GDT 9/12/21 Colorado Rockies (Feltner) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Nola)

[zambonir]

Indeed, they changed the manager after 2019 and they changed the GM after 2020 so the players are pretty much the only option left (plus a fair # of contracts are up and I don't think Joe's job is in danger. Though I also think he's very average, and I bet there are multiple coaching staff changes - much like when Gillick kept Charlie.

I don't think we should really start the hot stove thread yet, but only three players are untouchable, and we still don't have a single new homegrown player you can pencil into the starting eight in the first half of next season (just the three old ones who already lost their jobs this year, plus MM).

[xogfog]

I think the three untouchables you are alluding to are Harper, Realmuto and Wheeler. I personally like Hoskins, even though he has dry patches, his hot streaks are epic.

[kmc1019]

I would say that much of the Phillies roster is "untouchable" in a different way: either so mediocre in talent or having such bad contracts that the team cannot upgrade from them via trade without also adding additional prospect assets. Which, of course, we largely do not have either.

[zambonir]

Yup, though you can be really good and still not be untouchable! I wouldn't be in any rush to give up Nola either, but they're the two most valuable/tradeable assets IMO. Segura is the other, but much less so given his age/salary/single year of control.

And easier said than done to move any of those guys while actually making the team better.

I don't think the Phillies have that many bad players or contracts weighing them down at this point; Segura probably would require the Phillies to include $ but he still has value. Didi you would just hope to unload at 50% for no real return. Kingery's obviously another but he doesn't make that much. Of course they'll still need new players for some of those positions. Particularly if they aren't going to exceed the CBT, Dombrowski has to hit on some better mid-range acquisitions, whether via free agency or winning a few trades.

[julio]

I don't think we should really start the hot stove thread yet, but only three players are untouchable, and we still don't have a single new homegrown player you can pencil into the starting eight in the first half of next season (just the three old ones who already lost their jobs this year, plus MM).

I'm not sure I agree. We're not mathematically eliminated, but at this point, I think we're kidding ourselves if we still think we'll make the post-season.

On the question of off-season change, I did a quick look (may have missed something but...). Quick count of eight free agents, two buyout candidates, and eight arbitration-eligibles, as many as five of whom might be non-tender candidates. I expect lots of changes.

[zambonir]

Well, by all means, if you or someone actually wants to start the hot stove thread, I don't think it will be the thing that keeps the Phillies from catching the Braves. And this team making the post-season, even if they somehow get all the way to the NLCS, wouldn't necessarily change the conversation anyway.

[julio]

Well, by all means, if you or someone actually wants to start the hot stove thread, I don't think it will be the thing that keeps the Phillies from catching the Braves.

No, what keeps the Phils from catching the Braves will be their inconsistent play. I just don't expect them to suddenly stop blowing winnable games, even against weak opponents.

I don't know about starting the off-season discussion - but I found myself compiling the lists I mentioned - I guess because I was updating rosters, and I didn't see much point in trying to figure out what moves they might make to salvage the next three weeks. I just don't see that happening.

[mdougherty12]

this one is worse because we are a generally dominant home team and a generally terrible road team (which is also why we made it right against Arizona. But not these guys).

(ok, "dominant" might be a stretch but they have a .571 WP and that's probably the bare minimum pace they have to keep for all the games from here).

One interesting thing about the 2021 Phillies is that they have a huge home/road split for W-L record (.563 WP vs. .444), but their run differential is virtually identical (-11 in 71 games at home vs. -8 in 72 games on the road).

[EDmuch]

Unless we exceed the CBT we are just whistling past the graveyard next year as well. I would hope they look at Buxton for CF but he would be expensive.

[andyb]

In concept I agree that the only way to improve is by exceeding the CBT, though remember we do NOT know what the threshold will be since there will be a new CBA (or none in which case nothing matters).

If the Phillies are shooting to retool quickly, I do think they need to consider trades like Buxton where them picking up salary is an important piece of the trade. Buxton might be too high profile to really be a move that helps long term though, since he would cost a couple of our top 10 prospects. I think they need to be looking at deals for players that are good, but not great. Players that are just making $5 million plus in arbitration and have financially squeezed teams like Kansas City and Tampa ready to move them.

The Phillies DO have a lot of room to make these second tier trades for big salaries with the salaries coming off the board after 2021. I just hope DD approaches the offseason with a long term perspective. It is not worth just spending money to compete because we are not good enough. We need to spend money and get younger and more athletic at the same time. It is not inconceivable that Nola and Realmuto could rebound and someone like Bohm could get back on track. Heck, half of our lineup troubles are due to Bohm underperforming. If Bohm were performing as he is capable of we could freely platoon Didi at SS and trot out a much deeper lineup.

