Coronavirus (Sports-Related and General)

mdougherty12 2020-04-15 19:54:06 UTC #643

Update on coronavirus vaccine development:

bkox 2020-04-15 20:19:13 UTC #644

add the cdc director to the list

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-director-warns-coronavirus-may-recur-seasonally-183343387.html

Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warned Wednesday that a second wave of COVID-19 infections could hit the United States next winter if the coronavirus pandemic follows a seasonal pattern.

“I think we have to assume this is like other respiratory viruses, and there will be a seasonality to it,” Redfield said

Redfield said that a resurgence of the virus in the U.S. was “likely,” but not guaranteed.

“Until we see it, we don’t know for certain,” Redfield said. “But it is critical that we plan that this virus is likely to follow a seasonality pattern similar to flu, and we’re going to have another battle with it up-front and aggressively next winter.”

bkox 2020-04-15 20:43:34 UTC #645

Here is my question.. if we cant have sports are we going to be able to let schools reopen? Even the smaller schools have hundreds of kids plus teachers, admin etc and no way to keep them 6 feet apart. And cant imagine elementary school kids actually keeping masks on for 6 hours a day. Nor could they while eating meals at school.

And then these hundreds of people go home to their families.. so those hundreds are now thousands.

Are kids gonna have to miss in person classes for the entire 2020-2021 academic year?

julio 2020-04-15 21:02:51 UTC #646

If we had adequate testing, and could quickly identify carriers, we could open schools. But we don't have the testing capability, and in the absence of a federally-driven push to get there, we won't (it's not profitable enough, I suspect)... although I'm sure that some states will attempt it, if only because the modern role of schools as day-care for kids whose parents both have to work to make ends meet. If the schools don't re-open, a lot of workers cannot go back to work, since stay-at-home parents are so rare now.

Schools are quickly developing distance-learning / tele-learning capabilities. These are, as of now, probably not a great substitute for in-class teaching (at least where teacher-student ratios are reasonable, and teachers are high quality)... and we lose some fairly important socialization skill learning. But that said, the distance learning techniques will improve - probably already are in a lot of districts.

Now, this means no extra-curriculars. No high school athletics. No football and basketball players angling for "college scholarships" (I use the words advisedly, since many/most of these kids aren't really interested in education...). A disruption of the major-college athletic pipeline.

Not that, in all honesty, I care much about this last. We may not end up with precisely the same professional athletic entertainers, but when the games resume, the rosters will be filled. If, along the way, some institutions of higher education discover that being minor-league football and basketball factories isn't central to their missions... I'm OK with that, too.

zambonir 2020-04-15 22:44:22 UTC #647

It seems more likely that schools would reopen and then eventually close again. Same with restaurants and lots of businesses/job. Start school early (in regions where school doesn't start until September) and be prepared for the possibility of another shutdown as early as November or just after the holidays.

I don't think anyone has ever doubted it would be back next year, it's just a question of how prepared will be. And in the short-term the greater concern is "re-opening" American too soon and either failing to sufficiently slow transmission or having a rebound before summer's even started.

flyers19rw 2020-04-15 23:10:12 UTC #648

All that Trump does is stir the whatever. Every day he just issues at least one more absurd idea. The one thing that he can’t get away from is the fact that on his watch hundreds of thousands of Americans got unnecessarily sick. Tens of thousands unnecessarily died. That’s all that needs to be drilled on. Ditching the WHO; suspending Congress; claiming unconstitutional powers; etc. are all attempts to be outrageous and move attention away from what he did/didn’t do as the leader of the nation in an emergency. Hopefully people will not fall for his ploy and allow him to move the goal posts away from the real issues.

LoneStarPhan 2020-04-15 23:10:17 UTC #649

A return to normal, meaning as things were as we started the year 2020, is not going to happen. Things will return but there will be some changes to the way things get done that I believe will result in a change in what is normal.

I think we must be smart in introducing changes that can allow people to return to work while reducing the chances that COVID-19 or the next new virus can wreck havoc with our economy. I don't think anyone really knows how this will all play out.

I do see the possibility that college athletics is disrupted for the next two years. I don't see professional sports returning to their normal seasons before the summer of 2021. We must take a look at what our health care system should look like and I would hope it is rebuilt based on professional planning, not political direction, but I don't really have much hope for that.

Obviously we must get kids back on track for their schooling. Colleges are struggling as well and may be limited in capacity for new entering students if large numbers do not finish and graduate this year. Sports might not be the top issue colleges have to figure out in the coming months.

