GDT 4/6/25 Los Angeles Dodgers (Glasnow) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Sánchez, C)

[phillychuck]

It really seems like we could have been swept in that series, but we won 2 games taking advantage of Dodger mistakes. Good result. What is ailing Romano?

[bkeich]

I think it might be time for a day off for Kepler. He started hot but has been cold lately. We have 4 starting OF, maybe time to give Marsh a start in LF?

[Austinfan]

This was an April game. Bad mound, then I think Sanchez stiffened up after that long inning.
Romano really is looking bad, but Ross is looking good.
Wonder if Walker can adjust to a bullpen role? Or get flipped for a RP?

[zambonir]

Ruiz will pass Romano if it keeps going this way, but today Romano had already been pushed down the 6th inning and behind Kerkering. They will need to get him right though. Estevez (who at the moment seems like would have been a much better choice) was horrible last April for the Angels too. And remember Kimbrel's start? (Unfortunately his finish wasn't great either, but he was still good). But Romano could also be like Knebel (more parallels there).

I like having Ross just as he is, much like Hoffman and Strahm used to be more middle/multi-inning guys before they both rose to quasi-closers.

On the bright side Phillies really knocked around Glasnow - I though the first delay meant he was going to turn out to be injured/pulled - and our hitters were still better than their bullpen in the end.

At some point Clemens is going to have to get a day in LF and we know Sosa can too. In the meantime Rojas will start Tuesday against Sale, Sosa at SS too I imagine. But that means either Marsh or Kepler still plays (unless you don't sit Stott and are willing to put Sosa in OF).

[Philsmania]

Ruiz will pass Romano if it keeps going this way, but today Romano had already been pushed down the 6th inning and behind Kerkering. They will need to get him right though. Estevez (who at the moment seems like would have been a much better choice) was horrible last April for the Angels too. And remember Kimbrel's start? (Unfortunately his finish wasn't great either, but he was still good). But Romano could also be like Knebel (more parallels there).

Romano's WHIP--the most important statistic for relievers in my opinion--is now up to 2.50.

Knebbel wasn't the answer to the 2022 Phillies' bullpen but he was never nearly as bad as Romano has been. Jeurys Familia in 2022 may be a better comp. The Phillies paid him $6 million that season while they are paying Romano $8.5 million this season.

Romano 2025 so far would have fit right in with that 2020 Phillies bullpen. A strange thing is that Romano was downright awesome down in Clearwater (8.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 2 BB, 4 H, .069 WHIP, .133 BA against). Has he possibly pulled up lame again or is ST that useless a barometer? Or, does he simply pitch better in warmer weather? Per BR, March/April and May are his worst months (3.92 and 4.19 ERAs) before really putting things together in June, July and August (2.21, 2.73 and 1.49 ERA respectively) and then struggling again in September 3.99 ERA).

[flyers19rw]

So is their SP. Yesterday Snell went on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Glasnow could have some issues based on his outing on Sunday. His velocity was down as well as location. It was more than a sloppy field creating that.

[zambonir]

Dead arm or still undiagnosed minor injury that hopefully doesn't turn into something more. The stats - or the results really - don't matter as they could be mitigated by three good outings, but the stuff he is currently showing says that's not possible.

I don't think the Phillies believed Familia was an 8th or 9th inning reliever when they signed him though. Obviously they thought he could still help. He wasn't even a bounce-back candidate, he had been, if in obvious decline, solid for the Mets the year before so getting him on a middle relief salary seemed like a good play. Whereas Kimbrel (lost his job, left off the playoff roster) and Knebel (TJ surgery) were both bounce-back candidates who would have gotten more money or years otherwise, just like Romano, and the Phillies wanted them all to close (or similar).

Hoffman and Estevez are both pitching well but that doesn't mean the same risk of either of them having a bum season isn't still there. Last year's team still played 110-win pace baseball while Seranthony, Alvarado and Soto all faltered. They are just very lucky Jose seems to be back, and Ross now has a chance to step up like Hoffman did in 2023.