[EDmuch]

I think Buxton is a FA after this season.

[bkox]

Buxton is a FA after 2022.

I love love love the potential Buxton has... But we have to consider these facts. He turns 28 in the offseason. Hes going into his Free Agent season only ever playing more than 100 games in a season ONCE and even that year he had a short IL trip.. Even in the 60 game season he only managed 40 games. His 2014 and 2015 minor league seasons were limited to about 100 total games because of injuries

And if you want him as an FA after 2022... you will probably need to commit at least 5 years to a then 29 year old injury prone player... and probably in the area of 20-25M per year if he has a productive and realitively healthy 2022.

[zambonir]

I think the question with Buxton then becomes, can you afford to get him for just one season, and then see how it works out/ how he holds up, or will the trade price be too high for anything other than a deal where he also agrees to an extension?

I would like to think that even Didi could rebound next year... but only at the plate. Maybe they need San Francisco's coaching staff.

I'm sure they are going to sign one major position player FA. Realistically, 2022 should probably be a bunch of $5 million players and one-year deals, because Bohm, Stott, Marchan and a few pitchers you don't want to give up are all they really have to trade with (except in the case of a major leaguer for major leaguer deal). Keep the team above water again and hope that Bohm bounces back and two of Kingery, Haseley and Moniak can at least contribute off the bench (though probably one of Haseley and Moniak gets traded, albeit not as the cornerstone piece).

[andyb]

I think a Buxton deal only comes with a long term signing agreement. He probably wants $200 million which he is not going to get now. He would also be stupid to take only $70 million that the Twins offered. With his injury history he needs more guarantee even if whatever contract he signs has incentives.

So to me, that means something in the $100 million to $125 million range for like 6 years is possible. The Phillies bet on the larger guarantee with his injury history, and the player gives up $200 million though incentives could certainly get close to that. A Buxton deal really only works for the Phillies if it contains the possibility of a long term contract that would work out in their favor.

[bkeich]

I'm sure they are going to sign one major position player FA. Realistically, 2022 should probably be a bunch of $5 million players and one-year deals, because Bohm, Stott, Marchan and a few pitchers you don't want to give up are all they really have to trade with (except in the case of a major leaguer for major leaguer deal). Keep the team above water again and hope that Bohm bounces back and two of Kingery, Haseley and Moniak can at least contribute off the bench (though probably one of Haseley and Moniak gets traded, albeit not as the cornerstone piece).

I agree that you are correct, 2022 will be the same plan. But sadly that has been the plan for years now, and it isnt going to work (again). All of the players you mentioned are either average (Bohm) or dreams (Kingery, Haseley, Moniak). They arent going to get us there, in fact, the dreams are for the most part on their way to regular jobs as they simply are not ML players.

So, another .500 year. Another just miss the playoffs. Another "if this and this had happened we would have made it". This core turned out not to be a core at all, we are basically a duplicate of 2012 now, we will keep trying but with no likely success and then rebuild. Harper must be ready to shoot his agent by now.

[Philsmania]

On cue, the Phillies sent season ticket holders postseason invoices yesterday!

[Philsmania]

Harper must be ready to shoot his agent by now.

He also has 330,000,000 reasons to be very happy with him.

Once his back starts acting up for good, if he's still stuck in Philadelphia, don't be surprised if like Len Dykstra and David Wright, he goes quietly into the night collecting his money.

[bkox]

Harper must be ready to shoot his agent by now.

I dont think Harper let Boras dictate where he was going. If Boras had been in charge of all that.. Harper would of had an opt out after 4-5 years like most big Boras contracts.

[zambonir]

I certainly hope to be proven wrong! Give me a couple of blockbuster trades, a busting of the CBT, and a few lucky breaks (either on our own longshot guys or the mid-level vets).

I really doubt Harper will be here in 2026. The contract doesn't make him untradeable. Stanton, A-Rod, Cano and even Arenado were all traded. Most of the other record-breaking contracts are still fairly new (Harper included). And his talk of wanting Philly to be home isn't 100% real, I don't think. Those kids will go to school in Nevada I bet. And he's not gonna want to spend his last few great years on a bad team.

On the bright side, Mike Trout will represent the Phillies in that All-Star game

[Philsmania]

All of the players you mentioned are either average (Bohm)

Bohm has had a very bad season, no question, but I think it's too early to chalk him up as just average. Now, it's fair to ask if he's yet another young plyer they broke through bad coaching but we'll have to see on that one.