2025 Trade Deadline Discussion

[zambonir]

I'm just not sure it's that important when it's a reliever. Of course you need young bullpen arms, but it's neither difficult nor expensive to get a few of them in trade or free agency, and even these days many of the great ones are still failed prospects or failed starters. There are just a lot more Jeff Hoffmans than young Craig Kimbrels in the world.

Whereas, as we can see with this team, if you can't produce a single consistent All-Star caliber position player, you end up having to buy one for $20 or $30 millon. And it's additionally problematic that the three competent young affordable starters [and one great bench guy] they have developed or acquired still don't look like guys you'd want to keep once they hit FA.

As much as we can point to three or four relief innings over the last three post-seasons that "cost" the Phillies a playoff series I think the real remedy to that is still better hitting and starting pitching that makes the bullpen less important. Even if they had another Kerkering or Seranthony ready to go and acquired another proven closer type at the deadline, any or all of them could still blow it.

The problem with this team of course is that the hitting doesn't look capable of handing the bullpen enough low-stress innings.

[allentown]

The problem with this team of course is that the hitting doesn't look capable of handing the bullpen enough low-stress innings.basi

Or capable of scoring a reasonable number of runs against the sort of good pitching with a plan which we will face in the playoffs. The Houston series is particularly instructive. The Phillies started the season well, culminating in a 9-game winning streak which ended on 24 May. Since then, they have been basically a .500 team with 20 wins against 22 losses. That version of the Phillies isn't a team which will advance in the playoffs. It isn't a team for which our better prospects should be traded for reliever help. They have two weeks to regain their former mojo and turn things around, but it is close to two months since this has been a good team. Much of that time coincides with the Harper injury. The injury to Nola also coincides. We are strong in SP. Rather than rely on the current BP, or try overly hard to strengthen it, the Phillies should plan to use tandem starters in the playoffs, with the second guy in the tandem knowing he'll come into the game in inning 5 or 6. We will need 3 SP for most of the playoffs. With Painter, we have 7. Tandem starters can work just fine, with a couple of relievers, including Kerkering, to pitch an inning when the first pitcher in the tandem needs to be removed prior to the planned 5 or 6 IP.

[zambonir]

Well, I haven't seen any indication that they intend to trade our better prospects for reliever help that's only for this season. If it's rental it won't be a high price and if it's not, it's for next year too.

But they now have Harper, and they should have Nola, and once you get into the playoffs it can still be pretty random. Arizona and the Mets were not elite pitching teams [AZ had good ones but we lit them up in the first few games], though they did game plan us in a way that these guys still seem to struggle with.

The 2022 team looked awful in September. The 2024 team played .500 ball the entire second half last year. Not sure either thing correlated with how the playoffs went. The 2022 team could have and probably should have lost to St. Louis of course, if not for one reliever melting down for the Cardinals in Game 1. But we've seen this team play well against nearly all the other playoff teams in any given series. They don't play as well on the road but what else is new?

It doesn't seem like Dombrowski will go nuts this deadline but I have no problem if he does.

They are not going to call it a tandem but that is already how Thomson usually manages in the playoffs. The leash gets short, and we know at least two starters are never going to make traditional starts. Scripting when the likes of Luzardo or Walker enters might work, might not. They script everything to some extent anyway, and then adjust.

[allentown]

I wasn't counting Walker. The three starters, whom I'd like to see as the starting, 5-6 innings of the tandem are Walker, Sanchez, and Nola. Ranger, Luzardo, and Painter. That leaves 7 relievers to fill in if a LHP/RHP switch is needed for a given batter/situation or one of the tandem pitchers needs to be replaced quickly. They also can do a reliever game, if needed, with Walker starting with 3-4 IP.

[zambonir]

Obviously you meant Wheeler in that second sentence.

Of course this is never going to happen. Right now Wheeler, Sanchez and Ranger are probably the three starters, with Nola as the 4th when needed, with the only x factor being Nola's health/performance and status as our former ace.

It would be sensible to manage Luzardo and Painter's usage in a more focused and routine way [if Painter is used at all] but I think it's more likely that Luzardo is just a normal reliever, Ranger will also end up being in a flex role, and if it comes down to needing last outs in clinching games, anyone's available. The model for all of this, as has been covered by the beat writers, is Dombrowski's Red Sox team. And we've seen super-short outings from Ranger and Sanchez in the past, while Nola probably shouldn't see anyone a third time these days either.

