Are we good enough to win in 2020?

[Jazzhead]

Are we good enough to win? We're probably in the toughest division in baseball, but why not? Obviously, any prediction of this sort requires projection, but if by midseason Bohm and Howard are in the majors and productive, I like the chances of this team. Here's the starting lineup I favor:

Cutch - LF (power, OBP)
Herrera - CF (contact)
Hoskins - 1b (power, OBP)
Harper - RF (power, OBP)
Didi - SS (contact, power)
Realmuto -C (contact, power)
Bohm - 3B ( power)
Kingery - 2B (contact, OBP)

[phillychuck]

Caveats added...

Cutch - LF (power, OBP) depends on injury recovery and aging--I think he will be OK, though
Herrera - CF (contact) seems like the team is leaning to Haseley
Hoskins - 1b (power, OBP) obviously, needs to avoid prolonged slumps
Harper - RF (power, OBP) OBP will be there, hoping for more consistent contact
Didi - SS (contact, power) depends on full injury recovery
Realmuto -C (contact, power) most dependable regular
Bohm - 3B ( power) does he translate? Segura would be here to start with consistent contact
Kingery - 2B (contact, OBP) will never be a high OBP player; chases too much

[Austinfan]

It comes down to coaching, we need to develop some young pitching, that's what put us over the top in 1980 and 2008,

1980:
Bob Walk (23) 27 starts, 11-7 4.57, Christenson (26), 14 starts, 5-1, 4.03, 74 IP, Bystrom (21), 5 starts, 5-0, 1.50, 36 IP
Noles (23), 48g, 81 IP, 3.87, Saucier (23), 40g, 50 IP, 3.42

2008.
Hamels (24) 33 starts, 14-10, 3.09, 227 IP, Kendrick (23) 30 starts, 11-9, 5.43, 156 IP, Happ (25), 4 starts, 1-0, 3.69, 32 IP

Now I don't think we have the next Hamels (though Howard has that kind of upside) but hopefully we can find someone better than Kendrick or Lerch.
But you do need to find a few pitchers, either off the discard pile (Condrey, Romero) and/or a few kids who raise their game and eat key innings at the back of the rotation and the pen.

[allentown]

I don't think we so much developed Hamels in the skill/art of pitching as got him healthy and separated from his former extra-curriculurs. I think he was basically the same pitcher from the time we drafted him, but with injury and behavior woes in not all that many minor league innings.

[zambonir]

Herrera is gone, I'm sticking to that. And the team is better with Segura and Kingery as an extra. But we'll see how 3B and CF play out.

We all know how many question marks there are. Broadly they fall into three categories:

Aging/injured/subpar vets: can Cutch, Didi and Segura repeat past success?

Young vets - Will Hoskins turn it around? how good is Kingery?

Rookies - given the above, can the team weather the struggles of a 25% rookie (for all intents and purposes) starting line-up? Or maybe they won't struggle initially (Hoskins sure didn't. Kingery obviously did).

Honestly, it's a lot to hope for, even if Harper and JT are rocks. Wheeler helps a lot but I don't know that I expect much from Arrieta. 100% health doesn't mean he magically turns back into 2016 Arrieta. Or even 2018 Arrieta (when he was 2.9 WAR and 3.96 ERA was considered a disappointment!)

Today the betting line is:

Braves 90.5
National 89.5
Mets 86.5
Phillies 84.5

As a gambler, super-tempting (and stupid, since I'd still be leading with my fandom). But winning that bet also doesn't mean it's a wild card team.

[phillychuck]

Very unlikely to have 4 teams over .500 in the East (unless the Marlins win 55). Mets are getting a lot of respect as a good long-shot option to win the division. I don't make a lot of predictions, but one of these 4 teams is going to disappoint. Hope it's not us. I'll bet the UNDER 351 wins for those four teams combined, I think.

[zambonir]

Well, last year we had 97, 93, 86 and 81, so it doesn't seem that far-fetched to me. If the Phillies had just beat each of the other teams 1 more time we still would have been the fourth-place, 84-win team. If we'd beaten the Marlins one more time we would have been over .500.

Mets do seem overrated but I thought that last year too. Last year the Vegas lines were Nats/Phillies 89, Braves 86 Mets 85.5. So yes, one of them disappointed!

[phillychuck]

Indeed. I think this year I would take the over on us, and the most likely under might be the Nats (at this point, signings still coming...).

[Coresoftball20]

Quick Answer, absolutely not. The definition of insanity if doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result each time. We needed another started besides Wheeler...what did we do? We are putting our 4th and 5th starter in the hands of the same guys that have stunk the past 2 years and didnt get the job done then. But somehow, thats gonna change and Valasquez, Efflin or Eickhoff (2 of them) will no wall of a sudden become viable. We let guys like Julio Teheran who we could have got for 10mil a year and he has a 3.62 career ERA in the same division go elsewhere without trying to snag him. He would have made an excellent number 4 starter. Then let those other scrubs fight for number 5. Mets have loaded up on pitchers while we sat around while the Nats and Braves are still better. I wast asking for another stud, just a guy like Teheran to help settle the 4th position down. Then, not one reliever we tried to give a flier to and tons signed for one year deals. Mets sign Betances, Dodgers sign Treinen..these were 2 stud relievers that if they return to year before last form, they are shut down guys for cheap. Why not try? No, we sat around with the same stuff.
We are 4th in this division.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I am actually bullish on Eflin this year. Last year, he was our best pitcher in April, May and June. He was terrible in July and August, and good in September. I tend to place this at the hands of the pitching coach. As a 4th starter, he is not one of our problems. 1.5 WAR last year. I am reasonably confident he will do better in 2020.

