GDT 5/16/18 Philadelphia Phillies (Pivetta) @ Baltimore Orioles (Cashner)

[andyb]

I think this was more about gradually restoring Neris' confidence than having anything to do with a save. If Ramos put 2 runners on I think I would have bet on Kapler bringing in Dominguez rather than Neris.

[zambonir]

For sure I think confidence was part of it too. Neris hadn't pitched in five days. It was low-leverage. Letting Ramos have the stat shouldn't factor into it either.

If Hunter had gotten more guys out it's possible Neris would have started the 9th, with Ramos ready to face the heart of the order if necessary.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Ramos pitched to all right-handers. Neris came in to pitch to Chris Davis who was the first of four left-handers in the Baltimore lineup. I think part of the reasoning for the change was that Kapler wanted to match up Neris (and his splitter) against the left-handers. If we had a left-hander in the bullpen, he might have come in to pitch to Davis rather than Neris.

[donaldorc]

Ends okay but had me worried. Hunter giving up a single and a double in three hitters faced is not a good day for him. Not getting a DP on the grounder hurt. Garcia did well entering with two RISP but held them scoreless.

I haven't been all that impressed with Hunter, but Garcia is really getting it done!

[andyb]

I think part of the reasoning for the change was that Kapler wanted to match up Neris (and his splitter) against the left-handers. If we had a left-hander in the bullpen, he might have come in to pitch to Davis rather than Neris.

Probably true, though since we are talking all RHP I am not sure those situational substitutions mattered all that much. When you have a 3-run lead Davis can't hit a 3-run HR with nobody on base. And to me there is value in not having your relievers pitch 90 times. So if you wanted to get Neris work there is no reason you don't start him to begin the inning. Unless of course you are not sure about him getting 3 outs.

[el-pietro]

8 games over 500 or at exactly .600

If they keep up this rate for the season (they won't) thats 97 wins.
If they go .500 for the rest of the season, they would finish at 85 wins.
I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle.
For the record the Mets and Giants finished with 87 wins each to get into the WC game last year.
Baltimore and Toronto finished with 89 in the AL

In 2016 the Pirates and Cubs finished with 98 and 97 wins though so you never know.
I suspect 87 wins will not be enough in this division as Miami will give up wins to each of the other four teams.

[el-pietro]

I know its still early but only Atlanta have a better record than the Phils in the NL and only Atlanta plus Boston and the Yankees have a better record in all of Major League Baseball. 1/3rd of the way through the season this team has been the fourth best in all of Baseball. WHAT IS HAPPENING?

[zambonir]

If they go .500 for the rest of the season, they would finish at 85 wins.

That is a pretty promising stat, as this team should get better not worse, at least offensively.

[Lawman]

Starters have been very good to good, hitting has been decent, bullpen has been decent. Playing well all around.

Whether they can keep this up.....who knows? But this is a great year/period in Philly sports. All four teams are good, young, and hopefully will get better. 3/4 made the playoffs in their respective sports. 2018, to date, has not been a bad sports year for fans of Philadelphia area teams.

[bkeich]

I know RBIs are team based, but Franco really does seem to be racking them up at a pace that is more than just good luck.

[Austinfan]

For once we agree, Klentak wants to salvage Neris, even if only to build up his trade value with Ramos, Seranthony as viable replacements (and more on the way in the minors).

I think Garcia has to learn to relax, overthrowing his 2 seamer, they may call it a 4 seamer on Fansgraph, but when a FB cuts down and in that's a 2-seamer. Which if he's developing one to go with his 97 MPH 4 seamer, slider and split finger, will just make him better.

Ramos has really good breaking stuff, both a slider with good horizontal movement and a hard curve. If he can improve his FB (add a little more movement, 94-95 needs some deception) he could be a closer with that breaking stuff. Ramos also seems to have good command of his stuff.

Pivetta is starting to look like he's for real, the slider and curve were impressive, the FB explodes, and he's working on his changeup and 2 seamer. The 2 seamer will make his high 4 seamer more effective, and the changeup will give him something to keep LH hitters honest. If he can put the whole arsenal together, he can join Nola and Arrieta in quite a trio. Though he was a bit lucky today, all the hard hit balls seemed to be right at someone (except the HR, of course). But he's attacking hitters and keeping his cool.

[California_Dreamin]

el-pietro...they are not doing this with smoke and mirrors, this actually started in July of last year when they lost their first two games after the break [record was 29-60] and then went 37-36 for the rest of the season. I commented on it at the end of the season but man dismissed it as me grabbing an arbitrary date and going from there.

I didn't believe this was the case because you could see the team coming together after they brought up players like Hoskins and Williams, gave starting rotation slots to Pivetta, and then brought up Crawford and Alfaro late in the season. The team was actually playing solid ball through the August/Sept period and then added Santana to the mix this off season.

