Eagles 2021-2022 Season

[LegoDoom]

Crazy, they get Nakobe Dean in the third round, a guy that I was somewhat hoping they would take in the first round.

This is one of the biggest value picks in years

I really like the pick and while being undersized is a valid concern, this kind of slide almost always is revealed later to be an injury or personal red flag.

It's different than the QBs dropping. There is actually an advantage for teams to pass on QBs and waiting for a better chance at a top QB in future years. Not saying the Eagles should have been looking for a QB at this point, but you're reaching the point where teams are going to have good value even if they are a project/backup.

[LegoDoom]

And... there it is.

https://twitter.com/PFF_AustinGayle/status/1520215513665843200

[zambonir]

Seems to me the Eagles are very much not drafting for this season, and that's fine. Dean's obviously a risk/reward play based on that info, Brown is locked up for years to come, Jurgens will replace Kelce, and the QB they play with in 2023 may or may not be Hurts, but this season is about figuring it out.

[LegoDoom]

Dickerson was a risk/reward player and he fell ~15 spots at most. There is a huge difference in risk/reward and a player dropping 2 rounds. Sounds like Dean has multiple issues and might require extended time because he refused surgery.

I'm a big Dean fan, but this isn't the home run that it seems like.

And while I am a fan of drafting for the future, they just traded a 1st for AJ Brown. And I don't believe he's locked up because his guaranteed money is a little over half of the contract value. He's young, but you could be wasting some good years by doing that. You are also wasting cheap years from Hurts.

The Eagles are also in a good position with future draft picks. I'm not sure this is the best time to be tossing away a few years from 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round players. If Hurts is not the QB in 2023, then you are wasting a minimum of 2 years by pushing back the entire team (and one of those players they gave up a 1st for and a minimum of $57M)

[allentown]

they just traded a 1st for AJ Brown. And I don't believe he's locked up because his guaranteed money is a little over half of the contract value

Can you, or somebody else, please explain this to me. I am not that familiar with the rules of NFL contracts, but had thought (simply assumed) that a 4 year extension meant the Eagles had full control of Brown for those 4 additional contract years, regardless of what fraction of contract was guaranteed money -- that the lack of a full guarantee was a team-friendly arrangement which allowed the Eagles to cut him at some future time, without having to pay him the full $100 mill. That seems an unlikely event, unless he is unable to play.

[Purduke]

You are correct in your understanding, although I might dicker that the partial guarantee structure is a team friendly device. But regarding Brown, the Eagles have contractual control of Brown through 2026

[allentown]

Thanks.

[zambonir]

Yes, he is locked up if the Eagles want him to be locked up. With the usual caveats as the years go by (they might want to renegotiate, he might want out).

The Eagles wanted to have it both ways. There is no question they were interested in trading for a QB this year but the best ones were not available to them. They also surely would have drafted one (even trading up) if there was actually anyone who was a clear upgrade. Arguably it is already obvious Hurts will never be an elite QB, but that doesn't mean they can't win with him. If he's not the guy than yes they will have wasted two years that might have been better spent aggressively rebuilding but they are not going to be in a Flyers-like hole either. They'll be competitive this year and can win in 2023 whether it is with Hurts, a rookie or a new vet.

[LegoDoom]

I don't think the full contract details have been released and I don't want to speculate, but it's not always team-friendly. If Brown wants a new contract after 2-3 years (which wouldn't surprise me as he'd only be 27 and might want a bigger payday), then it saves the Eagles some money if they want to cut/trade him, but you lose the player (which would be more player-friendly, in my opinion).

Look at some of Kelce's contracts. It's literally money the player will never see and he will get restructured, traded, or cut before extra guaranteed money kicks in.

I understand that might not sound logical, but if Kelce didn't want to restructure he would have been cut. If Brown has a similar structure, then he won't complete his current contract. Which means that the Eagles would have given up a 1st round pick and a lot of cap money for 2-3 years of AJ Brown.

So yes, the Eagles technically have full control, but that by no means he will be an Eagle for a long time.

[LegoDoom]

If he's not the guy than yes they will have wasted two years that might have been better spent aggressively rebuilding but they are not going to be in a Flyers-like hole either. They'll be competitive this year and can win in 2023 whether it is with Hurts, a rookie or a new vet.

