Are we good enough to win in 2020?

[phillychuck]

Just the lineup for starters...I'm arranging them how I want 'em, not necessarily how they will end up. Fangraphs projected WAR.

Hoskins 1B projected 3.0 WAR
Kingery 2B projected 1.0 WAR and add 1 WAR for 2B defense
Didi SS projected 2.2 WAR
Segura 3B projected 2.3 WAR (will lose value at 3B but will be a better fielder there relative to other 3B
Realmuto C projected 4.2 WAR
Harper RF projected 4.3 WAR
Haseley CF projected about 2 WAR if full-time
McCutcheon LF projected 2.1 WAR

Starting lineup has about 22 WAR, replacement number of wins is about 52, so this gets us to 74 wins. Is there enough value on the bench, in the starting pitchers, and in the bullpen to get us there?

Starters

Nola projected 4.0 WAR
Wheeler projected 3.3 WAR (a bit conservative, I think, by about 1 WAR)
Arrieta projected 1.6 WAR
Eflin projected 1.0 WAR (again, too conservative by about 1 WAR)
Velasquez projected 1.0 WAR (about as good as any other guy we have now)

So we have about 11 WAR to 13 WAR of starting pitching --let's assume 13, that gets us to 87 wins--bullpen as currently constituted projects to about 2-3 WAR, and the bench to about 1.5 WAR

That's 91.5 without any more trades. One more #3 quality starter and a 3B or CF upgrade puts us solidly I the low to mid 90s. I'm convinced....

[bkeich]

Problem is that is with no injuries. I think it really isn’t enough, I assume we lose 5WAR or more to the guys that simply didn’t play enough to reach their number. We replace them with.... Nick Williams? Quinn?

I honestly do think we are a little weak in depth, but it is December. But of course we probably aren’t spending a lot more.

Funny how the numbers you hit for the WAR from each area almost exactly match my post from a couple weeks ago of how to get 35 WAR. Makes me think my numbers weren’t too far off

[zambonir]

We're not getting a 3B or CF upgrade. I think that's safe to say now that Rendon has signed (as Donaldson will get snapped up too).

Unless, of course, we actually trade Bohm or Haseley for someone.

Otherwise I think Segura is our 2B all year, Kingery 3B until Bohm comes up.

Listen if Hoskins, Harper and Realmuto deliver and Cutch is fine and Segura bounces back and Haseley can sustain what he did last year, everything's hunky-dory. Alternately, if Cutch reverts to 2016 (age, injury, he was 1.0 that year) and Kingery and Hoskins don't adjust and Segura is in decline (he was 2.3 FG, 1.3 BBR) and Grigorius doesn't bounce back, we're cooked - but if so adding more talent/$ wouldn't fix it either, and they know that.

[BostonRoss]

I think this assessment is too optimistic. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the projected WAR for 2019 was similar, especially on the offensive side where the players mostly haven't changed, and the projected 2020 WAR for Didi is probably not much different than the projected (and achieved) 2019 WAR for Cesar. The starting lineup probably did put up about 20 WAR in 2019, and that includes the negative WAR Franco (I'm not sure that he was projected to be negative, but I'm sure his projection was low).

The Fangraphs projections imply that everyone will produce at least as much WAR as last season (except Kingery) and that the injured players (Cutch, Didi, Arrieta) will all rebound to some extent. A few players are projected to produce even better than 2019 (Hoskins, VV). The assumptions about the bench and bullpen don't seem to consider that there are always players with negative WAR (Williams being the prime example for 2019).

I still think we are in the mid 80s as presently constituted. It would take good luck to expect more. While I do expect some more pitching signings, I don't see this moving us more than another couple of wins.

[Lawman]

In a word? No. That being said, I think we're slightly closet to being in Wild Card contention then last year. But, legit WS contenders......? No.

[Squire]

I vote "yes" I think the team significantly underperformed and will improve merely by the presence of a legit pitching coach that the pitchers don't hate. We had in my opinion a historic amount of bullpen injuries.

[bigegypt0417]

I'm with you on this one...any improvement in pitching or even having a capable bullpen and this team is a 90 win team.

[andyb]

I think Hoskins really needs to get back to 900 OPS form for us to be serious contenders. Much about his season last year suggests his problems are fixable. His strike zone discipline was pretty good for most of the time he struggled (I think it got worse at the end, but the whole team was struggling at that point).

