GDT 5/20/19 Philadelphia Phillies (Arrieta) @ Chicago Cubs (Darvish)

[julio]

If that usage pattern continues then spot relief outings might make sense - or going to a 4-man 80 pitch limit rotation. With a 2-3 inning long reliever slated to go each game.

How many long relievers do you envision? Two? Three? This represents a move away from "five starters" (which was "four starters" when I started following the Phillies!) to six (or seven) pitchers targeted to the first six/seven innings of games. Do you offset that with fewer one-inning guys in the bullpen for the last three innings? Or do the rosters expand again (beyond next season's 26) to accommodate 15-man bullpens? Or does MLB change the roster rules to allow a handful of guys "on" the ML roster, but "inactive" for individual games, or some such?

[tom81]

Neris and Morgan are the ones that have been better than expected.

Neris may be better than your expectations but he is in line with mine. He was an effective late innings pitcher in 2016 and 2017. He lost his command in the first half of 2018 and was terrible. When he came back he was lights out the second half. I expected him to continue this second half performance and he has.

[andyb]

How many long relievers do you envision? Two? Three? This represents a move away from "five starters" (which was "four starters" when I started following the Phillies!) to six (or seven) pitchers targeted to the first six/seven innings of games. Do you offset that with fewer one-inning guys in the bullpen for the last three innings? Or do the rosters expand again (beyond next season's 26) to accommodate 15-man bullpens? Or does MLB change the roster rules to allow a handful of guys "on" the ML roster, but "inactive" for individual games, or some such?

I think MLB sticks to 13 total pitchers and usage adapts to that. If shorter starts are part of the equation then you have 1 of 2 scenarios:

5 starters - assume 2 go 6-7 innings per outing (Nola and Eflin for example). Other 3 only go 4-5.
8 relievers - 3 designated as long men with at least 1 LHP. They are the tandem pitchers for the short starters and mop up if necessary. 3 back end relievers (say Neris, Morgan, Neshek now). 2 more middle guys for the 6th and 7th inning when your tandem fails or your 6 inning starter does not get there.

This only works if you can get your 3 bullpen long men into the 80-100 inning range because you want your other relievers still closer to 60 innings.

Scenario 2 - 4 starters, 80 pitches. 4 tandem relievers go with them and also pitch 60-80 pitches. LHP and RHP pairs encouraged among your 8 starters.
5 more relievers. 3 back end, 2 middle as before.

Tandem starters as a rule only really work with a shorter rotation. Would ML teams be bold enough to try this? Tampa might. It is hard to do so if you have any starters like Snell capable of doing more, but even under a 4-man rotation you could make sure Snell gets the 5th inning even if others only make it 3 or 4.

If this happened MLB would clearly need to change the 5-inning win rule for pitchers. Never made sense to me that a starter could go 4.2 and a reliever could get one out and a win anyway. Whoever is pitching when you take the lead should get the win.

[andyb]

Neris has had ERAs of 3.27, 2.58, 3.01, and 5.01. Are you really saying we should expect 1.77? I like Neris. He has been better than I expected but at a certain point he throws lots of splits and batters can lay off of that. He does not have a 98 mph fastball for when that happens. Expecting a 3.00 ERA out of Neris is reasonable. Sub 2 over a longer period would be exceeding expectations.

[julio]

If this happened MLB would clearly need to change the 5-inning win rule for pitchers. Never made sense to me that a starter could go 4.2 and a reliever could get one out and a win anyway. Whoever is pitching when you take the lead should get the win.

If you're trying to make sense of the rules for assigning wins to pitchers... the only rational arrangement is the same one they employed for "game-winning RBI" - abolish it altogether. Teams win games; individuals do not.

The "quality start" stat has its issues - but it makes more sense than assigning a "win" to a pitcher who gives up nine runs in six innings, because his team scored more than nine runs.

[andyb]

If you're trying to make sense of the rules for assigning wins to pitchers... the only rational arrangement is the same one they employed for "game-winning RBI" - abolish it altogether. Teams win games; individuals do not.

