Franco Optioned to AAA

julio 2019-08-04 22:34:37 UTC #41

No. YOU expected this; don't assume the rest of us ever did. There was lots of concern about Cozens' ability to sustain his Reading numbers.

I would submit that Walding was a reasonable fifth-round pick. It's just that most fifth-round picks don't have much major-league success. Yeah, you can name some; Mike Piazza was a 62nd round pick. But cherry-picking an outlier isn't credible.

California_Dreamin 2019-08-04 22:35:54 UTC #42

And if all these guys you mentions [Cozens, Alfaro, Williams, Franco] were not really that good, then the Phillies brass sure did a good job of fooling us.

Perhaps that is the case. But if it is, and the braintrust in their hearts KNEW that these guys were not that good, then shame on them, thats even more damming. Because they certainly sold a terrible bag of goods to a phanbase that has been way too loyal and patient.

Austinfan 2019-08-04 22:36:56 UTC #43

The 2016 Reading team:

Pullin, .952 OPS but only 48 games (.382 BABIP), repeated first half of the next season
Quinn .287 BA but 68K in 286 AB, we know injuries, not coaching, has been his issue
Alfaro .783 OPA, 22 BB/105 K - nothing has changed
Hoskins .943 OPS - 1.032 /.853 splits
Cozens .941 OPS, but 186 K
Valentin .745 OPS
Walding .709 OPS

Pullin was probably the biggest disappointment, looked like he had turned the corner.

California_Dreamin 2019-08-04 22:38:30 UTC #44

julio, no, no no on the Cozens expectations. This site had reservations about his ability to hit for average, I remember that, but not for power. And if 3 True Outcomes is suddenly the end all, be all for the Phillies, then Cozens sure seems like the Burt Reynolds Case for Most Likely to Succeed.

Except he hasn't.

julio 2019-08-04 22:41:11 UTC #45

Umm... Perhaps this assumption is also flawed?

California_Dreamin 2019-08-04 22:42:51 UTC #46

Look, fellow Phillie friends, I know there are differing views and probably none of us is completely correct. I get it. But I know what Moniak was supposed to become and we all KNOW what Bohm and Stott are supposed to become. Yet, both are struggling now.

Let's see where they end up, most think Bohm should be in Philly by 2020 and Stott maybe 2021. Moniak should also get to the majors sometime in that time frame.

If they flame out, I really doubt it will be because they were overrated.

baseballoldie 2019-08-04 22:50:15 UTC #47

If you ever watch Moniak hit, you can tell he has an elite swing when he stays in it. Moniak’s issue is chasing bad pitches out of the zone. Professional pitching obviously has more movement than HS pitching so I can understand why scouts are challenged in evaluating HS hitters. IMO good HS hitters tend to believe they can hit anything and it takes time to change that mentality. Even though Moniak has struggled at times, I believe he will be a very successful hitter when he gets to the big leagues as he will continue to become more selective on his swings. When he swings at pitches in the zone, he makes good contact.

julio 2019-08-04 23:09:54 UTC #48

The second paragraph here makes some sense - let's wait and see what happens....although the "most think" assertion is kind of like "I think, so most others do, too." But it's not clear to me how it follows from the wailing and knashing of teeth that preceded it in this thread.

Yeah, there have been been periods of struggle. That's not uncommon - all hitters go through that. But looking at the progression of most of our recent top draftees (everybody but Randolph) -- what is the basis for all the melodrama and moaning?

Taudawg 2019-08-05 00:11:13 UTC #49

It is very easy to pick and chose individual players or prospects to make a case supporting opinion. The challenge is presenting enough data to prove something as fact. For example, I could suggest the Phillies organization must have found a magic hitting pill because 30 year old Ali Castillo is hitting .332 for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs over 395 plate appearances (not a small sample). A quick stats check shows me he has never hit close to this level in professional baseball in the U.S..

