clause is probably just as important to the pre-1980 ERAs committee as it is to the regular ballot. 75% is still a high bar even if Rose's playing career should make the vote unanimous. If that vote actually happened then the next post-1980 committee would have to vote all the no-doubt steroid guys in.

HOF induction ceremony one year will have lots of guys. And the poor honest player that wins the vote the old fashioned way that year will have the worst induction weekend ever.

[LegoDoom]

His career was mostly pre-1980 but not totally. And then he managed. You could theoretically put him on the ballot of all 3 committees.

https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-fame/election-rules/era-committees

What are the chances that Rose goes through on "Contemporary Baseball Era"? He's still two away.

[andyb]

I am guessing he'll be on the classic ballot (which they just did this past year). So 2 years from now (late 2027, induction in 2028). They change these rules so often that they may decree a special ballot too.

Whether he gets 12 out of 16 votes really depends on who those voters are. Probably lots of old school Republicans voting on that committee though that does not mean they would be susceptible to Trump pressure. Much of Rose's support is from his former teammates.

[LegoDoom]

I am guessing he'll be on the classic ballot (which they just did this past year). So 2 years from now (late 2027, induction in 2028). They change these rules so often that they may decree a special ballot too.

Joe Jackson deserves a nod before Rose just based on these rules.

[BostonRoss]

I don’t remember hearing much from former players (other than Schmidt) about whether they think Rose belongs in the Hall. I’ve heard more players speaking out about the PED guys (for and against)—of course those guys were never banned.

[andyb]

Joe Jackson deserves a nod before Rose just based on these rules.

Jackson would be the same ballot as Rose most likely. His HOF question is more complicated as his WAR is borderline. Kirby Puckett got credit for being a good guy with an unlucky injury. Chase Utley might get in because of peak value where his career fell short because of injury. It is untested though whether somebody falls short because of banishment.

I could easily see Rose get in but not Shoeless Joe. It also helps to have people alive that remember you or played against you.

[zambonir]

Last year's committee:

Hall of Fame players Paul Molitor, Eddie Murray, Tony Pérez, Lee Smith and Ozzie Smith

Joe Torre

Sandy Alderson, Terry McGuirk, Dayton Moore, Arte Moreno and Brian Sabean

Plus media members/historians Bob Elliott, Leslie Heaphy, Steve Hirdt, Dick Kaegel and Larry Lester.

I think he'll have a hard time getting in and there will a be a ton of media arguing in that direction, and not just because of what got him banned from baseball.

[LegoDoom]

Joe Jackson deserves a nod before Rose just based on these rules.

Jackson would be the same ballot as Rose most likely. His HOF question is more complicated as his WAR is borderline.

Jackson was also robbed of some years to keep his WAR down. His 1920 bWAR was 7.5.

Given part of the decision was about deceased players... Joe Jackson died in 1951? It's BS.

[bkeich]

Joe Jackson deserves a nod before Rose just based on these rules.

Jackson would be the same ballot as Rose most likely. His HOF question is more complicated as his WAR is borderline. Kirby Puckett got credit for being a good guy with an unlucky injury. Chase Utley might get in because of peak value where his career fell short because of injury. It is untested though whether somebody falls short because of banishment.

I could easily see Rose get in but not Shoeless Joe. It also helps to have people alive that remember you or played against you.

Keep in mind that Shoeless Joe had the 2nd highest BA before the Negro League inclusion. That alone might get him in, his WAR is hurt by his being banned, but WAR/Season he easily makes it. Kinda the Sandy Koufax argument.

[andyb]

Jackson was also robbed of some years to keep his WAR down. His 1920 bWAR was 7.5.

The issue is "why" he was robbed. An injury is not necessarily the player's fault. Military service is not the player's fault. A voter could easily take a short career guy like Jackson and blame the shortness of his career on the player. We just don't know how voters will feel about that. Or the PED guys in the 50-70 WAR range when we let the obvious ones in (Bonds, Clemens, ARod).

[andyb]

Keep in mind that Shoeless Joe had the 2nd highest BA before the Negro League inclusion. That alone might get him in, his WAR is hurt by his being banned, but WAR/Season he easily makes it. Kinda the Sandy Koufax argument.

All true (though discount that BA a bit because of the era). 62 WAR is borderline though. Lou Whitaker had 75. Chase Utley 64. Koufax was only 53 of course. And Kirby Puckett 51, But they got credit for their career being cut short by factors beyond their control. It is just a gray area that was never tested in the voting because the voters never got a chance.