9/25 Braves vs Phils game thread

[Aquapong]

Why not have Eflin pitch another inning?

[LoneStarPhan]

Bellatti not the answer. Sadly, Phillies should have won this game in 9.

Changing pitchers every inning just seems to me to increase your chances to lose the game. Of course, the Braves have used a bunch of pitchers as well.

8-6 going to the bottom of the 11th.

[Aquapong]

Stott is just off right now.

[LoneStarPhan]

Stott down swinging at pitch that was both high and outside.

Vierling first pitch ground out.

Realmuto singles, Marsh scores. Now 7-8.

Schwarber spot up, but it's Maton batting.

[zambonir]

Seems to me that when they don't change pitchers and it goes bad we ask why they didn't change pitchers, and vice versa.... Too bad it's not going that way for the Braves though.

With Eflin they clearly have already decided he's a late-inning one-innning pitcher instead of the chunk guy they imagined originally. And he was still having back spasms just a week ago.

At some point Thomson does have to stop looking at the names on the jerseys, I think, because between the injuries and the worn-out arms the guys he had relied on earlier are not necessarily the ones he can rely on now. A scary thought if this was Game 3 of a playoff series either way though.

[Lucky_Beagle]

you don't take hitters out of the line up when you will likely need them in another inning.

[LoneStarPhan]

Maton K's swinging at a pitch high and outside.

Braves win, 8-7. A very disappointing loss in a game the Phillies could have won.

They end the home stand 3-4. Not good enough.

Ten games on the road to end the season. Cubs 3; Nationals 4; Astros 3.

Record in final 20 games of the season, to date: 3-7. Not good.

[zambonir]

managers never manage for theoretical extra innings. Especially in the ghost runner era.

[zambonir]

Why do you think the final 20 games are more meaningful than 30? Or just, September? They are 10-10 in September and that is not surprising given the schedule and seasonlong performance on the road (.507) and against teams over .500 (32-40). We know they are probably going to make the playoffs and we know it's going to be very difficult to actually win in the playoffs but the team is about the same as ever. Better than Milwaukee, not better than the division winners (San Diego, we'll see).

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I think there’s an underlying dread of a 1964-ish collapse. That, plus a recent history of poor Septembers under Kapler and Girardi.

[zambonir]

Yeah, I honestly think the '64 thing is ridiculous. In 1964 they blew a huge lead for a spot in the World Series. This isn't even for a division title and they've never really held any kind of significant lead, not even for 6th place.

The more recent history I get, though the 2018 team had no business contending in the first place, the 2019 team was a mess long before September (Robertson, Cutch, firing the hitting coach) and the 2020 team only played nine more games than Joe Girardi managed this season.

This team is probably overachieving compared to 2020 and 2021, given their own injuries and growing bullpen issues. They are doing fine and they are going to be fine (I'm not afraid of jinxing it). This was a good homestand that's only disappointing because they came so close to taking three.

What's actually sad is that there was a fleeting moment where it looked like they could actually chase the Braves for 4th. But the Braves are better, and the injuries have caught up to the Phillies (or rather, they survived some really big ones for a while but haven't survived the more recent ones, including Bryce not just picking up where he left off. Castellanos and even Sosa are missed more than is obvious, and it now seems that Seranthony's injury not only affected him but overtaxed both Robertson and Hand).

And yet: Eflin looks good and the offense was good enough to win the game today even if the bullpen wasn't. It is a dangerous road trip ahead but I gotta think they are going to redeem themselves for the Cubs series, and then take of business as usual in DC.

[Philsmania]

Why do you think the final 20 games are more meaningful than 30? Or just, September? They are 10-10 in September and that is not surprising given the schedule and seasonlong performance on the road (.507) and against teams over .500 (32-40). We know they are probably going to make the playoffs and we know it's going to be very difficult to actually win in the playoffs but the team is about the same as ever. Better than Milwaukee, not better than the division winners (San Diego, we'll see).

Really, throughout the 21st Century, notwithstanding 2007-10 (2011 was a runaway), the Phillies have shown a knack for enterring the final week of the season at least nominally contending only to flatline that last week.

2003: Phillies go 1-6 in the final week, Marlins blow past them and the Phillies, in fact, sink to third behind the Astros.
2005: Phillies start the final week with the three-game losing streak including a late-inning meltdown at home to a bad Mets team which prevents them from pulling into a WC tie with the Astros, season-ending four game win streak proves to be too little too late..
2006: Phillies go 3-4 in the final week while the Padres and Dodgers each go 6-0 the final week to deny the Phillies the wildcard.
2018: Phillies technically still in it with ten to go but finish 2-8.
2019: Phillies just barely in wildcard contention when the last week begins but go 2-7 to close out the season.
2020: Phillies close out the season 1-7 fall out of the expanded Postseson.
2021: Phillies go 1-6 in the final week of the season to lose the division to the Braves.

That is where the September collapse narrative comes from. The final week swoons have been particularly pronounced the last four seasons. That 3-7 record in the final 20 so far actually looks like an improvement, scary thought. Here we are in the final week. Let's see what happens.

[zambonir]

Well, I guess we should worry about the final 10 game record more than the final 20 or September, but even after going 3-7 they remain in a good position. If the Brewers did run off a five-six game streak that would be trouble of course.

I understand where the narrative comes from, just don't know that it means anything. I mean, if it does, I guess it's all Larry Bowa and John Middleton's fault? The only two guys who have been there for all of it.

I do admit it would be kind of funny if it happened again given that Middleton said it was the reason he fired Kapler, and then Girardi was no better, and now we have a guy everyone wanted to lock down/make manager of the year who may yet fall short (through no fault of his own! But it's kind of striking how this team has more than occasionally resembled the spring team - poor defense, shaky bullpen, offense can't out hit all the flaws - when the opponent is good).