[California_Dreamin]

Absolutely. I was probably one of the most outspoken critics of Kapler's antics, and to his credit, he has acknowledged that in his desire to gain every analytical advantage he oft times forgot that his players were not chess pieces but real human beings, guys who were not as married to this system as he was. I also felt that Young was a pretty bad pitching coach and fully expect the staff to improve under Price.

And I agree with Squire...the bullpen was almost historically injured last year, can't be this bad again. Of course, I think the antics of Kapler and Young contributed to this but understand there is no real way to prove this.

In fact, I think one of the advantages the Phillies have this season is that they are no longer the darlings of the experts, probably ranking behind at least 6 teams [Dodgers, Brewers, Cards, Cubs, Braves and Nats.] There is a lot of talent on this team and if it meshes they will be a very good team.

[zambonir]

The bullpen as currently constituted is nerve-wracking. Hector still our closer (which I don't mind because that's not necessarily the highest-leverage spot, but we don't have a reliable healthy high-leverage #2 either). Arano may not even be ready in April as far as I recall. Morgan and Seranthony coming off injuries. A failed starting pitcher (Velasquez?) TBD. Alvarez and Suarez promising but they were also bright spots mostly relative to the other dreck. The injuries hurt a lot but three of those injured players are also not here (well, Robertson is), and haven't been replaced. I'm all for the fungible approach but we'll see if they can find the right guys (or if it can click for someone like Hammer, Davis or Garcia this year).

Obviously there are still going to be changes (even if it's not clear how they'll find the money). But it's certainly not last year's model (where a strong pen is meant to bolster an average rotation). The game did seem to move away from that.

Hoskins is crucial. But it's also not clear why they hit so few home runs last year, relative to the boom (and while the pitchers were giving up so many, though they eventually fixed that).

Nola is probably going to have a better season regardless. Hopefully Arrieta is healthy. If both those things happen and Wheeler is Wheeler we'll think Price is a genius even if he hasn't actually done anything. But going with Eflin and Pivetta (or whoever) still feels risky. Before the market opened a lot of us thought the likes of Roark still wouldn't be good enough as the second free agent. He just got $12 million and we might not even have $9 million to spend (which is reportedly what we offered Hamels).

I'll be curious to see what the over/under is as the line-ups finalize. Last year I don't think it ever got higher than 88 (nor were we ever actually ahead of the Nats, may have been tied once Harper signed).

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir...no need to wrack your nerves about the bullpen just yet, it is likely to look much different come spring. If there is one spot were I see the Phils still adding talent its there. Probably 2-3 guys. And I fully expect the pen to improve simply because I think Girardi/Price have a better grasp of just how to use it.

[saycheese]

Have to see how the rest of the offseason plays out. I do not think they are done by any means. Right now with the managerial an coaching changes, Wheeler and Didi they should be in the mix the entire year, I think the 88-90 win that was predicted above is about right. The trick here is how do we get to 95 wins? I still think we need another bat and I think we need another starter. I think we may have enough in the bullpen. Its a matter of health there and I do believe Girardi will use these guys better.

[zambonir]

I agree it will be different but where's the money coming from? Granted, last year's lesson actually is don't spend too much. You need diversity - of age and salary. They could use at least one good get, but I think we basically have what we have, barring a trade (and even there it will likely be for an Alvarez or Nicasio type, not a proven late/high-leverage guy).

Until July, that is.

Let the great bullpen dart throw begin: Bargain-hunting...

[flyers19rw]

Like some others, I don't think that the Phillies are done shuffling the personnel deck as of yet. Nola/Wheeler/Arrieta/Eflin/Howard shouldn't be the rotation coming out of ST. Maybe Smyly can be brought back but a more reliable SP needs to be added to the mix. Arietta should be ready to go; removing bone spurs isn't TJ surgery but there's a chance for failure with any arm issue. Howard shouldn't be pushed too hard; too fast. The BP doesn't concern me. Like others have said, its a fungible position. Pitchers rise out of nowhere there and fall as well.
My sense is that Bohm is the 3B by mid season. Out of ST, the IF probably will be Gregorious at SS; Kingery 2B; Segura 3B and Hoskins with JT behind the plate. The key player there is Hoskins. If what we saw with him in the second half of last season is what he's going to be, that's a big problem. IF McCutchen is well, he, along with Hasely and Harper is a fine OF backed up by Bruce and Quinn.
Is this bunch good enough to win the ring next season? Who knows? Its why the games get played. Better managing and coaching could improve the club by eight or so wins (see CD's appraisal above). Add in a few more for better health and the Phillies have as good of a shot as any other team. My call is that the Braves will regress, especially of they lose Donaldson; The Nats will miss Rendonmore than they think. Can't count on Cabrera and Kendrick to repeat their '19 performances and Zimmerman is cooked. The Mets will be the Mets. Losing Wheeler hurts and Syndergaard isn't unbeatable any more. Why not the Phillies?

