GDT 6/12/22 Arizona Diamondbacks (Nelson, K) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Suárez, R)

[zambonir]

Who knows, maybe the team's big deadline move is to acquire another starting pitcher and move Ranger back to the bullpen. But everyone else has to stay healthy and effective between now and then first.

[andyb]

Friday doubleheader might be competition for the 5th starter spot. Suarez and Falter. Falter might stay if he has a good outing and Suarez may be the one better suited to pitch out of the bullpen between the two of them.

[allentown]

Suarez may be the one better suited to pitch out of the bullpen between the two of them.

Giving up 3 runs in the first inning, after having total warmup time he wanted isn't an indication that he'd be better out of pen than starting. A bad start, for sure. His last start was a good one. He's been up and down, inconsistent all season, but he does worst on his first 15 pitches of a start, which hardly shouts reliever potential.

[zambonir]

Yes but we have a larger and more relevant sample size than a few slow starts as a starter this year - his actual relief pitching last year.

I don't think his spot is actually that endangered though. He's a serviceable young fifth starter with whom you can be patient, not a Matt Moore you have to give up on. He is still giving the Phillies a chance to win almost every game and that was the case today as well (they are 7-4 in his starts).

In the long run, the Phillies probably need a better 4th starter who isn't Gibson or Suarez, if Suarez doesn't work his way back to something closer than last year. But for now both are fine (and they have identical ERAs and ERA+s).

[LoneStarPhan]

Stubbs was the only Phillie to take the mound today who did not walk anyone. Ranger walked 4 and the bullpen added 7 more. Walk 11 and don’t expect a win. Let’s hope they got a lot of bad outings out of the way today, and get back to good pitching tomorrow.

Sure need to beat the Marlins. It’s about time.

[andyb]

he does worst on his first 15 pitches of a start, which hardly shouts reliever potential.

It is the history in the bullpen. Also remember the top 3 hitters (the first 15 pitches) are the best hitters on the other team. Lots of starters have issues in the first inning.

[phillychuck]

If Ranger is your 5th starter, you would expect up-and-down performance. I think I read some analytics once that said a 4.50-5.00-ish ERA starter is more helpful to the team with high variance rather than consistent mediocrity.

Rather 1-2 runs/6 IP starts mixed with 4-5 runs/6IP starts mixed rather than consistent 3-4 runs per 6 IP.

[andyb]

Key thing there is probably that getting close to 6 innings a start is most important (knowing there can't be too many starts giving up more than 4 or 5 runs). Ranger does find a way to stay in games when things go south like yesterday. He just really does not have swing and miss stuff though since there is more of a book on him. His command needs to be precise and it just isn't these days. Not that Falter is likely any better of course. Just a different look with similar command and stuff issues.

[Sabin]

Key thing there is probably that getting close to 6 innings a start is most important (knowing there can't be too many starts giving up more than 4 or 5 runs). Ranger does find a way to stay in games when things go south like yesterday.

Don't know If I'd say that just yet. If you chalk his four April starts to bringing his arm into form, it leaves him with eight outings and 41.0 innings in May/June. Over those he's given up 3+ ER in half while averaging 4.2 IP; over all eight May/June starts he carries a 5.1 IP average outing.

So while he has shown to be fairly consistent in his length of outing it's still well shy of six innings, IMO, especially given the current lack of quality middle relief. Of course, the two caveats are SSS and one's own definition of "getting close to 6 innings."

[andyb]

Many pitchers would have been out in the first or second though yesterday. Suarez was missing his spots by 3-6 inches and did keep his cool and manage to stay in the game.

But I did bring this topic up in general because for whatever reason Suarez has not been good enough this year and given his bullpen success last year it is a reasonable question to ask whether he might be best suited to a 2-inning bullpen role. He has not been great in his first inning this year but he was very good last year.

[Sabin]

Many pitchers would have been out in the first or second though yesterday.

That's fine, but I thought the discussion was around he (or the 5th starter in general) being able to last six. To that end, it took Suarez four starts in August of last year to break six innings, before then averaging 6+ through six September starts. He was obviously going to be slow out of the gates this season, and indeed is averaging less than 5 IP through 12 games.

I think your point about his issues with missing bats this year is likely having a significant impact on what we're seeing. With his swinging strikes down nearly six percentage points from last year, his BBs are up significantly (already 26 in 59 IP this year, vs. 33 in 106 last year), as are his HR (already at 6 vs. 4). I don't think any of this portends much yet aside from him being unlikely to match the numbers he posted in 2021, but did many of us really expect that to happen? If it were me, I'd still be sending him out there every fifth game at this point, but I'd be trying to find a way to add another inning to his outings.