The reality is most prospects, including the vast majority of those currently ranked as top 100, will fail to make an impact in the majors. MOST of the top 100 names change from one year to the next. The reason is they fail to produce at the next level up. It's not just the Phillies. At the same time, many players never ranked as a top prospect, will go on to have very impactful MLB careers - Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez, Patrick Corbin, etc.

baseballoldie 2019-08-05 00:46:03 UTC #50

The apparent issue is that anything less than an impactful player like a Acuna or Guerrero is a failure for Philly phans. Forget that most of the minor league teams have the youngest or close to youngest teams in their league and Reading has the best overall record in their league while being the youngest team - unfortunately not good enough for many Phans because there aren't many top 100 players in the system.

Austinfan 2019-08-05 01:02:05 UTC #51

That is one reason I'm taking a "wait and see" attitude for a couple more years, Klentak and company have been more aggressive promoting young prospects, the result is more young player struggling, but we'll see if this helps or hurts their development only in a couple years - Luis Garcia is a good example, he could be ripping it up in Williamsport, instead he's struggling at Lakewood. Is that good or bad?

phillychuck 2019-08-05 02:59:49 UTC #52

I'm late to the party but IIRC the biggest fear we had about Cozens was that he would not learn to hit lefties well at all--his minor league splits were always pretty drastic. But, for a lefty, that can be a good thing since 70% of pitchers are righties--you can make a pretty good living as a lefty platoon bat in the big leagues. In a way I agree with CD--Cozens is an organizational failure to some extent--they should of AT LEAST gotten a platoon OF out of him.

andyb 2019-08-05 04:08:33 UTC #53

I think there is a strong chance Cozens has a decent major league career as a platoon hitter. It is not like we learned that much this year as he got hurt for most of it. And a 20% walk rate is nothing to look down upon. It is very possible he is that low average hitter that walks enough so his power plays and he is built for today's game.

He was a draft pick that many were skeptical of because he was completely off the board. He ended up having the tools to justify that. He had an 873 OPS last year in AAA without the new magic baseballs. That is a solid year comparable to what other major leaguers have put up in their age 24 season. He just never got much of a chance this year (most of his limited time was when the weather was cold also).

julio 2019-08-05 04:21:27 UTC #54

And the Phils didn't just cut him loose, either. You have to understand that releasing him now was nothing more than a recognition that he would be a free agent in October anyway, unless added back to the 40-man roster (which they obviously did not intend to do, given other players they need to protect). They've given up exactly none of his playing time - not this season, not in future seasons - because they didn't have reserve control over any of it. They may (or may not) attempt to re-sign Cozens this winter - but regardless, they're in exactly the same position they would have been had they outrighted him.

Further, it's not clear to me that the Phils could have outrighted Cozens, rather than releasing him. Article XIX (C) of the CBA prohibits assigning players on the major league IL to the minors, and goes on to say "Players who are injured and not able to play may not be assigned to a Minor League club." The section does not directly address players who are on optional assignment, injured, and on the minor league IL. Can be read either way, IMHO.

zambonir 2019-08-05 05:25:03 UTC #55

Time will tell. Every AAAA player was once somebody's favorite prospect. Cozens has a lot more going for him than Ruf or Joseph (athletically and by being lefthanded) but he was behind both Harper and Williams, and now Bruce too. He didn't have much trade value the past two years (and Walding already went unclaimed off the 40 once before). And more teams are like the Phillies in valuing defensively versatile bench guys (and having a short bench) than not.

Interesting though, that it is almost to the point where Klentak will have rid the franchise of every player he ever inherited besides Hoskins. Three more just in the past few days. If Herrera is gone Kingery might be it (maybe with one more year of Cesar) in the field.

Regardless, I'm not sure why one would automatically tend towards the narrative that these were all good players who developed badly, especially when no one seemed to think the Phillies were good at drafting - and they squandered many picks - post-Arbuckle. If the Phillies were really that bad at development but not drafting more teams would pick up their trash and get something out of them. Which of course happens, but not unusually so.

I think the hyper-focus on any particular failure is probably a by-product of all that squandering, and lack of depth. When you have fewer bodies and fewer first-round picks and already whiffed on most of them from 2004 to 2013 any failure of any kind is going to feel even worse. Dom Brown hurt a lot because he was all we had, and the same was true of Asche/Franco until Hoskins came up (there was Freddy, but nobody ever got too excited about him). And Dom did get a bit of a raw deal, but in the end I think talent overcomes development mistakes, whether with the first team or another one.

andyb 2019-08-05 10:36:18 UTC #56

I don't have any problem with what the Phillies did here. They needed the roster spot and Cozens would have been a free agent. We have run out of 40-man choices. He probably would not have survived on the roster all winter even if they had managed to get him on the 60-day DL.