[andyb]

The raw stuff with Romano is down a tick or two now compared to Clearwater. We are going to need a larger sample though to see why that is true.

I have been wondering for a while now about whether the answer to the bullpen depth problem is named Ranger Suarez. It would hurt Ranger financially to not be in the rotation, but getting 80 innings out of him in the bullpen while Painter slots into the rotation is intriguing. Of course we could also take the David Price bullpen path for Painter and let him be a 2-3 inning monster back there.

[zambonir]

They will really need a RH arm in the bullpen at the deadline though, if Romano actually flops, and/or Ross doesn't step up.

If everyone besides Romano is healthy and effective (including Walker) and Painter is definitely able join the rotation it's still probably better to trade Ranger for starting pitcher value in return than convert him, even if you're also trying to add a relief arm in July.

If Walker actually becomes tradeable, an Alvarado-type relief pitcher in return (at the time of his trade to us) is probably as possible as a prospect.

[phillychuck]

Thinking about Romano right now is sort of weird--you know he will end up with decent stats if he's not injured, so given how bad he's been statistically so far, we are in for some shut-down innings later in the year. Career wise he's always been a warm-weather pitcher, so root for a temperature change soon...

[zambonir]

And the Phillies are 5-0 in the games he's pitched in

But it's still a pretty nasty string of appearances. The overreaction is entirely because of his salary (it's modest compared to free agents but highest on the team besides Jose's extension bump), expected role and the fact that he and Ross are the de facto replacements for Estevez and Hoffman.

But what the bullpen really rests on is the return of Jose and Kerkering taking another step. They still need Romano to be the 4th piece along with Strahm. It will either work out or it won't!

Not sure about the warm-weather thing considering his home ballpark was indoors. Which is also what they were saying about Glasnow's struggles yesterday. I doubt it's a factor either way.

[Austinfan]

I think if Walker puts together 3 or 4 solid starts, he'll be very tradeable.
He was hitting 94, so the arm is fine.
He has a track record of being a 4/5, so it's more confirming he's back than if he's a flash in the pan

2yr/$36M isn't outrageous for a SP anymore. And when a few arms go lame, some rich team will be desperate.

[Philsmania]

Thinking about Romano right now is sort of weird--you know he will end up with decent stats if he's not injured, so given how bad he's been statistically so far, we are in for some shut-down innings later in the year. Career wise he's always been a warm-weather pitcher, so root for a temperature change soon...

I was thinking the same thing about Romano maybe just not being good in cooler weather but thinking about things further, I began to suspect that 3.92 career April ERA is probably skewed by his horrific so far April of 2025 and that is correct. His career April ERA prior to this season is 2.57. Oh, and he grew up in Canada so cooler weather really shouldn't faze him. That, and the total dropoff from how good he was in ST, leads me to suspect that something isn't right with him right now...injury, deadarm or something.

[andyb]

Even if Walker puts together a few more good starts he is not simply tradeable. Sure the Phillies can pick up $30 million of the contract and then probably get a top 10 prospect back for him, but are they actually willing to do that? Walker's stuff is better this year, but he was throwing 95 previously and not 93. He is still about 1 mph under what he did for the Phillies 2 years ago.

Maybe the Phillies do trade him, especially if Painter comes up and nobody else gets hurt, but they are going to be picking up lots of salary if they do so. Shutting down the worst team in the league is better than not shutting down the Rockies, but not actually evidence he could be better than the back end of many rotations yet.

