Guesses for the final roster

[phillychuck]

SP
Nola
Arietta
Velazquez
Pivetta
Lively

RP
Hutchison (6th starter)
Neris (CL)
Neshek
Hunter
Morgan
Garcia
Ramos

C-Alfaro, Knapp
1B-Santana
2B-Hernandez
SS-Crawford
3B-Franco
Util IF-Valentin, Florimon (+OF)

OF-Hererra, Hoskins, Altherr, Williams, Quinn

I much prefer bouncing relievers up and down and carrying 13 position players. We'll see if the Phils do this with Arano and Thomson and Milner.

Kingery up soon. Maybe Eflin, too.

[andyb]

It is possible they might start with Arrieta off the roster. He can even be optioned to AAA this year as he does have an option. I don't think he could make a AAA start without the option and he would be limited to extended outings unless they could justify a DL/conditioning stint.

If that is the case they go with an 8th reliever along with 4 starters until they need the 5th. And then they make a decision on Kingery a week or two after that. The weakness of the above roster is only one LHP.

If we get an early recall of Kingery I think it almost guarantees that they go with a 4 man bench. Catcher, Williams, Kingery, Valentin or Quinn but not both.

C - Alfaro, Knapp
IF - Santana, Hernandez, Crawford, Franco, Valentin, Florimon
OF - Herrera, Hoskins, Altherr, Williams, Quinn
SP- Nola, Velazquez, Pivetta, Lively
RP - Hutchison, Neris, Neshek, Hunter, Morgan, Garcia, Ramos, Milner

After 10 days Arrieta comes up, Florimon or Valentin goes down. When Kingery comes up, then either the remaining IF or Quinn goes down.

Short bench works for Kingery because it assures him getting more playing time and the other players have options. Whether they keep one of Valentin or Florimon on a short bench really depends on how they see his SS defense (or Cesar's).

[tom81]

C - Alfaro, Knapp
IF - Santana, Hernandez, Crawford, Franco, Valentin, Florimon
OF - Herrera, Hoskins, Altherr, Williams, Quinn
SP- Nola, Velazquez, Pivetta, Lively
RP - Hutchison, Neris, Neshek, Hunter, Morgan, Garcia, Ramos, Milner

After 10 days Arrieta comes up, Florimon or Valentin goes down. When Kingery comes up, then either the remaining IF or Quinn goes down.

I agree with andyb's opening day roster. I'm guessing that Valentin goes down when Arrieta gets called up and that Williams goes down when Kingery gets called up. I also think that there is a small chance that Williams is the first one to go down. He has had a terrible spring, .552 OPS in 43 PA with not a single walk. This team wants to win out the chute and really values OBA and controlling the strike zone. Altherr will be getting most of the starts and Florimon, Valentin and Quinn give you much more flexibility for a 4 man bench being switch hitters that can play both the IF and OF. Williams will need steady AB's to get his stroke back and AAA will give him that chance.

[andyb]

Lots of roster nuggets from Gelb here. We already know about Hutchison (and Rupp). Talks about Valentin and versatility as needed on the 4-man bench and that being a bit of a problem for Quinn as having him on the bench means you might want to pinch run him for the 4 slow positions (catcher, Franco, Hoskins, Santana) that are usually in the lineup when they get on base in the 7th inning or later. Quinn playing some infield helps, but I think they see Valentin as better able to pick up any glove short of pitcher and catcher. Kingery also does some of the same things (in different ways) than Quinn. He is also fast so would be a PR option and he can play middle infield and CF. So hard to see Kingery and Quinn together potentially though I suppose it is possible if their defense is good enough at SS.

Other stuff. Altherr winning the bulk of the playing time in RF (tom81 may be right about Williams though I do not think they send him down until a month of poor play dictates that). Expect lots of minor league shuffling in the bullpen. And maybe Seranthony by August.

Nine Phillies observations as spring training winds down and...

[phillychuck]

So if they DL Arrieta until he gets his first start, who is the last relief pitcher? Curtis? Milner? Signing from another team? I'd assume it would be a LH reliever.

[andyb]

So if they DL Arrieta until he gets his first start, who is the last relief pitcher? Curtis? Milner? Signing from another team? I'd assume it would be a LH reliever.

My guess is Milner over Curtis. I think they want to stay on the current 40-man for the short term unless someone they really like gets released somewhere.

[andyb]

Looks like the Phillies have announced the plan for Arrieta. First start Sunday April 8th and it looks like they plan to have a 10-day DL stint for him before that.

https://sports.yahoo.com/phillies-set-date-jake-arrietas-211115633.html?src=rss

So I think this seals having 4 starters plus Hutchison on the opening day roster.