I disagree a bit. If Hurts isn't the guy, and I agree that they can win even if he's not elite, then not only are you wasting a year or two, but you also aren't a bad enough team to naturally draft a top-5 QB. So then you're looking at giving up multiple 1sts to trade up in the draft or in FA. The team did pick up a future 1st, so that does make it a little easier.

And at this point I'm not sure if we can tell if it's Hurts or the coaching. In my opinion, if you aren't sure that you have a franchise QB, then you don't have a franchise QB and will you have a lot of difficulties going deep into the playoffs.

I know I've said this before, but I'm not sure Hurts can't be elite. He was elite in HS, he transferred after a future #5 overall pick (despite his hip injury) replaced him at the #1 program at Alabama, and then he went on to be the runner-up for the Heisman only because the winner had the best college season ever.

If the Eagles think Hurts is the problem and are wrong, then it will be a much bigger rebuilding problem.

EDIT: I would describe that situation more similar to the pre-Hinkie Sixers situation than the Flyers. Picking in the mid-teens does nothing for you if you don't have a QB.

[bkox]

The Eagles traded 154 for 188 and 198.

— Dave Zangaro ( @DZangaroNBCS ) April 30, 2022

[allentown]

I count that as dumb. Move from the possible arena to the dross zone.

[LegoDoom]

that the lack of a full guarantee was a team-friendly arrangement which allowed the Eagles to cut him at some future time, without having to pay him the full $100 mill. That seems an unlikely event, unless he is unable to play.

To expand on this a little more, it's not a balanced contract (unless you are the Browns and I assume their cap specialist was sick when they gave a balanced, fully guaranteed contract to Deshaun Watson). It's cap balancing. Kelce has a 5/$45M contract that is actually a 1/$14M because he will never earn a $30M roster bonus in 2024.

[bkox]

The Eagles traded 188 and 237 for 181.

— Dave Zangaro ( @DZangaroNBCS ) April 30, 2022

[allentown]

The Eagles traded 188 and 237 for 181.— Dave Zangaro (

@DZangaroNBCS

) April

That makes the prior trade even dumber. We move down from 154 to 181 in order to move up from 237 to 191. We took LB Kyron Johnson from Kansas with pick 181, btw.

[LegoDoom]

I'm not familiar with Kyron Johnson. His size/speed likely makes him a tweener, but there is definitely potential.

[allentown]

If Hurts isn't the guy, and I agree that they can win even if he's not elite, then not only are you wasting a year or two, but you also aren't a bad enough team to naturally draft a top-5 QB.

You don't need a top-5 QB to win. We won a SB with Foles. Other teams have done it with not a lot better than Foles. In any event, even if a team is bad enough to have one of the top 3 spots in the draft, the odds of drafting a guy who becomes a top-5 QB aren't good. It's not at all unusual for even a top-5 QB to take several years to develop to that level. Both having two legit #1 receivers and a year's experience for Hurts and for Siriani calling plays for Hurts, should make Hurts a better QB in 2022 than he was last season. As long as his legs hold out, he should be good enough. That likely makes him a poor candidate for a long career with the Eagles, but likely fine for the next several seasons. Hurts provides another big advantage for at least the next 2-3 seasons: his salary is low enough, compared to most starting QBs, that we have cap room for another top player on the team. That's likely why we have Brown.

Another factor is whether you think Roseman and company can recognize a future top-5 QB in a draft class. They went all-in on Wentz and he was a bust.

[Docs]

Pretty sure they were trading down and back up to draft Matt Araiza and the Bills snagged him one pick earlier. Johnson will most likely be a special teams player.

[LegoDoom]

You don't need a top-5 QB to win. We won a SB with Foles.

Although it's possible, this is statistically unlikely. Also,the entire coaching tree from 2017 is much more elite than what we are looking at today.

Other teams have done it with not a lot better than Foles.

I had a much longer response, but then realized the list of not better than Foles in the last 20 years consists of Flacco (who was drafted higher and probably better).

You are pretty much banking on drafting Brady or Russell Wilson (and their coaching staffs).

If you don't think Roseman can recognize a top-5 QB, then there are much bigger problems.

[allentown]

If you don't think Roseman can recognize a top-5 QB, then there are much bigger problems.

It's tough to recognize a future top-5 in the draft. More GMs/coaches have failed than succeeded. With Wentz, Roseman already failed once.

Docs: that's almost certainly what happened, but got too cute and traded down too far. The intent was known to the whole NFL world, greatly reducing the chance of success.