Sadly, many businesses will not recover and it may take years for employment to get back to the level that existed starting this year. Even health care jobs are potentially at risk as as many medical facilities are under used due to bans on nonessential procedures. Here in Texas, some facilities have laid off personnel due to the sudden drop in income. We have had two dental appointments moved into May (likely will be moved to June) as dentists are closed except for emergencies. I have had a doctors appointment cancelled and not rescheduled. I believe this is happening all over the country and will result in a significant loss of revenue to doctors, clinic, and even hospitals that are not filled with COVID patients.

julio 2020-04-16 03:30:09 UTC #650

The challenge here is to determine what "professional planning" means. Many of what we currently consider "health care professionals" are, in the United States, extremely well compensated - e.g., they earn far more than their equivalents anywhere else in the world. This is true of medical specialists, and it's true of hospital management, and it's true of those who manage access and resources (e.g., insurance company executives). If we leave it to these "professionals" to re-engineer our health care system, it's a pretty safe bet that these folks will continue to get what look a lot like monopoly rents.

If by "professionals," we mean health care experts who aren't on the gravy train - perhaps people similar to the late Uwe Reinhardt - we might get something rational...but people like Uwe have always been pretty rare.

Sports should never be the top issue confronting America's colleges and universities. Much as we may like collegiate athletics, they are not central to the missions of these institutions. It's perhaps reflective of the longstanding persistence of anti-intellectualism in the USA, and actual disdain for education in so many quarters, that so many Americans identify colleges and universities primarily on the basis of their football or basketball prowess - not on the basis of their academic - teaching or research - quality.

I had an appointment with my primary care physician yesterday morning. Routine periodic follow-up. We did it by teleconference. Obviously, she couldn't take my blood pressure or listen to my heart and lungs, but we discussed things... and they waived the copay.

Purduke 2020-04-16 03:55:24 UTC #651

rpmcmurphy:

I think that Dr. Emanuel and the Harvard study are speaking the hard truths here. I’m afraid that there is still a lot of misunderstanding and denial going on, even among those who are in full support of current mitigation measures. This virus is incredibly contagious.

Look what happened at the South Dakota meat packing plant. Two weeks ago the entire state had only 108 cases and 1 fatality. The governor, Kristi Noem, refused to issue a stay at home order, and ridiculed the idea of social distancing. Now, there are 545 (and counting) confirmed cases among the meat plant’s 3700 employees.

Incredibly, the governor still refuses to shut things down.

Rationally, one would think that in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that a person would change their mind, but many just double down.

I don't think the Smithfield thing would support a complete lockdown state wide. I don't think that follows, especially given the wider stats you cited. Even if there had been a stay-at-home order in the state at the time, food processing facilities would have been exempt as essential businesses, and rightfully so IMO. If you want to say that the state should have insisted on more spacing -- eb=ven reducing throughput if needed to achieve it -- that I could understand. Ditto mandating PPE masks etc. But not a shutdown -- before or after. As an aside, the number of florist deliveries I saw in "progressive" CT this Easter was crazy. But I guess florists qualify as essential businesses in a lot of states. For some reason.

LoneStarPhan 2020-04-16 04:21:16 UTC #652

I guess every business is essential for someone if only the persons who lose their livelihood.

Is it possible to put together a group to study health care that can be objective? I always think that if you get smart people who can address the problems with no interest to drive the solution to someone's financial gain, real problems can be addressed and good solutions found. What is the best way to deliver quality health care to all Americans? What is the best we can do? How can we pay for this system? Of course, regardless of whatever system such a group would come up with, it would only get as far as the Congress was willing to enact it.

I really don't know what the answers are but I still believe that good, smart people working together can forge solutions to problems that can benefit most everyone.

zambonir 2020-04-16 04:30:25 UTC #653

"The optics of having football players on campus when it is deemed unsafe for other students to be there would not just be bad, it would potentially undercut the argument that college sports are tethered to education."

zambonir 2020-04-16 06:26:02 UTC #654

interesting look back at how one soccer match between Italian and Spanish clubs had huge consequences. Hits home for me, I was at an MLS game in Portland on March 1, the day after our first publicly identified case (and they held one more on March 7 too).

rpmcmurphy 2020-04-16 14:14:43 UTC #655

But, respectfully, the person(s) who carried the virus into the plant had to contract it somewhere - most likely from the greater Sioux Falls community, which had no safety orders in place.

So far, no other food processing plants in states with shutdown orders have experienced this kind of problem. I understand that meat processing plants are essential and should not be closed, but not having the state under a shutdown order greatly increased the chances of what happened here. Might it have happened anyway? Sure, but far less likely.

This is a lesson of how insidious this virus is. I think that we are likely to see an explosion of cases in the Sioux Falls region in coming weeks. The mayor of the city is begging for a shutdown order for the greater region, which has not as yet been forthcoming. He is trying to establish one for the city itself, but the governor is again ridiculing the idea.

