Fun to go back and skim through this thread, action got heated on March 12, in a week, everyone accepted that it was serious, but took many places another week to two weeks to lockdown.
Some thoughts as an economist/consultant in the energy are who has done his share of cost/benefit, environmental risk teaching and reading:
1) mortality rates are now over 4% of confirmed infected, a lot of unconfirmed infected but also a sizeable number of unconfirmed deaths as well. So we know the rate is less than 4%, but unless the Santa Clara numbers are valid (and a number of reasons to question, for one thing the antibody tests haven't been validated, i.e., are they testing for COVID-19 or coronaviruses in general?). Second question is viral load and immunity, could a lot of people be exposed enough to register on an antibody test but not enough to build effective immunity?
Best bet is to assume worst case is 1% mortality and no herd immunity, so 200 million infected if we go back to "normal." In other words, a complete opening means 1-2M dead. And once the bodies pile up, the economy will crater even without government intervention.
Point is it never was a choice between keeping things open or stopping the virus, the virus calls the shots.
2) Until we have an effective vaccine (developed, tested for relative safety and efficacy, and then put into mass production and distribution, which cannot be done overnight), we're going to have to figure out how to open up, we can't survive a year long lock down economically or socially. We know what needs to be done, we just have idiots in charge.
a) social distancing when possible, masks required (and should be freely available, maybe kiosks everywhere), industries like meat packing where close spacing is inevitable need to provide masks, protective clothing, shields where feasible, constant disinfecting - throw owners/managers in jail for violating rules, no slap on the wrist OSHA fines. The Smithfield plant took no safety measures, another plant in the area did these things and so far has no known COVID-19 cases.
b) widespread testing with rapid turnarounds, on the order of say a million per day, Federal government should take the lead in development, ordering and financing production, monitoring results, and subsidizing implementation by states. The virus doesn't respect state borders, it's a federal issue. Individuals who are infected must quarantine, with civil and criminal penalties for violators (4th amendment allows "reasonable search and seizures"). Contact tracing is essential, to prevent spread.
c) concerts, sports events, even restaurant seating (you gonna eat with a mask?) can't be allowed until the first steps are universal, the health system is prepared for localized outbreaks, and effective treatments for COVID-19 have been developed and confirmed. You can live with outbreaks that can be sealed off, and a flood of patients that you can treat and reduce mortality. Temperatures may have to be measured before entrance is allowed into any arena, airport, etc., to at least catch the obvious infected individuals. Wearing masks in public gatherings may become a social norm.
We can live with a few thousand COVID-19 deaths a month until a vaccine is found, we do so with the flu - we can't live with the health system collapsing and 50-100K dead each month for the next 18 months. So we can open up IF we make the investment in testing, tracing and treatment capacity, and social mores change enough to keep R <1 when a hot spot occurs.
This is nothing I thought up, the general outline has been out there for a month, but the Great Orangutan is incapable of leadership - "the buck stops everywhere but here."