[David_Criss]

With Arrieta on the DL

SP: Nola, Lively, Eflin, Velasquez, Hutchison
BB: Neris, Garcia, Neshek, Hunter, Morgan, Milner, Ramos
CA: Alfaro, Knapp
Inf: Santana, Hernandez, Crawford, Franco
OF: Hoskins, Herrera, Altherr
Bench: Williams, Quinn, Florimon, Valentin

This leaves Pivetta and Thompson as the final 2 cuts to start at AAA. Or keep Thompson and let Valentin start at AAA playing everyday.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Kingery to make the 25 man roster per the tv announcers.

[zambonir]

I agree with andyb's opening day roster. I'm guessing that Valentin goes down when Arrieta gets called up and that Williams goes down when Kingery gets called up. I also think that there is a small chance that Williams is the first one to go down. He has had a terrible spring, .552 OPS in 43 PA with not a single walk. This team wants to win out the chute and really values OBA and controlling the strike zone.

I don't think Williams is going to be gone or demoted quite so fast, but overall, it's true - if they are going to let Kingery play the OF and Williams can't take a walk, he's definitely on notice. But for now (literally, now that he's made the team) it'll be Kingery over Quinn or one of the utility guys.

[el-pietro]

So assuming we see Kingery move around a lot and we see the catchers and right fielders share time I think we could potentially see something like the following
Given 6 games in a week:
Alfaro and Knapp split time so they get ~3 games a week at catcher. Maybe one is more likely to start 4 and the other 2.
Santana starts 5 games at first base each week with one rest day.
Hernandez starts 5 games at second base each week with one rest day.
Franco starts 5 games at third base each week with one rest day.
Crawford starts 5 games at first base each week with one rest day.
Hoskins starts 4 games in left field each week and one day at first base with one rest day.
Herrera starts 5 games in centre field each week with one rest day.
Williams and Altherr start ~4 days a week in right and left field. One day each in left and three days in right.
That leaves 4 days for Kingery at Second, Short, Third and Centre. Does that make sense?
Or do we see Kingery take two days at second and third and another day at short? Kingery could also start at left with Altherr in centre.
I know it won't actually be as straight forward as this with injuries and match ups and form dictating but over the course of the season you would see Alfaro and Knapp with about 81 games each at catcher unless one puts themselves drastically ahead of the other.
Santana/Hernandez/Franco/Crawford/Hoskins/Herrera all get about 135 games
Kingery/Altherr/Williams with about 108 games.

Most likely Altherr and Alfaro end up with more games than Knapp and Williams. Also Knapp probably takes some games at first.

At the end of this exercise I'm even more confused than I was before. I'm excited to watch this team this year, at least for the first couple of months. I gave up around May last year as it wasn't worth my effort and lack of sleep to follow a really bad team and so I missed a lot of the late season excitement, though I did keep an eye on Hoskins stats. I'm hoping this team can keep me interested beyond the halfway point and has a chance at a late season push for the wildcard.

[David_Criss]

At first Kingery on the 25-man opening day roster had me scratching my head. Shouldn't he be playing everyday? Then again, having rookies play a year at the Major League level before being thrust into FT action makes some sense and could give them more of a hunger and erase some of the butterflies, I guess. Then again, if he is the Phillies future at 2B, having him become a utility player doesn't make much sense.....

[Squire]

Roman Quinn and Zac Curtis optioned to LHV this morning.

[Lawman]

Matt Gelb (MattGelb)

[andyb]

Gives them a few months to evaluate Franco IMO. Kingery also has shown aptitude at multiple positions so I don't think this would hurt his 2B development that much if it put it off by a year.

I like the fact that we basically have 2 extra starters on this team. So we are not putting Peter Bourjos and Florimon types in the starting lineup that much. We have one extra OF and IF and a manager committed to making sure our starting 8 + 3 all get regular starts. The +3 includes the 2nd catcher, Kingery, and Williams/Altherr.

[fish]

Roman Quinn and Zac Curtis optioned to LHV this morning.

That's a bummer, i was over the moon about an opening day roster that I thought was going to include Kingery, Valentin, Knapp and Quinn. I've really enjoyed watching Quinn play this spring and really don't want to waste bullets using him at AAA waiting for an injury.

I guess this means they feel the only way to get Kingery enough playing time is to include him in the outfield mix.

[bigegypt0417]

Eflin has been sent down so Lively wins the spot.

[el-pietro]

Does that mean we have 5 starters left including or excluding Arrieta?

[el-pietro]

I'm assuming its 5 including Arrietta
Nola
Arrieta
Velasquez
Pivetta
Lively?

Meaning they most likely go with 4 starters until Arrieta is ready.

[zambonir]

I don't think the term "utility player" as we generally have understood it can be applied to Kingery, unless you also want to apply it to Ben Zobrist or Chris Taylor. I mean, you can, it's technically correct, but if a guy is getting 500 ABs and putting up 5.0 WAR who cares how he's doing it? (And also, their utility may be part of the reason they are able to do it).

I do think Florimon's utility is why he beat out Quinn, Quinn just wouldn't have gotten enough ABs, and since Florimon and Kingery can play all of the same positions that's also better for substitutions and double-switches.