GDT 6/12/22 Arizona Diamondbacks (Nelson, K) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Suárez, R)

[bkeich]

I don't know, it seems like Suarez is in a bit of a slump and without looking up the numbers it seems like he has trouble later in his start.

If s guy goes into the start knowing he is only going 4 innings (for example) I think the approach can be different.

Two lefties isn't ideal, I agree, maybe pair Falter with Gibson instead.

The game is moving towards more shared starts like this (I think). I know the old school people think this is silly, but I get why it is a good idea.

[andyb]

The number of pitchers is dropping though if they keep to the 13 pitcher limit. If you have a 5-man rotation and a tandem starter you only have 7 other relievers. Getting 2-3 innings every 5 days out of the tandem starter is not enough as that usually means you are only getting like 4 out of the starter.

I like the concept of someone coming in to pitch 2+ innings after the starter, but ideally you want guys who can do that and then turn around and pitch again on 2-3 days rest.

[Sabin]

Suarez was on pitch limits last year most of the time.

The comment was more about really short starts though, not calculating the average length of his starts this year that has been bad. We agree Suarez has not been good this year. But it also can be true that Suarez has the ability to work through adversity better than most pitchers.

Bottom line is I think Falter is competing Friday for the starting spot since they are both stretched out and on rotation for the same day. It might be a good thing if Falter can win the job, because it might also be a good thing to have a 2-inning LHP in the bullpen.

My apologies - I've been spinning a few more plates than normal lately, and I'm just not following your train of thought. When @phillychuck posted about an article positing the greater benefit of a 5th starter with higher variance between six-inning starts, you were, I assume, replying to him when you underscored the "key thing there" being the six innings. You then followed with a slightly vague comment about Suarez finding a way to stay in games and work through rough patches.

One was left to assume you whether or not you were tying that comment to the statement it immediately followed - about getting "close to six innings a start" - and whether or not you felt Suarez was capable of doing it. I assumed "yes" to both. But when I expressed some doubt given the length of his post-April outings, you pivoted, claiming many other pitchers would not have squeezed out the 4.1 innings Suarez had against Arizona.

Again, that's fine - I don't have any immediate data to lend an argument for or against that view, but I've certainly seen Suarez work through some jambs while on the mound, so we'll go with it. But for me the point then comes back to whether one thinks he is capable of at least averaging in the neighborhood of six innings a start. (And, yes, pitch counts were used last season to stretch his arm out as they positioned him to a starting role - that's why I mentioned the August build to September, as well as this April).

I think you and I are mostly in agreement as to how Suarez projects and the team's options in using him, but some of the comments you're making - many pitchers would have been out in the 1st/2nd inning... Suarez was on pitch limits last year... the comment was more about really short starts though (Whose comment? Yours? Okay, which one?)... e.g., are coming off as disjointed.

But again, it may just be me.

[andyb]

Small sample sizes make all arguments a little disjointed and Suarez has had a strange set of samples (both good and bad). We do agree on how he projects. I just think he can be better in shorter roles though of course we need another starter to beat him out.

[Sabin]

Agreed. We'll see how Falter fares Friday, but unless he really wows it seems a bit six of one, half-dozen of the other with respect to either as the 5th starter unless they really feel the need to bump Suarez into the 'pen. But they've got more issues there at present than a Suarez can fix, so they may just as well keep both he and Falter stretched out in case of injury to the starting rotation.

[allentown]

Suarez has gradually increased his IP from 4.5 in April to just under 5 in May to just under 6 average in June. He has a .500 W-L record this season. The disappointment comes from his not being nearly as good as he was last year, in just about any stat you choose to look at: ERA, K-rate, BB-rate, HR-rate, H-rate, and W-L % with a better offensive team. With all of that, he still has a slightly positive WAR. Should be perfectly acceptable for a #5 starter, but a huge slide from being an almost 6 WAR pitcher last season. He should just be coming into his prime and that hasn't happened this year, thus far.

[Sabin]

I don't know that I take much from two June starts, especially since one was 7.0 innings, the other 4.1, and these followed three starts of 3.0, 4.1, and 4.1 innings, respectfully. Upthread I combined May with June, where he's average sits just shy of 5.1.

As far as his pitch performance, I don't know of many that were expecting another 6 WAR season from him (I wasn't, at least), but I'd agree that he's been a bit disappointing thus far. That said, I agree he's an acceptable fifth start - though he kinda has to be on a club lacking a viable upgrade - I'd just like to see him last a full six more often. But of course part of that pressure emanates from another sub-standard bullpen.

[zambonir]

If we're talking just June starts Kyle Gibson was in trouble before today.

But I kind of think that is or isn't the real issue. A so-so Suarez is fine so long as Gibson is a fairly reliable #4 and Eflin is healthy. But none of those things are certain and any of them could be in need of an upgrade. But not, IMO, a replacement from AAA.

OTOH, we seem to have two aces for the first time... well, ever actually, in this era. And that helps a lot.

[allentown]

OTOH, we seem to have two aces for the first time... well, ever actually, in this era. And that helps a lot.

I don't know how you are defining this era, but we certainly had 3 aces as recently as 2011.

[zambonir]

That was definitely a different era.

Pretty much meant since then, or really since they ended the rebuild (however ineptly). In theory the 2018 team was meant to have that though I don't think anyone really thought they were getting the 2014-2016 Arrieta. Of course nobody expected what Nola did that year either.