[andyb]

Suarez was on pitch limits last year most of the time.

The comment was more about really short starts though, not calculating the average length of his starts this year that has been bad. We agree Suarez has not been good this year. But it also can be true that Suarez has the ability to work through adversity better than most pitchers.

Bottom line is I think Falter is competing Friday for the starting spot since they are both stretched out and on rotation for the same day. It might be a good thing if Falter can win the job, because it might also be a good thing to have a 2-inning LHP in the bullpen.

[zambonir]

It might be a good thing if Falter can win the job, because it might also be a good thing to have a 2-inning LHP in the bullpen.

Of course they could also make Falter that, he just hasn't had as much success as Ranger (in either role).

Falter has had one good start and one bad start this season, but even the good one was only 4 2/3 IP. I doubt he's an upgrade, nor a source of greater innings/good third-time-through results. I don't think the odds of an improvement would be worth the disruption. And what happens if Falter's worse? Then you either have to switch Ranger back or you're hurting for a new SP approaching the All-Star break.

Both of them may just need a piggyback option. I suppose a solid two-inning reliever could play that role once a week, and a later-inning role once a week.

[andyb]

The missing element though is how good Falter has been in AAA both last year and this year. Still a relatively small sample (54 innings across 2 seasons) but it is not like we have huge samples on many pitchers who are AAA options. Appel has been decent for a couple of months after years of mediocrity. Falter has 3 BBs against 28 Ks in AAA and that ratio is a pretty good predictor of future success.

I am under no illusion that Falter is great. He has been pretty good in AAA though and deserves a chance. And so far in his career he has been a starter 95% of the time and 3 major league starts (which were mediocre but often in circumstances where he was not fully stretched out) really don't mean that much.

Remember we need innings from non-bad pitchers. Falter as a starter combined with Suarez as a long reliever might actually be the way to get the most non-bad innings out of the major league roster. Does anyone have any confidence that Kelly or Appel, both of whom have lesser AAA stats compared to Falter, will be better than Falter?

[bkeich]

Honestly, it would make more sense to me to have a combined starts with Suarez and Falter. Between them they should be able to go at least 7 innings, if not 9. This would give the bullpen an off or light day once through the lineup.

Having both available and stretched out also allows for one to fill in when an injury happens.

[Taudawg]

Suarez and Falter don’t look similar but their stuff is almost the same - fastball, curve, slider, change up all have same motion, average velocity and spin. I don’t know if that’s a recipe for success in combined start.

[zambonir]

I don't think it's ideal to tandem two leftys.

I also don't think the Phillies actually have a problem here. Suarez is good enough. Nelson is probably an adequate middle reliever for now (if not a guy you'd want getting six outs in the 7th-8th against top hitters). Kelly is getting a look in the long role but probably either he or Nelson are gone when the roster shrinks. Falter is best held in reserve for spot starts or in case of injury. And you've got all these guys coming off of IL. A month from now, maybe they make a more drastic change, or will be looking for a starter and reliever (probably both) at the deadline.

I think if Ranger did lose his rotation spot right now they'd probably send him to LV, not convert him back.

[andyb]

One has to think that Alvarado is in a tenuous position also. His first appearance (after good outings in AAA) was the same lack of command. Now we have multiple lefties getting healthy or coming up (Falter and Emanuel are starters, Sherriff and Romero are relievers). We have already used the option on him so they could easily do it a second time.

[zambonir]

Yeah, Alvarado might be on the fence but he probably still gets more slack due to his stuff and experience.

Clearly we have no idea what the team's internal evaluations of these guys are. Thomson said they were very high on Kelly's strikeout rate (but the story noted he was similar to Norwood). And who knows if Sheriff or Emanuel would have even made the team out of spring training (Emanuel as one of the tandem guys). I would think they also need to take it slow with Romero, who was not looking that good before he got hurt (question being, was it due to the injury or had his first time through the league expired).

[andyb]

Rehab clocks are 20 days for position players and 30 days for pitchers. So they will need decisions on Emanuel and Sherriff by early July and Romero by mid-July unless they have setbacks. I think Romero is virtually guaranteed to keep his 40-man spot. Alvarado too. Everybody else (Emanuel, Sherriff, Kelly, eventually Appel) will have to earn it. All 4 of those guys could easily slip through waivers though most of them probably have enough service time to declare as free agents if they wanted to at that time.