The lack of a statewide shutdown increased the odds of this outbreak (now the largest single-source hotspot in the nation). The continued lack of a shutdown order will only facilitate its spread.

andyb 2020-04-16 14:50:43 UTC #656

Liberty University is turning into a cautionary tale. While many rural counties do not have many residents that pass through urban areas that are more likely to be hotspots, a college campus almost certainly does. This is why it will be tough to have sports with fans all year. Without fans is a trickier question, but we really need to get the number of new infections much closer to zero to have any shot at a broad reopening of the economy.

xogfog 2020-04-16 15:20:21 UTC #657

If they only bring College Football back, then the players should sue to get paid, because we all know that Football and Basketball are the only big moneymakers in college sports, this could be the best opportunity to get some justice for the athletes who generate all that money, but see none of it.

bkeich 2020-04-16 16:25:57 UTC #658

The issue is that there really is no realistic way to get infections to near zero without treatments, and those are still next year at best. I dont know that I would use Liberty as an example as well, Jerry Falwell is not a credible person, lets just say that as not to offend anyone, but the real issue here is crowds and how we can move forward, and my fear is that we really cannot until <> next year.

Herd immunity will happen eventually and stop this from wiping out humanity or civilization, but remember, we are still at an infection rate of appx. 0.1% worldwide (maybe higher with unreported cases), so there are probably very few people with any immunity (unless there is some natural immunicty we havent recognized yet).

We are going to be locked down for a long time I fear, we are just going to have to find a way to have an economy and life until then.

andyb 2020-04-16 18:42:29 UTC #659

The main point is that if we let sports happen, even without crowds, then infections will occur. We are not going to have herd immunity in the next year, so whatever decision occurs needs to balance risk of future infections against the economy (with the error hopefully going to protecting life).

I have no idea when that will occur, but it just seems that playing a MLB baseball game in an empty park will probably activate 500-1000 people to pull off the game when you count all the secondary people need to actually run and telecast the game. Maybe we can do that in the back half of the summer. We probably cannot even think about trying that till June.

At some point we do need to loosen the rules. Maybe when infections decrease to perhaps a few thousand a day nationally we will be close to there, as long as we have robust testing in place. We are not even close on that of course. That would mean likely over a million tests a day which is something like our current rate. MLB might have to test everyone (even support personnel) weekly and they can't hoard tests. So they really need to be able to conduct that level of testing while the rest of the general public can do the same.

For now, let's check back in a month and see where we are. Of course that does not seem to be the course that most states with Republican governments will take.

Purduke 2020-04-16 19:10:05 UTC #660

rpmcmurphy:

But, respectfully, the person(s) who carried the virus into the plant had to contract it somewhere - most likely from the greater Sioux Falls community, which had no safety orders in place.

So far, no other food processing plants in states with shutdown orders have experienced this kind of problem. I understand that meat processing plants are essential and should not be closed, but not having the state under a shutdown order greatly increased the chances of what happened here. Might it have happened anyway? Sure, but far less likely.

This is a lesson of how insidious this virus is. I think that we are likely to see an explosion of cases in the Sioux Falls region in coming weeks. The mayor of the city is begging for a shutdown order for the greater region, which has not as yet been forthcoming. He is trying to establish one for the city itself, but the governor is again ridiculing the idea.

The lack of a statewide shutdown increased the odds of this outbreak (now the largest single-source hotspot in the nation). The continued lack of a shutdown order will only facilitate its spread.

I won't argue that Stay at Home has no impact in the equation, but I think the issue with the meat packing facilities is the density and working conditions. And I also have a bias about the hygiene being at least indirectly involved. Undocumented. I've read that even in states with SaH orders, more than 40% of workers are exempted as essential, who in turn tend to be lower compensated, therefore less able to distance where they live yada yada.

As to no-SaH state meat packer having a Cv19 problem, I don't believe that is accurate. I was reading an AP story this morning about meat shortage fears that indicated 6 plants had infection problems, including Pennsylvania (Hazleton? It didn't say) and Colorado (Greeley?). I think as we get moving toward some level of re-opening we are going to have to focus more on managing density out of our operations vs relying upon SaH as the cornerstone. Almost by definition.

LoneStarPhan 2020-04-16 20:02:37 UTC #661

I see a major problem in any sort of opening of MLB in the coming months. Regardless of what form they craft for the season, what happens when there is a positive COVID-19 test. Does that team stop playing for two weeks? Are team that had contact in the previous week or so also put in isolation for two weeks? Just seems impossible to run any type of meaningful season under these conditions. A few cases of COVID-19 would shut it all down.

rpmcmurphy 2020-04-16 20:10:19 UTC #662

You are right about those other meat packing plants. I stand corrected. I also agree that the density issues are a key factor. But I still think that since the Sioux Falls situation involves the largest single-point outbreak in the nation, at least a regional shutdown for a few weeks would have been prudent.