[Austinfan]

Walker 4-seam:
2020: 93.2 FIP 4.56
2021: 94.5 FIP 4.57
2022: 93.7 FIP 3.65
2023: 92.9 FIP 4.53
2024: 91.5 FIP 6.94
2025: 92.8

Eovaldi (34) FIP 3.83 (3.88 in 2023) 3yr/$25M
Manaea (33) FIP 3.83 (3.90) 3yr/$25M

Scott (30) FIP 3.92 (2.92) 4yr/$18M
Severino (31) FIP 4.21 (6.94) 3yr/$22.3M
Kikuchi (33) FIP 3.46 (4.12) 3yr/$21M
Pivetta (32) FIP 4.07 (3.96) 4yr/$13.75M
Wacha (33) FIP 3.69 (3.83) 3yr/$17M
Flaherty (29) FIP 3.48 (4.36) 2yr/$17.5M
Montas (31) FIP 4.01 (3.78) 2yr/$17M

Lopez (30) FIP 2.92 (last started 4 years before) 3yr/$10M
Boyd (33) FIP 3.29 (4.34) 2yr/$14.5M
Beiber (29) FIP 3.87 (2.87) 2yr/$13M
Sandoval (28) FIP 4.18 (3.09) 2yr/$9.1M

Martinez (34) FIP 3.21 (3.94) 1yr/$21.5M
Buehler (30) FIP 5.54 (3.80) 1yr/$21M
Valdez (31) FIP 3.25 (3.18) 1yr/$18M
Cobb (37) FIP (4.01) 1yr/$15M

The guys with good FIP but lower contracts tend to be 25 start or so guys with history of arm issues.

I think if Walker proves out, he'd be attractive at $10-12M a year, with the Phillies retaining $6-8M.

[zambonir]

Walker's untradeable because if he stays in the rotation long enough to make himself tradeable the Phillies can't trade him. They will need and want him, both this year and next.

[andyb]

I am not sure why you invest much time in these long lists of players that tell us absolutely nothing. According to your own list Walker had FIPs of 4.53 and then 6.94 over the past two years. Then you list 17 pitchers of which only one (Walker Buehler) have FIPS substantially higher than Walker's good year. And Buehler had injury issues where the risk of his contract was justified.

If Walker were a free agent today he'd get a minor league deal of something like $2 million max. If he puts together 20 starts with a 4.00 ERA he'd probably still only get something in the $5-$10 million range and from the stuff I have seen it is unlikely he'll be a sub-4 ERA pitcher. And Walker's velocity IS still off from the velocity for which he signed his contract AND if you look at 2023 it was much better in the first half of the year when Walker was good and Walker's performance dropped as his velocity did.

And it would take most of the year for you to "prove" Walker was decent and he's probably not going to get that. And that goes with the long odds of him actually being decent.

Your own data just confirms that Walker is mediocre and likely has no trade value unless the Phillies pick up most of the contract. Not sure why it took listing 17 pitchers all of whom are better than Walker to say that.

[Austinfan]

Before last season, Walker had 29, 29 and 31 starts.
The guys with better FIPs who got $10-14M did not show that kind of durability. Which is why they took a discount.

If Walker sustains his velocity through a half dozen to dozen starts, a lot of teams would love to add a starting pitcher they can hope to roll out on a regular basis - b/c when a better pitcher goes down for a month or two, you may have to start someone like Phillips.

Pivetta and Montas are better starters than a healthy Walker, but not that much better and make $17M a year.
Walker at $10M will be attractive to teams if they think he's healthy and can pitch every five days.

Interesting breakdown on Walker in spring training, before he pitched 6 shutout innings.

One More Look At the New Taijuan Walker

[zambonir]

I just think if he pitches that well, the Phillies can't count on Ranger and Painter and everyone else staying perfectly healthy to the point where you just send Walker packing (and keeping him would also open up the option of Ranger or Painter to the pen, to say nothing of Walker himself in October). And if he's pitched "a half dozen to dozen starts", they already haven't been able to count on Ranger (or someone else).

Maybe you can trade him for 50 cents on the $ but you won't get anything of note in return if so. Trading him for 15 cents on the dollar gets you something at least. Either way all the more reason to keep him until the deadline, if he hits maximum value you can use him to get a reliever or a bat, or replenish prospects while making other deadline deals.

[zambonir]

Drove past on my way home from the game yesterday