2025 Trade Deadline Discussion

zambonir 2025-07-15 13:10:06 UTC #141

And the Braves!

But there's still not much of a path for the Phillies to find a bat that doesn't involve moving Harper or Schwarber [including if they got a new 3B and kept Bohm]. Or, I guess just having a LF who'd be as bad as Schwarber.

Taylor Ward is probably the best fit out there. He never seemed like an upgrade over Marsh to me when Marsh was the LF [just a platoon] but he would be over Kepler, including against RHP, at least this season.

zambonir 2025-07-15 13:10:51 UTC #142

But he has a full NTC through '26 that already supersedes his 5-and-10 status. He can only block five teams as of '27, at which point he'll have the 5-and-10, so was that him giving a carve-out of the 5-and-10 or just an additional concession in case he somehow didn't get the 10 years by then?

zambonir 2025-07-15 13:43:29 UTC #143

One of the best trade deadline acquisitions ever. For all the good it did them.

This is the jewel of the trade deadline — the single player who lifts a team from a fringe to a legitimate contender. This is Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros, Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers, David Price to the Toronto Blue Jays, Max Scherzer to the Los Angeles Dodgers. With apologies to all of those aces, who were nails down the stretch for their new teams, nobody owned this dynamic quite like Sabathia with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008. Acquired in early July, Sabathia ended up making 17 starts, completing seven of them, and pitching to a 1.65 ERA. Milwaukee went 14-3 in those games; it made the postseason by a game.

Philsmania 2025-07-15 14:05:58 UTC #144

zambonir:

One of the best trade deadline acquisitions ever. For all the good it did them.

This is the jewel of the trade deadline — the single player who lifts a team from a fringe to a legitimate contender. This is Randy Johnson to the Houston Astros, Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers, David Price to the Toronto Blue Jays, Max Scherzer to the Los Angeles Dodgers. With apologies to all of those aces, who were nails down the stretch for their new teams, nobody owned this dynamic quite like Sabathia with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008. Acquired in early July, Sabathia ended up making 17 starts, completing seven of them, and pitching to a 1.65 ERA. Milwaukee went 14-3 in those games; it made the postseason by a game.

nytimes.com

Archetypes of the MLB trade deadline: The Ace, the Shutdown Closer and more

How do this year's versions of these seven trade deadline archetypes match up to previous deadlines?

Yes, BUT, not a single one of those guys ended up joining a team at the deadline that went on to win a WC that season. See also, Carlos Beltran who arguably played at an MVP level after the Astros picked him up at the Deadline in 2004.

zambonir 2025-07-15 14:27:19 UTC #145

Agreed. Deadline deals are for making the playoffs not winning championships. Sabathia did what the Brewers needed and then he lost his only playoff start to the Phillies in a series the Brewers otherwise had no chance in.

And Beltran didn't help the Giants in 2011 either though I think he was better individually than Pence was.

Also I like this line from that story, re trading for a closer:

This is when an otherwise smart front office gives up more than it knows it should to feel better about the final three to six outs of games in October.

allentown 2025-07-15 16:14:36 UTC #146

Not a deadline deal, actually an off-season deal, but I think the biggest boost to a WC ever by a reliever acquired in trade to elevate his new team to playoffs (and WC) that specific season, was Brad Lidge to the Phillies prior to the 2008 season. He had a perfect season as a closer and was the reason the weakest Phillies team of the 2008-2011 season made it to playoffs and WS. It truly was a career year for Lidge, who otherwise was average, or worse.

Philsmania 2025-07-15 18:00:20 UTC #147

For the Astros, Lidge was definitely a downgrade from Wagner (who is now headed into the HOF) and, at least in Houston, never got over that Pujols homer in the 2005 NLCS. He seemed to forget it in that perfect 2008 season--though, anecdotally, I recall many of his saves that season being of the high-wire variety and, indeed, he had a WHIP of 1.226 that season--but then was awful in 2009 (like Jordan Romano this year awful) and the first 2/3 of 2010 before snapping back into really good again over the last two months of that season but then pulled up lame in 2011 and returned as a setup man.

zambonir 2025-07-15 19:11:26 UTC #148

And the year before Lidge, the Phillies had a starter coming back from injury who was moved into the bullpen and the closer spot. I don't think Nola is quite like Brett Myers though.

Tom Gordon was also the dubious veteran closer type guy they were leaning on back then. He was good enough in '06 and in obvious decline in '07. That plus knowing Myers was going back to the rotation - which also didn't go that well but worked out in the end - prompted the trade for Lidge.

Philsmania 2025-07-16 16:57:08 UTC #149

IIRC, Myers had come around to like closing and wasn't happy at first to be sent back to the rotation. But, he would stay there the rest of his career, both in Philadelphia and in Houston (was the Astros' Opening Day starter against the Phillies in 2011). [correction--after Houston, he went back to relief in 2012].

zambonir 2025-07-16 17:09:39 UTC #150

On the whole he probably would have been a better reliever for us. But considering everything that happened prior to 2007 [domestic abuse charge, injury, likely related issue w/ alcohol] and during that '08 season he certainly contribute to the WS. Did not realize he pitched so well for the Astros in 2010. That was the beginning of the end both for him and Ed Wade [to the Phillies' benefit via both Oswalt and Pence, regardless of how it worked out].

Philsmania 2025-07-17 13:45:04 UTC #151

Myers 2010 season jumped out at me as well. His best ML season. He even got CYA votes. Wade enjoyed a successful first season in Houston with the Astros winning 86 games. The Lidge trade really seemed to work out well for both teams. Bourn became a good player and WARwise was the Astros' best player from 2008-10 while Geary was good for a season in '08. After that, Wade doubled down in veterans with diminishing success in 2009 and 2010 before it all crashed and burned in 2011 leading into the tanking years under Luhnow. Not surprisingly, a lot of ex-Phils cycled through Houston during Wade's years there--Bourn, Geary, Myers, Wolf, Michaels, Happ and even Tito's bench coach Brad Mills as manager)..

zambonir 2025-07-17 14:08:21 UTC #152

After investing a combined $107 million in free-agent relievers Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates, the Dodgers are expected to pursue bullpen help, according to sources briefed on the team’s plans.

Scott has allowed 8 homers and has a 4.0 ERA. Treinen has been hurt. Two guys coming back from surgery eventually, one guy out for the year from having surgery. For all the struggles the Phillies have had, health hasn't been one of them [just PEDs].

Rosenthal also says O's are unlikely to trade Bautista.

zambonir 2025-07-18 20:48:57 UTC #153

Posted by andy in minor league thread but Matt also has a few thoughts on the trade deadline and the major league team.

https://www.reddit.com/r/phillies/comments/1m1d7ju/i_am_matt_winkelman_i_write_about_phillies/

Two broader comments he made:

Offense across the league is down and when you look for improvements for the Phillies you don't really find many on the market and instead find they are an above average offensive team.

Ranger vs Schwarber. If you could extend only one; which one?

Schwarber. I think Schwarber is going to age gracefully and is just one of the best hitters in the sport. I love Ranger, but they have starting pitching that can replace him, they do not have hitters like Kyle Schwarber coming.