The "quality start" stat has its issues - but it makes more sense than assigning a "win" to a pitcher who gives up nine runs in six innings, because his team scored more than nine runs.

Wins have far more history than game winning RBIs. Wins are also assigned for goalies in hockey the same way without any time playing requirement. It may have little sabermetric value, but it still has historical value. The pitcher of record when their team takes the lead should get the win, regardless of which inning they are pitching.

[julio]

Wins have far more history than game winning RBIs. Wins are also assigned for goalies in hockey the same way without any time playing requirement. It may have little sabermetric value, but it still has historical value. The pitcher of record when their team takes the lead should get the win, regardless of which inning they are pitching.

Okay, I acknowledge that "wins" as assigned to individual pitchers aren't going away.

That said... You just posited that "wins" have historical value, and then argued that they should now be assigned in a way that flies in the face of that history?

[zambonir]

Maybe we can get Ken Giles at the trade deadline.

I'm sure it's true that every team has 2-4 bullpen injuries at any given time, but Robertson is meant to be their top guy and Hunter was one of their top four guys last year, and they are both pitchers who could give you 4-6 outs. So was Arano last year. I think the bullpen's been extremely good, except for Seranthony.

And yeah, I have yet to see another manager, let alone a fan, who actually knows how to manage a bullpen better, especially without any information (be it analytics or just how the player is feeling). Everybody hated Charlie's bullpen management too but all I remember is that it was better than Torre's and Maddon's when it had to be.

Going an extra inning with Seranthony (or Neris) is always going to be a gamble but so is going with the lesser pitcher (in this case, Nicasio, who wound up closing the game).

[andyb]

We'll see if Kimbrel wants a partial season overpaid make good contract in 2 weeks. 1 year/$20 million pro-rated (so like $12 million for the rest of the year) might get it done.

[tom81]

Neris had a 2.04 era when he came back last year in 20 appearances, just saying. But actually era in the sss for a reliever isn’t really that great an indicator. His whip is also pretty close too. I did expect Neris to be close to his second half last year, honestly probably somewhere between that level and his 2017 level. He will have some bad outings, it’s the real outlier not to have any.

[Austinfan]

Neris's splitter when he's on is unhittable, he can throw it at the knees and hitter flail. Like the Lidge slider.
Question is whether he can sustain the run from last year on an extended basis.

The demand on the bullpen makes inning eater pitchers more valuable, one problem with a lot of hard throwers is they run up counts and don't go deep into games, 7 pitch Ks are not the way to go 6-7 innings. Same with junk ballers who "nibble" and go deep into counts on a regular basis.

What I like about Eflin, Irvin and Eickhoff so far is they attack the K zone, means there will be games where they get knocked around, but they also keep the pitch count down and go 6-7 innings on a regular basis. And in the minors, and when drafting, I'd make that a priority.

If your starters average a half inning a game more, that's 80 innings your bullpen doesn't have to throw.

[Patchmk88]

Listen I’m glad we won the game but sending out a kid who has not been good this season and has never been good pitching a second inning is Not smart. Especially so when he just has a great inning and maybe gained some confidence. I mean did you see how broken he looked after giving up the three runs.

Following that up with not even having anyone warming up when throwing him back out for a 2nd inning is even dumber.

Following that up with watching him throw 4 balls no where near the zone and then warming up only one reliever who then could not get warm is just plain dumb.

Following that up with letting the kid stay in after another walk where even his strikes were borderline and then giving up a double is just incompetent.

At least that is the way I view it. By not just letting the kid have his one fantastic inning and instead trying to conserve arms, Gabe ended up using one or two more arms than he needed in the first place. That is not good bullpen management.

[el-pietro]

Every single comment you had up to the end of the game was calling out Kapler, and you went as far as to call him incompetent which is completely unfair in my opinion, especially as his bullpen has been above average this year.
You can question his choices in a game without going that far. Like I said, if hes at fault for the runs given up he must also be given credit for the outs, which you have been slow to do. We are also not fully aware of what circumstances there may have been for not having someone available. Maybe some pitchers were tired, or ill, or dealign with off field issues that meant he may not have felt comfortable bringing them in.
He may also have wanted to give Seranthony a chance to show he could get out of the inning, and have been willing to sacrifice the win if necessary. I have no reason to believe thats true but it is as possible as him being "incompetent".