[Lucky_Beagle]

yes, although I do not see it as probably. If the right players step up and injuries are avoided it is possible. As the Nationals and others have shown qualify and anything is possible...of course it is much more possible with very good starting pitching.

[zambonir]

Yeah, I don't see the likes of Teheran or Roark as being that big an upgrade over Eflin. And Eickhoff is no longer with the franchise (perhaps you meant Pivetta). It's fair to wonder if Eflin is locked in as a good enough #4 though. And Betances and Treinen weren't cheap: $10-10.5 million is practically the top of the market (and almost what we're already paying Robertson) though of course they'd have gotten more if there weren't questions. Even if they were going to go over the tax that's not where I'd spend the $.

But their refusal to pay the tax (to this point) is not good. 3B and CF are still question marks. They're not done on the bullpen market, but a starter upgrade almost certainly has to wait until the deadline. At that point Howard should also be an option if it's two holes.

Could be a trade is still coming. Mostly though, if this team isn't good enough it will be because the position player core has failed. That's where the money is tied up.

No question they are third place at best until proven otherwise (not sure the Mets scare me). Wild card race could be tougher too.

[allentown]

To be completely honest, I'm more confident in Eflin than I am in Arrietta. I think Eflin will be a plus #4 starter. I agree with Florida_Sunshine that being forced by Young to focus more on high FB hurt him. A particular pitching style can be 100% right, on average and wrong for an individual pitcher. The Phillies need to stop playing square peg/round hole. As in football, the winning coaches structure the game plan for what is ideal for the players they actually have, not for what is best for some generic team or what fits the coaches' personal style/preference.

[flyers19rw]

There are a lot of “ifs” that go with the Phillies right now. That’s true with most teams going into ST. At least this year the Phillies have several in house options to call up when things go off of the tracks and they have a professional field staff to guide them. IMO, the affect of the change to Girardi can’t be under emphasized.
Stuff happens. Who’d have thought that the BP would have fallen apart last year like it did? Many of us thought that it was a strong point for the club. There’s just as much of a chance that the Braves regress with the losses of Donaldson and Markakis; that Scherzer goes the way of Halladay with the Nats also badly missIng Rendon and then the Mets do what the Mets do best-implode with things such as Thor wanting out. It’s going to be an interesting season. The Phillies should be in the mix until the end. It’s why the games get played.

[zambonir]

Hope I'm wrong but I still fear Young is going to be proven right with regards to Eflin. Which is to say, the pitcher he is, and is comfortable being, is still not sustainable/good enough, and if he's neither physically nor mentally capable of changing/evolving/adjusting, he won't stick. It certainly wasn't the high fastball that made Eflin fall apart in 2018 (5.76 ERA in the second half). Maybe he still wasn't as polished/healthy compared to now. We shall see. Young gets to be the scapegoat for now.

[Austinfan]

5.76 in the second half is misleading, he had a horrible July but pitched well down the stretch.

I think Eflin was screwed over by his pitching coach trying to make him into a different pitcher than what he was, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" should have been Young's mantra - somehow he deep sixed three young SPs who posted 3.80 FIPs the year before.

Seabold is a good example - a smart pitching coach won't try to turn him into Howard with an inferior FB, but work with what he has, and make him a reliable back of the rotation starter who knows how to pitch to contact.

That's why I think the right pitching coach could have a huge impact on this staff.

[BostonRoss]

I think the answer to the post title is no, unless they get lucky or unless there are further moves to be made (which could include in-season moves, but I think they need more than a couple of months of an impact player).

I wonder whether the Phillies management thinks the team is a lot better than I do. Or do they think they have made the moves they can make for now and are hoping for a lot of things to go right. I believe that if they truly think they are good enough and are wrong, it's Klentak's last stand.

[tom81]

I think Eflin was screwed over by his pitching coach trying to make him into a different pitcher than what he was, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" should have been Young's mantra - somehow he deep sixed three young SPs who posted 3.80 FIPs the year before.

I think Eflin had some physical issues last year, maybe nagging injuries or just poor conditioning, that impacted the effectiveness of his four seam fastball. A 25 year old should not lose 1mph from his FB without some reason. The coaching staff didn’t recognize this and kept having him pitch to an ineffective game plan to where his current tools were.
I think Eflin learned from last year, will be in better shape and have an effective 4 seam FB again. His new coaching staff is better than last years, and will incorporate his 4 seamer into his pitch mix but not to the exclusion of his other pitches. Progress is seldom linear, his bad months last year happened but don’t necessarily predict his future.

[flyers19rw]

IIRC, Eflin was one of the guys that voiced that he was having difficulty with the low seamed, slick balls that were being used last season. It could be that the effectiveness of a lot of pitchers in ‘20 will be determined by the type of baseball that will be used.

[Philsmania]

The Phillies do seem to need a lot of "ifs" to go right, just like in 1993. They also need some help in terms of misfortune to divisional opponents. The Braves are monster and they will need a lot to go wrong. Unless they sign Donaldson to replace him, losing Rendon will be a very big blow to the Nationals, bigger than losing Harper was last year. In Soto, they had a superstar to replace Harper's superstar level of production and in Eaton, they had an adequate replacement in rightfield. In the end, the Nationals didn't miss a beat in the outfield with Harper gone. They won't have a similar replacement at thirdbase though if they don't sign Donaldson. If they do, that would, in turn, weaken the Braves. And, one never knows when all that arm mileage may catch up to Strassburg, Scherzer and/or Corbin. The Mets always seem to be a soap opera so we shall see there as well.