GDT 4/5/18 Miami Marlins (Smith, Ca) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Pivetta)

[kikutaro]

Bour

Ball (93.5 mph four-seam fastball)
Ball (91.9 mph four-seam fastball)
Called strike (86.0 mph splitter)
Ball (85.5 mph splitter)
In play, out(s) (93.7 mph four-seam fastball)

Justin Bour pops out to second baseman Cesar Hernandez.

Null

[kikutaro]

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Miami Marlins	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	1
Philadelphia Phillies	2	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	x	5	6	1

Final

---

Miami Marlins

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brinson CF	4	0	0	0	0	4	0	.200	.243	.200	.443
Dietrich LF	4	0	1	0	0	1	0	.281	.361	.438	.799
Castro, S 2B	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.313	.405	.344	.749
Bour 1B	4	0	1	0	0	1	0	.192	.250	.231	.481
Anderson, B 3B	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	.321	.457	.500	.957
Maybin RF	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	.320	.393	.440	.833
Rojas, M SS	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	.222	.300	.296	.596
Holaday C	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.111	.200	.111	.311
Lee PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.167	.000	.167
Guerrero P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Smith, Ca P	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
García, J P	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Telis PH-C	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	.333	.250	.583

Philadelphia Phillies

Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hernández, C 2B	2	1	1	0	3	0	0	.304	.429	.478	.907
Santana 1B	4	0	0	0	1	2	0	.136	.250	.364	.614
Kingery RF	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	.222	.263	.333	.596
Hoskins LF	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	.400	.500	.700	1.200
Herrera CF	3	1	2	1	1	0	0	.250	.333	.313	.646
Franco 3B	4	1	3	4	0	0	1	.267	.353	.600	.953
Alfaro C	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	.111	.333	.111	.444
Pivetta P	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Morgan P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Altherr PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.056	.227	.056	.283
García, L P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Neris P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Crawford SS	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.053	.100	.053	.153

Miami Marlins

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Smith, Ca (L, 0-1)	3.0	2	3	3	6	4	0	77-40	4.32
García, J	4.0	4	2	2	2	2	1	73-46	1.80
Guerrero	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	0	27-18	8.31

Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-K	ERA
Pivetta (W, 1-0)	5.2	4	0	0	0	9	0	97-66	2.79
Morgan (H, 3)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	10-8	5.40
García, L	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10-7	2.25
Neris	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15-9	10.13

[donaldorc]

Nice home opening day win for the Phillies today. Plate discipline seems to be the MO with this team. They had 9 walks, and for a change some “clutch” hitting by Franco. Is there reason to hope?

[bkeich]

Have to love start of the year stats, Franco now at 0.953 OPS. Went from horrible start to great start in 1 game

[zambonir]

Yup, Salisbury just wrote a story saying he should play instead of Crawford (with Kingery at SS) next game. Which he probably should but it's hardly a big deal right now. Heck, at some point I'm sure Florimon will get a game, there have just been too many off days.

I also don't think it was spin when Klentak pointed out that the way Kapler managed in the first series was specifically due to the schedule and the size of the bullpen. As of Sunday, it won't be nine anymore. I'm just glad to see another starter pitch well enough to make it a non-issue, let's see about VV.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Didn't Kapler say the first 15 games or so were scripted as to who was going to start, etc....now I realize things may have changed due to pitching schedules of both teams etc.

[tom81]

He did say that. I would hope he may alter that based upon circumstances. If I was the manager I would certainly play Franco the next game, as a reward for his production, if he had been scheduled to sit.

[Patchmk88]

Man it's nice to see Franco have a good game. I believe I cursed him when I named my new dog after him right before he started his 2nd season. It has been all down hill since then.

[zambonir]

The story I read last night said they were scripting about a week in advance but might extend that to 10 days as things settle in. But, much like a football team you surely have to adjust on the fly, especially with rainouts and rotation changes.