But first they will be trading for a reliever. Luzardo ultimately replaces Alvarado, unless Ranger does [but not like he's pitching now]..

It would be nice if Abel factored in as an October relief arm too, if he's still wearing the uniform.

[phillychuck]

It would be nice if Abel factored in as an October relief arm too, if he's still wearing the uniform

Wouldn’t want him pitching in the buff...

[zambonir]

Bet the Bananas haven't thought of that.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

With no potential for merchandise sales, it’ll never go over in MLB.

[VoteForKalas]

Bet the Bananas haven't thought of that.

Where do you think the Bananas name came from?

[schillingfan]

It would be nice if Abel factored in as an October relief arm too, if he's still wearing the uniform

Wouldn’t want him pitching in the buff...

Speak for yourself. I’m old, but not dead yet!

[phillychuck]

Abel looks like he’s 14; might not be that interesting...

[andyb]

Buxton just got a little more expensive.

Twins’ Byron Buxton homers in final at-bat to complete cycle on bobblehead day

[EDmuch]

When you look at how profoundly mediocre our lineup has become without a "superstar" version of Harper, it is rather distressing. JT has clearly regressed from 2-3 years ago. Stott has failed to improve/actually regressed from 2-3 years ago. Bohm has not improved in any significant manner. Two outfield spots remained offensive black holes. It is amazing we are competing for first place. But as a result, I do not see how we can trade any of our four high level position prospects since they offer hope to fill in at least four spots in our lineup: Escobar (2b); Miller (3b/ss); Tait (catcher); Crawford (OF). Thus, whatever we do to obtain relief help should not include those four young players under any circumstances. That means Abel, Walker and Cabrera would be the main trading chips

[zambonir]

This has pretty much been Dombrowski's MO every year, some might argue to the detriment of present-day success, though it's also true deadline adds aren't necessarily the thing that puts you over the top anyway. I think it's pretty unlikely he sells the farm, especially when there's not much to actually buy.

If you start talking about a Buxton or Steven Kwan or Jarren Duran, and/or a controllable high-end reliever [or both] then everyone is one the table. But the more likely scenario is probably Abel for one reliever [still not a rental] or less than that for a rental reliever. And a RH bench bat.

Maybe this is the year they finally get Luis Robert. Yeah, he stinks and he's overpaid but that means he shouldn't be worth barely anything, much like Taijuan Walker [who doesn't even stink]. He would still give the OF more flexibility, and maybe they could fix him or he'd just get hot on a new team [and a less miserable team].

Of course Crawford might just be the next Rojas or Marsh and Miller the next Bohm or Stott. But you gotta find out. When they traded O'Hoppe he was very plainly blocked. None of these guys are, alas.

[BostonRoss]

The Red Sox now have two fewer wins than the Phillies. I think we can stop thinking Jarren Duran is a possible acquisition.

[xogfog]

That doesn't mean they don't have a log jam of outfielders. They have Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony, not to mention Refsnyder. The can't give all 5 adequate playing time. Duran is the obvious piece to move and get something in return.

[BostonRoss]

But if they’re playing for this season, they would want someone in return who can help now. Who would that be from the Phillies?

[zambonir]

Always a possibility of a three-team deal. But otherwise the only answer is Luzardo right? Don't really see it happening but think subtracting a pitcher is the only way to really get a good position player, including in the off-season [perhaps while still keeping Ranger].

And he's got the no-trade clause through '26. Cot's says he can block to five teams in '27 and '28 but won't he have 5-and-10 by then anyway? Or is such a clause the player agreeing to supersede that?

Twins' Byron Buxton says All-Star Game in Georgia is great, but Minnesota is his...

[VoteForKalas]

Red Sox are 3 out in the division and are 1 up in the second wild card spot.

They have a tough schedule leading up to the deadline: CHC (road), PHL (road), LAD (home) and MN (road).

They will probably be able to hang on through that stretch, but who knows? Either way, I see CLE, BALT and AZ as more likely sellers at the deadline.

[andyb]

Cot's says he can block to five teams in '27 and '28 but won't he have 5-and-10 by then anyway?

Fangraphs Roster Resource has his service time as 8.160 prior to 2025. So he will hit 10/5 rights if he stays in MN early next year. He might be difficult to trade at next year's deadline for MN. The block to 5 teams I guess becomes relevant only if he is traded and really 5 is a low number.