[julio]

Like some others, I don't think that the Phillies are done shuffling the personnel deck as of yet.

It's December 12th. Spring training starts in two months. There is NO possibility that the Phils are "done" two months early. In any year.

[zambonir]

They are certainly not done. But I think their apparent intention to stay below the tax on Opening Day will hold, and that means most free agents are off the table. And trades could require both prospects and losing salary. Also the market is moving a lot more quickly than last year so many potential additions will simply not be available in January.

The new coaching staff isn't going to be worth 8 wins. That's a lot. Also, it assumes the old coaching staff didn't actually add value, which it did. The team still won a lot of games until mid-June. The defense was much better (though we should still have the same team there for the most part). The third-rate bullpen actually overachieved.

To put it in WAR terms you are not replacing a -4 manager/pitching coach with a +4 manager/pitching coach. Maybe you're replacing a -1 with a +2.

Like I said I'll be curious to see the over/unders when it's closer to March.

[allentown]

The answer to the question posed in the title of this thread depends upon how you define terms. Yes, I think this team, with the non-major changes that always happen between now and opening day will be good enough for a reasonable expectation that they can win a wildcard. Despite 'anything can happen in the playoffs' and the releative unimportance of #4/5 SPs in the playoffs, I can't see them as a WS team. Still, reasonable luck on injury recoveries, a normal or bit lesser rate of new injuries, and reasonably expected bounce-backs from a couple of our guys and it is very reasonable to expect to be in the playoffs. Arrietta is very key.

[bkeich]

The one thing I really dont want to see them do is move ANY prospects. We just dont have enough, we are already fielding a team with too many high priced, older players and the simple fact is our minor league system is not very good and their are not alot of options coming soon. This was a strange rebuild, we rebuilt, cashed it in, created a fairly small window that this team might succeed in an are not sitting in the middle of that.

Bohm, Howard, Stott should be extremely off limits unless we trade for another prospect of equal value. I could see them moving on from Stott if they think his best position is 3B, but if he can handle SS or 2B than I dont see any reason to even consider moving one of these 3. We need the low cost WAR in the next 5 years, desperately.

Williams, Herrera, Quinn, myriad of relievers, failing starters (VV, Pivetta) are all in play. But none of them have any value at the moment, maybe during the season one will start performing and we can get something for them. The issue is do we put them on the ML roster and hope or stash them in AAA and really hope they can build something. Maybe we get something for one of them, but I wouldnt mind seeing VV and Pivetta in the bullpen, maybe they are good at that (VV showed some promise at times last year).

Segura is the guy that I think might be moved, but I dont agree with it. If they do want to stay under the cap, then he is really the only option if they still want a SP (need, really) or some bullpen help.

Moniak is another interesting idea. He might bring something, but I doubt very much. He is mostly redundant with Haseley, who has clearly passed him. If he starts to perform maybe one of them could be moved for a solid prospect.

Realmuto is another interesting thought, but once again, I wouldnt do it. Assuming he signs an extension than any discussion is over. But what if they can't come to terms, do we move on. I hope not.

We can have a wild card team this year with some good luck and a little 1st year manager surge. But frankly, we are not better than Atlanta and probably still not better than Washington. My guess is that we get exposed (again) as being an average team. But who knows, those teams can have problems too.

[zambonir]

If JT is determined to hit the market and we're not doing well in July obviously he's gone, but so is Arrieta. I don't think it will come to that (meaning JT will be already be signed, and they won't be sellers).

You trade Bohm if you can get Bryant. You trade Haseley if you can get Marte. Would be hard not to include them in those deals (and if not it would cost you in other ways). But that would be very short-term thinking and since they seem disinclined to take on the salary to boot...

What we have we'll need to trade from in July but it's not bringing back a superstar (that we can't pay anyway) right now.

[tom81]

Williams, Herrera, Quinn, myriad of relievers, failing starters (VV, Pivetta) are all in play. But none of them have any value at the moment, maybe during the season one will start performing and we can get something for them.

I think this mish mash, plus Eflin, is the key to the Phillies season next year and maybe the next few years. I think/hope we get a real positive surprise from at least two and we get to the promised land.