It's unfortunate Williams is squawking, that suggests the communication still isn't good. I think he was mostly being sarcastic about the computers, but they've also made such a show of how important it was going to be for Fuld and the other guy to be a bridge between the front office and the field. There has to be buy-in.

But Williams really lost his job when they signed Santana. We and he were told he'd still have no problem getting ABs when that happened but adding Kingery to the mix upsets that a little.

[bkeich]

Any approach that goes away from traditional stats and into sabermetrics or other newer statistics is probably going to hurt Nick Williams. He does what he can to avoid walks, he doesnt have particularly good power for an OF and he his base stealing is pretty awful (about 1:1 SB:CS in the minors). He isnt the kind of guy Kapler is looking for, but he will get his chances because eventually one of the 5 players starting in front of him will get hurt. That will open up starting time for him (and Kingery, who is really waiting for ANYONE to get hurt other than a catcher or pitcher to take over a position for a period, a true super-sub).

Williams has to hit .300 to be a good player really since his ISO is only going to be about .150 or so and he only walks 5% of the time. .300/.350/.450 will get him on the field, much less than that and he is getting close to replacement level as I don't think he grades out as a good OF. Last years .811 OPS (he had a .190 ISO, which is a little high for him) managed a mighty 0.1 WAR in 343 at bats. Nick Williams Major League Stats

He would be better served keeping his mouth shut at this point until he actually proves a little more in the majors.

[andyb]

Any approach that goes away from traditional stats and into sabermetrics or other newer statistics is probably going to hurt Nick Williams. He does what he can to avoid walks, he doesnt have particularly good power for an OF and he his base stealing is pretty awful (about 1:1 SB:CS in the minors)

Other than the base-stealing, is Kingery's offense at this point any better? Williams probably has more power. Kingery has not drawn walks initially at each level. Williams could have a bit of a reaction to the new "golden child". It is not like Kingery was ever rated more highly in top 100s than Williams was. And Williams had a .185 ISO last year so .150 going forward with the magic baseballs in use is probably very doable.

I am not saying Williams deserves lots of playing time. It is just unclear that Kingery deserves it at the moment in the outfield as well. I'd also put a grain of salt in Williams' WAR until we see more data. The combo of 1.6 oWAR and -1.4 dWAR might be colored by SSS defensive stats. Williams is not that bad out there especially when he is in a corner.

[flyers19rw]

Williams has to hit .300 to be a good player

Well, along with last years .811 OPS (he had a .190 ISO, which is a little high for him) managed a mighty 0.1 WAR in 343 at bats, he did hit .288 with 12 dingers in his time last season. I'd rather have a guy that can hit and then learn to become more selective at the plate and take walks than one that doesn't have any pop in his bat. Maybe Altherr will edge out Williams as the third OF in the mix but perhaps not.

[bkeich]

I'd rather have a guy that can hit and then learn to become more selective at the plate and take walks than one that doesn't have any pop in his bat. Maybe Altherr will edge out Williams as the third OF in the mix but perhaps not.

Williams has had almost 2500 minor league at bats, I don't know that I have much confidence he is going to become more selective. In general walk rates go down as you move up levels, not sure I am seeing much in him that implies he is even working on trying to improve in that area.

Williams is not a terrible player, I am not saying or implying that, but there is a reason why they were willing to bench him in favor of a converted 1B. To me he is much closer to a 4th OF than a core player you want in the lineup every day. Agreed he is still young and you never know what will happen.

[bkeich]

Other than the base-stealing, is Kingery's offense at this point any better? Williams probably has more power. Kingery has not drawn walks initially at each level. Williams could have a bit of a reaction to the new "golden child". It is not like Kingery was ever rated more highly in top 100s than Williams was. And Williams had a .185 ISO last year so .150 going forward with the magic baseballs in use is probably very doable.

I am not saying Williams deserves lots of playing time. It is just unclear that Kingery deserves it at the moment in the outfield as well. I'd also put a grain of salt in Williams' WAR until we see more data. The combo of 1.6 oWAR and -1.4 dWAR might be colored by SSS defensive stats. Williams is not that bad out there especially when he is in a corner.