This is baseball not football. Each individual game does not warrant getting so wound up about. Coaches and managers and players will make a mistake. If there is an obvious trend of similar mistakes being made then fair enough call that out, but Kaplers bullpen usage has been fine this year, which is borne out by the teams record and the fact that the bullpen is at least above average for the majors as a whole and the NL specifically.
Its easy to point at a run given up, or a loss and say "Well we would have won if he did x or y", but you have to look at the games the team has won and say "We might have lost if did didn't do x or y".

[zambonir]

I just don't think anybody really knows anything about bullpen usage, even in the age of analytics. The samples are always too small and the performances are always variable. He threw 11 pitches, what about the second inning was untenable for him? Not staying warmed up in the top half of the frame? Mental? Is it number of batters, number of pitches? Or maybe it was just luck (both the good and the bad innings).

Yeah, not doing anything after he gave up two walks was bad but again, nothing I haven't seen from every manager ever. They all make mistakes like that every year. Maybe a great manager makes 10 and a mediocre manager makes 15, I dunno.

And it's always hindsight. Seranthony might have escaped. Or Nicasio might have pitched that inning and still blown it.

I also think the team is actually willing to lose some games - especially so long as they continue to lead the division - until July 15th or so. Whether it's Seranthony or Alvarez or Ramos (before he got hurt) or even Morgan, it is still a development and auditioning process to test their limits. If Seranthony's confidence is actually that fragile that sending him out for a second inning was a development mistake, rather than just a mistake within the game, then maybe he does need to go to AAA.

[andyb]

I did expect Neris to be close to his second half last year, honestly probably somewhere between that level and his 2017 level. He will have some bad outings, it’s the real outlier not to have any.

Which is exactly my point. He has been better than expected so far. All this is to say that our base of relievers going into the season was pretty good. Losing Robertson and Hunter does not help, but most teams are losing a couple of bullpen arms by this point. What we have left (Neris, Morgan, Neshek, Dominguez) is better than what most teams have left after they lose a couple of their own arms. Which is why our results are better than average even if it may not feel that way.

[Patchmk88]

It not all about management of the game it is about management of the players. Seranthony was fantastic in his one inning and it was a much needed confident boost. He has never been good when pitching multiple innings. The stats show it. So instead of risking undoing the confidence that was just built up. Give him his great inning as something to build on.

I think Gabe is goofy but he’s a good players manager that they seem to like. I do not however like how he manages the bullpen. He often seems clueless and doesn’t have a feel.

It is the job of him and his bullpen coach to know if someone is sick or unavailable and plan accordingly. If his plan was to pitch Seranthony two innings, I think it was a dumb one. More important to me than blowing the lead is missing out on the opportunity to give Seranthony and cause for celebration in a job week done.

[Patchmk88]

Also we should be near the top of the bullpen ERA because our bullpen is stacked from a talent and depth standpoint. It doesn’t matter if you or I was managing the bullpen or Joe Torre was managing it. Talent wise it is near the top of the league so should be expected to perform that way.

[phillychuck]

We're NOT stacked in bullpen talent. I think that's a misconception b/c we overrate our own players. We have no proven closer, Nicosia has been awful for most of his career, Morgan was really bad last year, Hunter and Robertson are hurt, Seranthony was good for half a year, pretty bad late, and the rest of the guys are replacement-level pick-ups or guys coming up from AAA. Neris is 9 months away from being a batting-practice pitcher.

The Yankees are stacked in the pen. Houston and Cleveland are stacked in the pen. We are getting good performance out of a pretty average crew right now.

[Lawman]

I was just listening to Franzke's radio call from last night, as I had gone to bed after the 7th inning. He is really, really good.

[mdougherty12]

Article from the Good Phight on whether or not Seranthony Dominguez struggles when asked to pitch a second inning:

Is Seranthony Dominguez really bad in multiple innings?