GDT 8/28/18 Washington Nationals (Scherzer) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Nola)

[ButlerBulldog]

This is what happens when you have to have so many pitchers and such a short bench. Velasquez absolutely was the right move to put there. Let's say they tie it an go extras - who is your pinch hitter? Arrieta?

I’m not questioning why Velasquez was used, as I know he’s a good athlete. I’ve a huge problem with him apparently not knowing the rules regarding tagging up after a fly out.

[Lawman]

I stand corrected. Wathan had his hands up - not to tag up - and VV had his head down not looking. He didn't see the coach.

[ButlerBulldog]

I stand corrected. Wathan had his hands up - not to tag up - and VV had his head down not looking. He didn't see the coach.

[LoneStarPhan]

Speaking of playoffs, I always root for the Phillies to win and to make the post season, but I was thinking a couple horrendous losses ago that I would be embarrassed to have them play like this in post season games. At least for now there are many baseball fans that still think the Phillies have had a good season.

Again, I cannot help thinking about September 1964. As we went into the 7th inning tonight with a 3-0 lead, I thought to myself that they just couldn't blow this game. Not again. I remember thinking in 1964 that okay, they lost 3, lost 4, lost 5 in a row, but all they need is a win and they are going to be okay. But then it was a 6th loss, 7th, 8th, 9th, and finally 10th loss in a row before the win came. One win in that ten and they at worse, tie for first. Win 2 in that 10 and they win the NL in 1964 and go to the World Series. That was an enchanting season for Phillies fans like me, who was too young to really appreciate the 1950 team. I really started following them seriously in 1952 and I really had not experience them being in a serious pennant race in September until 1964.

This season is different in that I see them improving for 2019. I expected them to be around .500 and hoped they could win 80 some games. They might still do that, but we sure have seen them exposed in the area of defense. Defense in important and defense wins (and loses) games. The shoddy play we are seeing has to be corrected. But again, it seems like I watch them take the lead, I see good things happening, and then I see it all collapse into another crushing loss. It just seems inevitable that they are going to blow the game. It is just unreal.

[Philsmania]

This is the worst stretch of baseball we've seen since June of 2015 when Sandberg was still managing.

[ButlerBulldog]

This is the worst stretch of baseball we've seen since June of 2015 when Sandberg was still managing.

I wouldn’t call what Sandberg was doing “managing.” He was awful. I also post on a Star Trek board, and the Cubs fans who hang out there are grateful that the Phillies hired Sandberg, as it meant he’d never manage the Cubs.

[Lawman]

With all due respects to @allentown I think it's almost time to begin discussing Phillies' offseason moves.

[LoneStarPhan]

Standings:

Atlanta 74-57
Philadelphia 70-62 4.5 GB
Washington 67-66 8.0 GB

Sadly, Phillies now closer to the Nationals than to the Braves.

IF the Phillies can play .500 from here on out, they win 85 games. This should still be very doable, but they just have to stop the stupid mistakes and shoddy play. 85 games won probably does not make post season play.

[DurhamBull]

IF the Phillies can play .500 from here on out, they win 85 games. This should still be very doable, but they just have to stop the stupid mistakes and shoddy play. 85 games won probably does not make post season play.

85 wins would have felt like an ambitious outcome at the beginning of the season, so I'm glad they have a solid shot at it. They've played themselves into some losses recently. They're a good (not great!) team playing in a weak division. We're seeing some ugly regression to the mean here.

[zambonir]

But he was out at second not third no? So if he ignored the coach's signal that's just another, albeit meaningless, mistake.

[EastFallowfield]

Think that anyone who’s seen as much baseball as VV has would know how to tag up, Doesn’t seem that complex. You always hear fans saying how they could have caught that ball or hit that pitcher and it’s probably not true but I will state that I could have tagged up without leaving early.

[Lawman]

If he pays attention to the coach he's on second, 2 outs, and Franco is up.

[bkeich]

This is what happens when a pitcher (inexperienced runner) is used in a situation like this late in the game. He shouldn't have been tagging up and, when he did, he was in an unfamiliar situation.

Velasquez is an inexperienced runner in MLB, but he shouldnt be an inexperienced baserunner. He has been playing baseball for 20+ years, this is something you learn in PeeWees. He made a mistake, but the problem is the whole team seems to make these kinds of mistakes.

[Lawman]

Yup. I just don't have a better explanation for it.

[allentown]

Yes, this loss really hurt our chances. The path to a possible post-season berth seemed to be limited to winning every game Nola started and half of the other starts. This is yet another game which should have been a win.

I think the Phillies analytic conclusion that good defense doesn't matter and you just throw in your best 8 batters at any half-way plausible position has been shown to be flawed. The follow-on conclusion from this is if you can't field an adequate team, including in-game changes, with the very short bench, then you need to learn to live with a smaller pitching staff.

[Philsmania]

I think the Phillies analytic conclusion that good defense doesn't matter and you just throw in your best 8 batters at any half-way plausible position has been shown to be flawed.

This is what I said a couple of weeks ago. That is the "old-sabermetric school" of thinking. I remember butting heads on listservs with sabermetirc types back in the '90s who insisted precisely the above, that defense doesn't matter, just put the best--and usually biggest, most strapping if even somewhat slow-footed--offensive player you can find at each position and all the runs they create at the plate will more than take care of any runs their poor defense causes. Advances in analytics have moved on from that point of view yet Klentak and Kapler seemed to have applied a throwback approach.

[andyb]

I don't think the Phillies are looking at things like the 1990s when teams could not quantify the value of defense. I just think they gambled that defense was less important in the era of 3-outcome baseball and shifts. 3-outcome means fewer balls in play. That affects defensive importance.

On the shifts they might have underestimated the value of good defensive players fielding balls in shifts. Most of the advanced defensive stats do not look at individuals in shifts. The shift stats are more team-based because it is really hard to calculate what individual fielders should do in shifted positions. "Hard to calculate" is not an excuse however. Clearly having better fielders would lead to better shift outcomes.

My guess is the team pulls back a bit this offseason and makes a conscious effort to be better defensively.

[mdougherty12]

538 just put out about the "positionless" trend in MLB:

Baseball Positions Are Starting To Lose Their Meaning

[zambonir]

If you don't use it you lose it. Nearly every pitcher in the major league was a great hitter in high school or college. That doesn't just go away because the major league pitching is so elite, it goes away because they no longer get the reps (both in BP and on game days). The same is true for baserunning, what should be obvious or instinctive no longer is, and being put in an unfamiliar situation led to poor focus. You'd think he would have gotten one thing or the other right though - if he wasn't looking at Wathan, he should have read the play correctly. But, he was already running on a catch that hadn't been made (just like in football except he wasn't also the guy making the catch).

[Lucky_Beagle]

A win on Nola's record and a loss to Scherzer might have made a difference in voting in a couple of months to some voters.