I agree with your time estimates, it's just that every person who speaks publicly about the timeline has said 18 months, at least those that I've heard who were in a position to know these things. A J&J rep said that they were still expecting mid-year next year with their traditional vaccine even with accelerated protocols.
I am not anti-government by any means. To me we're basically living with the consequences of Reagan's "I'm from the government and I'm here to help" joke, with the compounded impact of a chief executive who is both anti-government and bad at governing. I just don't think it needs to run college sports (or any sports). But obviously the D of E already has a lot of impact on college sports. Truth be told if we have the same people in charge come January it wouldn't surprise me if they suspended Title IX, which is obviously going to be a huge factor in deciding which non-revenue sports survive in 2021 or 2022 (assuming there's no football).
Always glad to hear your intelligent, articulate voice SF!
I'd disagree with certain points here...I'm not worried about Mark Cuban or Jeffrey Lurie losing money on their teams. I'm worried about marginal athletes losing their entire careers, I'm worried about people employed by symbiotic businesses losing their entire incomes, I'm worried about students and teachers and professors relying on what is essentially a counterfeit educational remote-learning model (at least in terms of accountability and legitimate educational support) for another year(?) or so, and I'm worried about what happens to social organizations and churches that are ESSENTIAL features of our communities if they can't assemble. And I'm not in favor of dying for any economy, no matter how corrupt. I'm OK with dying for the people who will be irreparably damaged by a long shut-down. We are already seeing a large spike in suicides...already. And suicides do a boatload of peripheral damage to the lives of friends and relatives (spoken from personal experience...). And, honestly, I'm worried about social unrest. I saw two people almost come to blows today about whether one should be wearing a mask in a particular situation. It was seriously nasty--people have lost their patience. As a scientist who often deals with unanticipated consequences of even small changes in regulations, I'm predicting that the negative unintended consequences of this shutdown will be enormous. I'm not sure that the cure (LONG-TERM) would not be worse than the disease.
I am also resigned to the fact I'm probably not going to convince anyone in any decision-making capacity of this, and all the decision makers (even Trump's people) are extremely risk-averse, so I'm anticipating they keep the lid on until there are almost no existing cases, as the NBA doc suggests. He's not just speaking for the NBA, he's speaking with the voice of almost all administrative risk managers and health-care people (at least those I know). I know you have all dealt with those people--I do seminars for them, and they still don't get that there is no such thing as a risk-free world.
Read this interesting article which includes a information about the owner of the Sixers and Hanhnemqnn aHospitql.
I think we can find some happy medium. I’m not opposed to risks. The problem is I can take risks it’s my own life, but it’s not fair to risk others. I just don’t trust most business leaders, particularly people like Bezos and those discussed in the article. I won’t take risks for profits.
I completely agree with this. It's very easy for business leaders to rationalize keeping their businesses open because of the benefit to their workers and customers. I want to see them donating a big part of their salaries first. Politicians and the mega-rich need to share in the costs of any shutdown.
BREAKING: A tiger at the Bronx Zoo has tested positive for Covid-19. 6 other tigers and lions at the zoo are also showing symptoms. Believed to have been infected by an asymptomatic zoo worker. All doing well. To my knowledge, this is the first animal to test positive in the U.S.
— Natasha Daly ( @natashaldaly ) April 5, 2020
Not to mention the good Christians who run Hobby Lobby.

Hobby Lobby Closes Stores, Slashes Salaries Following 'God Is in Control'...
Hobby Lobby has reportedly begun closing stores, and slashing employee salaries — following [...]
Will be reading the article in question later.

Paige Williams 🔍☕️ on Twitter
“"many of the nations desperate Americans have spent the last few months praising as exemplary models of public health management do not actually have the virus under control" at least not to degree that promises "a (relatively) quick end to...

David Wallace-Wells on Twitter
““The tests we are using may have a failure rate of about 30%. That means about one in every three people being tested could be getting the wrong result. You can’t build any kind of public health response on top of information that faulty.”...

There Is No Plan For the End of the Coronavirus Crisis
On top of Trump’s ongoing mismanagement, there is a shocking lack of a strategy, at any level of government, for what the country will do next.
Its a PR move. Hes obsessed with his own appearance. I have no time for Varadkar. Hes done reasonably well during this crisis by comparison to the UK and US but that hasn't been hard.
He also came out with a quite about people abusing the welfare payments while at the same time loosening the rules for tax exiles which shows where his priorities lie. Hes a Tory who cares little about actual people.
On a personal note, my mother-in-law passed away from coronavirus on Saturday. She wasn't tested, but if it walks like a duck........
I tend to agree w/ the general consensus that the FDA needs to fast-track approvals on a vaccine, begin opening up the economy, keep large gatherings on hold. Even religious services can be managed I would think.
Interesting that the University of Washington model is now projecting fewer deaths (81,000). Of course this story is on the same day that the Washington Post reports that our death count is likely missing many deaths that just never got tested for the virus. If I recall correctly, the only way to estimate the total deaths in Puerto Rico after the hurricane was to compare overall death rates before and during for similar time periods.

Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but...
Only people who test positive are counted.
If I had to guess we missed half of the first 1,000 deaths and the percent we miss has settled down into the 10%-20% range now that we are looking for it. Less developed countries probably are missing a majority of deaths in their count. Really scared what happens if this tears through Africa at some point and there is no date to really catch it.
I hope that is true. I just fear the lack of great inputs into many of these models might be giving us a false sense of security. A new wave in the lax states that have not locked down everything as heavily is a concern. I imagine those states have less reliable reporting as well. Any state with a small number of per capita tests is probably under-reporting everything.
With testing ramping up, the percentage of missed cases and missed deaths will go down, probably already have gone down. That makes it likelier that signs of peaking are real in many areas. I think we still haven't seen the inevitable emergence of more hot spots in the South and central Midwest. Grasping a positive signs.
Lawman -- I'm very sorry to hear about your mother in law.
We in Lehigh County have become an emerging hot spot in PA. Allentown is high on a per capita basis. We had a lot of commuters/travelers to NYC.