There is a non-zero chance he is comfortable with the Phillies and decides to re-sign with them, probably assuming they clear away some of the roster competition like Williams and Dickerson, though if one is looking solely at his prospects for playing time he should probably sign with an AL team that has the DH to give him more chances to play. If he is healthy he might also want to go to one of the winter leagues to prove himself.

jimbomill 2019-08-05 12:31:06 UTC #57

I lean towards the "true talent transcends" side of things. I blame the scouts for thinking he's worth 1:1. If he were really good, he'd find a way. As much as I want to blame the organization, the thing I find them guilty of is not drafting the best player available.

Lawman 2019-08-05 12:39:23 UTC #58

I'm really not sure whether this is an indictment of the coaching or, IMHO more likely, an indictment of the scouting department. Franco, Asche, Williams, Knapp....either the team's instructions couldn't didn't allow them to get the most out of their talent, or they weren't that talented - compared to their MLB peers of course - to begin with.

If it's a lack of ceiling on the part of the players, that's one thing - but then it's our expectations as fans that need to be tempered. If, however, they all have/had higher ceilings and the Phils organizational coaching and philosophy is so bad that it didn't allow the players to reach their ceiling - well that would be very concerning indeed.

Austinfan 2019-08-05 13:05:03 UTC #59

Bohm in his second season of pro ball is in AA, not surprising he's struggling with a mere .821 OPS (though .608 on the road, but SSS applies)
Stott is in his "college season," I never take that first year seriously.
Moniak is in AA at 21, after a slow start he's having the kind of year you'd expect from a top ten pick.

There are players above expectations:
Stephen is in AA at 21 and holding his own.
Grullon is having a solid season in AAA ball

If there's one disturbing trend, it's the prevalence of really high K rates throughout the farm system, but this may simply be the lag time between changing hitter mechanics and a new swing becoming natural. If this trend persists next year, then I'll start to worry.

julio 2019-08-05 13:31:24 UTC #60

Franco has been discussed at length above. But for the record, he was signed in 2010. Montgomery/Amaro/Manuel/Noworyta/Wolever.

Cody Asche was a fourth-round draft pick - the scouting consensus was that he was not going to be a good major-leaguer. A lot of Phillies fans convinced themselves otherwise ("He's outperformed!"). The scouts were correct. Asche's career has been more-or-less as projected by the professionals.

Nick Williams was a second round pick (of the Rangers, not the Phillies). He was available in trade because his offensive game had holes - lack of plate discipline. The Phillies didn't make that disappear. Williams was acquired in July 2015 - by Gillick/Amaro. (MacPhail had been hired as a special assistant one month prior. Klentak was in California.)

Andrew Knapp was a second-round pick of the Phillies, in 2013. At the time, Johnny Almaraz was an employee of the Atlanta Braves. Fans here saw this as a "safe" pick, but nobody got excited about it.

So, where do the fan expectations, which wind up unmet, come from? We build our hopes around these guys...why?

You can blame the Phils' marketing department, for promoting iffy prospects as saviors. You can blame the Philly media for rhapsodizing about "up and coming" minor leaguers. At the end of the day, though, I have to wonder if a lot of it isn't on the fans - for seeing and believing what they want to see, rather than what's really there, for gullibly accepting what PR types and press hacks tell them.

The Phillies' PR types are going to promote whatever players they have to promote, regardless of whether they're really any good. Rico Brogna? Jeff Stone? Glenn-bo? But that's their job. Seeing through advertising hype (in our caveat emptor society) is the responsibility of the consumer - advertisers of all products spin and deceive - it's what they're trained to do, it's what gets them rewarded. If you believe it - whether that's "Maikel Franco will save the Phillies" or "the Ginsu is a great knife," or "the Popeil Pocket Fisherman is all a fisherman needs" - well, that's on you.