2025 Trade Deadline Discussion

[zambonir]

Well, you'd maybe want to find someone who was more confident about picking up the option. But mostly someone who needs relief help to make the playoffs. The return would presumably be a pending FA or someone with an option that's not a sure thing either [much like Seranthony and Hays last year].

I assume if you're willing to bet $8.5 million on Jordan Romano coming back from surgery you're willing to bet $500K more on Alvarado still being good next year, but of course, the first bet didn't win.

[flyers19rw]

If the right move came along for DD to jump on, I'd be for it but there's no reason to panic and do something stupid. From an interview that I heard on sunday with Middleton, I don't think that he wants to move any of the better prospects for fill ins that might not do any better than in house players.
As for the BP, Robertson, Kierkering, Strahm, Lazar, Banks, Robert, Johnson and Alvarado isn't the worst BP in the show right now. It'll be interesting to see who gets cut when Robertson joins the club . Probably Ross or Romano. Check out what other teams have as a pen. Granted in the POs, Alvarado will be out but he'll be replaced by one of the current starters or Abel or Painter. It isn't a rosy picture but there are worse.
If Crawford can come up and perform better than Kepler or Rojas, that would help. That might clean up the OF instead of making a trade.

[BaseballCat]

I am not sure Romano or Ross are going anywhere until they have an idea what Robertson gives them. Not sure but assume Lazar and Robert’s have options. Now if the later are lights out and the former continue to trend water, the choice may be clearer.

[zambonir]

Yeah they are not going to eat Romano's contract. Ross neither yet. They are both trade/change-of-scenery candidates just like Soto and Seranthony were last year but more likely Romano just drops to the 5th or 6th option as Alvarado did last year and Soto did the year before.

Robert or Johnson will be optioned for Robertson and Alvarado, assuming they subtract someone else at the same time they do another trade. If not someone will have to go when Alvarado comes back, but that's assuming no injuries. We're also assuming Painter is the extra P after roster expansion but we don't really know that. Could be Abel [if he's not traded]. Could be neither of them.

The guy they really need to get off the roster is Walker, if he's just gonna be a long reliever.

[andyb]

The guy they really need to get off the roster is Walker, if he's just gonna be a long reliever.

They probably need either Walker or Ross but not both. Nola coming back will be the key thing. That will force moves beyond the easy options. Guessing they will find a new home for Ross or Romano if they hit a severe numbers game. Lazar has earned his spot and clearly Robertson, Alvarado, and Nola will all claim spots in August if healthy. I suppose they could push Nola out towards September if they wanted to avoid a difficult pre-deadline decision.

Lots of week to week decisions in play at the moment.

[David_Criss]

Wondering if Johnson would have any trade value as a "prospect pitcher". I know not a center piece by any means, but this time last year Johnson was a prospect starter that the Phillies traded for.

[zambonir]

Lazar has earned his spot, but that doesn't mean he couldn't be optioned for a while if the pen really feels deep enough to do it at that time. Player who don't deserve to be optioned get optioned all the time because another player can't be. But they are a ways away from that.

And yeah, until Nola is back and makes a start or two you can't just punt Walker, though you still have Painter or Abel [if he's not traded] to be the #6 if it comes to it.

And sure, Johnson could be traded. Anyone could be. But he's paradoxically probably less valuable than he was last year unless another team saw him as a starter again. The Phillies felt like they saw something in him Baltimore didn't and someone would have to feel the same about them.

[andyb]

The Phillies felt like they saw something in him Baltimore didn't and someone would have to feel the same about them.

Not sure it was all that. The Phillies needed a prospect back and Johnson was already using his second option while only in AA. Johnson was more a high upside risk with a substantial chance of failure because he would run out of options at the end of this year. Johnson is less valuable because of that. He really could use one more option to establish himself in this bullpen role. If he is traded it might be the Phillies looking forward and not being convinced he will stick all next year.

[zambonir]

How did he burn two in the first place?

[zambonir]

Bowden:

The Phillies are looking to boost their outfield and bullpen. They could chase center fielders like Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox and Cedric Mullins of the Orioles, or they could go for a corner outfielder like Boston’s Jarren Duran or the Rangers’ Adolis García. The bullpen appears to be the more pressing need, and the Phillies took the first step toward addressing it Sunday by agreeing to sign veteran reliever David Robertson. What’s next? They could go big, trying to land Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians or Félix Bautista of the Orioles, or look to make a smaller deal for a late-inning reliever such as the Nationals’ Kyle Finnegan or the Pirates’ Dennis Santana. The Phillies could be close to being a World Series team, and filling those two needs might put them over the top.