I still think they are a long shot to make the playoffs but if they can stay healthy [this is HUGE] I think they have a good chance to get Hamels on the cheap in July and a rotation featuring Nola, Arrieta and Nola at the top can compete with almost any team in the NL.

Its also worth noting that other than the Nats, who the Phillies play tough, there are not any powerhouse teams in the NL this year with the demise of the Dodgers and the inconsistency of the Cubs.

Stranger things have happened in baseball and this is a very good baseball team right now, with the potential to get better as the season moves forward.

[zambonir]

The Athletic had the Phillies 10th in most recent ranking, but I see the below as a reason for optimism.

TA30: The Yankees are tied in the standings, but No. 1 in...

the Phils offense is scoring the tenth-most runs (180) while boasting only the 19th-best batting average (.241) and the 21st-most home runs (41), the 22nd-most extra-base hits (109) and the fifth-most strikeouts (371). How?

And sure, RBIs are team based, but this team gets on base, and Franco is slugging .500. He keeps that up and he's a pretty good player. Even if he drifts back down to .750 OPS he's probably still not a negative player like last year.

[andyb]

And sure, RBIs are team based, but this team gets on base, and Franco is slugging .500. He keeps that up and he's a pretty good player. Even if he drifts back down to .750 OPS he's probably still not a negative player like last year.

I think we probably have more people under-performing offensively than over-performing too. Herrera and Franco may have some regression. Hoskins should really be about where he is (more HRs, fewer walks). We should really get more out of Williams and Altherr than we have. Santana also. We'll definitely get more out of SS (whether Crawford or Kingery) and that bonus should be more than any regression from Hernandez. We have also gotten about what we expected out of catcher.

If Santana, Altherr, and Williams give us 800 OPS production the rest of the way this is just going to be a better team even if we lose a bit from the starting pitching which has been better than anticipated.

[tom81]

I agree with John L

John L.
May 14, 7:23pm
"Phil's offense is 3rd in MLB in Walks (167), 6th in OBP (.331), and 13th in OPS (.732). Sprinkle in some timely hitting with RISP and 10th in runs does not seem that out of the question."

[bkeich]

Herrera ... may have some regression.

Ahh, yea. He is leading the NL in hitting by more than 20 points and he is actually walking a fair amount also. He isnt just getting on base every game, he is doing it 2-3 times in many games, consistently. I think it is fair to say that there really is only one direction for him to go at this point, but it is fun to watch.

There is something special about this guy, yes, he is clearly a little "off" by every account, but he isnt a bad guy or a guy you cant root for. He is just different, but I havent heard a single player say anything negative about him despite his "oddity".

The best line was last year when Pete M. announced that the team did not have to wear ties on the road as long as the players wore things that were "professional" and reasonable. Andres Blanco immediately told Herrera "take a picture of what you are wearing and send it to me every day before you leave and we will discuss it, BEFORE you leave".

[andyb]

OBP is more important than SLG as a component of OPS. So we are probably about 10th in generic offensive value if we are 3rd in OBP and 13th in OPS.

[zambonir]

I think there was a bit of tongue in check from the writer, who definitely understands the value of OBP. But also Franco and Santana and Altherr have made this a different offense in May than it was in April.

[zambonir]

Old school minds question Gabe Kapler’s 9th inning reliever switch

The thing is, that approach may not be fun to watch and it's not always going to be right either, but there is no reason why the "default" position - leaving a guy in to get three outs, letting someone get a save, not changing pitchers too often - is actually the correct position. It's just the way it's always been done.

[LoneStarPhan]

As I believe I have made clear, I thought the bringing in Neris was not the right move for a couple reasons. First and foremost, Ramos was doing great and I think he deserved at least the chance to pitch to the third batter and try to earn a save. As much as I think the save is a vastly overblown stat, it is important to relievers and I suspect Ramos would have gotten a big boost out of getting his second save this week. Second, are we heading for having a number of relievers who pitch in a larger number of games than they are accustom to pitching in? Using 4 to 8 relievers per game is going to run up some pretty large numbers of games for the members of the bullpen. Yes, I know if they have already warmed up, pitching a short stint isn't that gin a deal, but it's a long season and who knows who may tire out? Even with the starter going seven innings, we are often seeing 4 relievers being used to finish the game.

But I see that the moves today worked. The moves over the past nine games have resulted in seven wins. That is a level of performance that cannot be discounted. Only using Neris in a traditional closer role in two games led to the two loses. I am anxious to see how they fair in the remaining 14 games this month. The four game series in St. Louis will be a good test. The Cardinals at their home have always been a difficult series for the Phillies. I hope to take 3 but a 2-2 split in St. Louis would not disappoint me.