Kingery is to me a completely different discussion. He is a 2B I think, they are just trying to find ABs for him to be able to give him some MLB time since really having him beat up AAA pitching is kinda useless at this point. I dont think his future is as a super sub, I think he is our 2B because I thoroughly believe that Hernandez will be moved. (although honestly he is one of our best players and has been for awhile).

Is Kingery better than Williams? Yes, I think he is, but their is an argument to made as their stats are pretty close to each other. The fact that Kingery can and should play 2B makes him more valuable than a corner OF.

[andyb]

Is Kingery better than Williams? Yes, I think he is, but their is an argument to made as their stats are pretty close to each other. The fact that Kingery can and should play 2B makes him more valuable than a corner OF.

My question was more whether Kingery as an OF is better than Williams as an OF. Williams hit 27 HRs last year. He always had a decent power tool so this is a pretty normal progression for his power. Kingery has less raw power and who knows if last year is real or he is more of a 15 HR guy.

It is just far from clear that Kingery is better and deserves OF starts. Kingery can be a better player than Williams (mainly because he is a 2B) and still be worse as a corner OF.

[zambonir]

Williams' power is certainly the reason you stick with him. Plus he's just the second lefty bat in an OF group of 5 (if you include Kingery but not Florimon).

But I would not be surprised if Cesar Hernandez is on the Phillies for longer than one of Williams, Altherr or even Herrera (depending, also, on what trade or free agent move they make). I think Kingery made the team and got his contract this year specifically because Kapler and Klentak decided they had another Ben Zobrist on their hands and could help the team now, in that role, not as a 2B (a position he still hasn't played this season). That doesn't mean he won't ultimately settle in at one position or the other, but if their definitive intent was to make him the next 2B I think he'd still be in Allentown right now.

[Austinfan]

Klentak didn't choose Williams. And I don't think if the current group was doing that trade that they would have accepted Williams and Alfaro, two prospects with poor plate discipline. Plus Williams didn't come with a great work ethic. So I don't think they have any real attachment to him, but they might want to wait a year before moving him (Haseley and Moniak are both LH OFs, as are Pullin and Cozens).

Williams has to learn to think, he's behind Hoskins, Herrera and Altherr, Kingery is probably more talented (and with a little experience, will probably be a better fielding OF, he was an OF in college), and Santana isn't going anywhere. And two LH high 1st rd picks are only a couple years away. So it would behoove him to work hard, impress people with his attitude, and take advantage of his opportunities - because he's basically showcasing himself for a trade.

[tom81]

I think the Phillies really like Hernandez’s package, good oba, good speed even if he is not an aggressive base stealer, good defense, young enough with several controllable years at a decent price. I think they keep him as I think we value him higher than the other teams. I think the real question is does Kingery have the arm for the other side of the infield? If they judge he does he might be our SS or 3B long term. I would love to see that Franco has really turned the corner, that power would be a real plus to the team but that has to be proven. I’m not really sold on Crawford being the answer at SS. He will probably be a better fielding SS than Kingery but in this age of three true outcomes that isn’t as important as it used to be for a SS. I don’t see Crawford ever having the power or base running skills as Kingery. I think Kingery will be the better player and I think the team might be better with a Kingery Hernandez tandem than a Kingery Crawford tandem.

[julio]

Plus Williams didn't come with a great work ethic.

You don't know this. Do we have to spread gossip like this?

[zambonir]

I think AF is guilty of being imprecise and hyperbolic - we do not know he has a poor work ethic, we do know he had a few minor, and now-forgotten incidents, in which his effort at that particular moment was questioned by some.

But it's still fair to bring it up. Williams made it through all of last season without any issues and it seemed as though the drama, which had been made too much of anyway, was over. Brundage was gone and Williams made the most of his opportunities, all the way to the bigs. But it's a bad look for any young player to publicly complain about his ABs a mere one week into the season. That history makes it a slightly worse look.