MLB trade deadline intel: Where all 30 teams stand with 10 days to go

[andyb]

Typical Bowden paragraph. Frame the situation largely correct but then over-promote the World Series chances of any potential move they might make.

I do think the Phillies will add both an OF and a reliever. The bigger thing for them is whether they pay more for future control as their system depth in those areas is not great. And frankly if they make smaller deals I think they just try to pick up salary rather than deal major prospects.

[Austinfan]

Unless it's a 30 HR/.850 OPS OF or a lights out closer, I doubt anyone they add will move the needle, so no reason to overpay for incremental improvements.

If Castellanos, Marsh, Kepler, Stott, Bohm, JT can't step up down the stretch, no trade is going to save their collective butt.
Same with pitching, Nola, Luzardo get it together or they're screwed, in the pen, Kerkering, Strahm.

[BostonRoss]

Any of us could have written that Bowden piece.

[andyb]

Or the team they have now will make the playoffs pretty easily. 50-50 on the division. And the WS will require the stars get hot for a month.

They will probably overpay for some additions. I just hope more of the overpayment is with cash rather than prospects.

[Jazzhead]

They needn't burn any of their prospects. Bring up Crawford for the outfield. In addition to Robertson use Abel to upgrade the bullpen. Maybe also one of the college arms they just drafted. Remember too that Alverado will soon be available for the race for the division, and Ranger can be primed to be be a bullpen stud for the playoffs

[zambonir]

Multiple reporters have definitely said the Phillies are thought to be wide-open for business - everyone but Painter theoretically available - and looking to make some bigger swings. Including Lauber, who actually conducted the interview with Middleton where he downplayed the subject by pointing out none of the deadline deals after '08 got him another ring.

The default assumption is still bigger reliever plus modest bat.

They will probably overpay for some additions. I just hope more of the overpayment is with cash rather than prospects.

The problem is who is out there to overpay for just with cash? Not a ton of salary-dump types among the closers unless Iglesias or Chapman end up being on the market, and all the controllable guys are pretty reasonable. Same with the OFs except for Robert who shouldn't cost much anyway [not sure I want him].

Until two days ago Ranger was our clear #2 starter, not another bullpen guy and he's still the #3 at worst. He hasn't pitched out of the pen in three years. Luzardo is the guy to replace Alvarado, but they're still gonna need another relief arm to make up the core four [Strahm, Kerkering, Robertston. TBD. Neither Banks nor Lazar are taking that spot, and nobody wants it to be Romano].

[andyb]

Semi-seriously we could probably get our 2 relievers back from Baltimore for our 50th best prospect. I think I would still take Seranthony given that we have Alvarado in the Soto spot coming already.

[zambonir]

The question is how much do they like Roberston against LHP - historically he's good - and how much do they like Luzardo, since Jose's not gonna be around to get Freddie Freeman or Pete Alonso out in October.

Ricky B now wondering if Nola's gonna be tried in the bullpen given his short window to get stretched out. It's definitely an x factor as far as where he fits into the playoff rotation. He could be anywhere from the #2 or 3 to out of it.

I suspect they are going to get one of these controllable relievers but if it becomes Seranthony vs. one of the bigger-name rentals, sure, why not?

[dcsman]

I want O’Neil Cruz and either Bednar or Santana from Pittsburgh.

Is Pittsburgh likely to sell? What might it take (No Painter).

[zambonir]

This was the other story I was thinking of

The Phillies, according to major-league sources, have signaled they want to discuss trade ideas bigger than rental players. They would trade some top prospects. They reassigned their pro scouts to priority targets for the deadline a week earlier this year than last. But there’s been little movement across the league.

State of the Phillies as trade deadline nears: David Robertson, Justin Crawford,...

The Phillies continue to seek an outfield upgrade, although the bullpen remains their highest priority.

Dombrowski appeared to outline the club’s strategy: If the Phillies do not acquire an outfield bat in the next 10 days, Justin Crawford is a legitimate internal solution.