2025 Trade Deadline Discussion

[Philsmania]

My understanding is the current cost of Jax is at least two of Miller, Tait, Crawford, Escobar, and Abel and not 2 of the bottom guys of that list.

One has to be a true believer in FIP to value Jax that highly. This season is the worst ERA, WHIP, and H/9 during his years as a reliever. I think the dropoff is real, because his LD% is much higher than in prior years. Hard hit % also highest of his career. Somethings wrong. I wouldn't pay for an extra year of control.

Not a fan of FIP since it only measures one part of the game (TTTO). The way I look at it, good pitching induces bad contact which leads to outs as well so, for that reason FIP is not entirely fair. Plus, if you give up a bunch of singles and doubles, you're still getting hit. Coming out of 2018, FIP was supposed to be Velasquez's, Pivetta's and Eflin's calling cards.

[zambonir]

It's two extra years of control. Not that that helps if you think he's got issues beyond just normal year-to-year reliever stuff. I reckon I wouldn't give up more than one Top 5 prospect for any reliever, controlled or not.

[zambonir]

I dunno, FIP likes pitchers who miss bats and the Phillies are missing that from the pen. And if you strike out guys and don't walk them you can give up the odd home run. {Until the late innings of playoff clincher, d'oh!]

Jax, 30, has a more pedestrian 4.09 ERA due largely to some early home runs but arguably has even more overpowering arrows in his quiver. He doesn’t sit 100 mph like his teammate but averages better than 97 mph and misses more bats. The former third-round pick has set down 36.4% of his opponents on strikes this season and walked only 6.4% of the batters he’s faced. Jax boasts a deep arsenal of six pitches but relies first and foremost on a sweeper and changeup that miss bats at elite levels. Among the 524 big league pitchers with even 10 innings pitched this season, Jax ranks fifth with a 19.4% swinging-strike rate, trailing only Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Mason Miller and Fernando Cruz.

Minnesota has been seeking “at least two top-100-caliber prospects” to part with either Duran or Jax, per Passan.

The Asking Price For Twins' Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax

[phillychuck]

You should immediately be fired as a GM if you trade two top prospects for anything less than a Mariano Rivera quality reliever.

[zambonir]

Who'd Ed give up for Wendell and Cook again. And does a Mariano quality reliever even exist? What did Yankees give up for Devon Williams?

But hey, it never hurts to ask. At some point you either take less or you don't want to do the deal, which might also be fair. Phillies gave up their 7 and 12 [MLB] for Estevez and Twins probably have three more chances to settle for that [maybe even get more in the off-season].

For the Phillies it is probably Abel plus another prospect for a controllable reliever or something more like the Estevez package for a rental.

[phillychuck]

Stand pat. The players available stink, and our prospects, while not “sure things”, are really important going forward so that we have at least a little salary control.

I think you’re just as likely to get two good months from Romano or Ross.

[bkox]

Left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi are headed back to the Arizona Diamondbacks from the Seattle Mariners for first baseman Josh Naylor, sources tell ESPN. That's the full trade.

And so begins deadline season. Buckle up.

— Jeff Passan ( @JeffPassan ) July 25, 2025

13th and 16th ranked prospects

[zambonir]

I don't know that they stink, but you are not wrong. The only thing that is guaranteed is that if Romano [or Robertson] is on the mound blowing a playoff lead in the 6th inning of a post-season game people will go absolutely nuts, whereas if it's a trade deadline guy it will just be, "oh well, that didn't work out."

But they may also still prefer to trade for a controllable reliever not just for the deadline but going forward. Trading a few prospects might still be better than signing a reliever to a more expensive three-year deal or repeating a Kimbrel or Romano type deal where you save $ and years. At that point you are saying the prospects are worth less than the cash, which would be true [the salary control is worthless if they don't work out].

What Robertson lets you do is go big or go small, and probably no reason to go small unless someone is taking Romano or Ross's salary off your hands as with the trades last year.

[phillychuck]

I would not trade Painter, Abel, Crawford, Tait, Escobar, or Nori (based mostly on his recent play). I’d consider the rest in the right deal, but it would have to be for a consistent, controllable arm or bat. Miller would require a significant return. I doubt I’d find a deal I’d like.

[zambonir]

I'd still trade Abel for a controllable top reliever. That's still a sell-high move. Maybe a little less easy to do than it was a month ago when it just seemed obvious that the Phillies already had six major league starters for next year even without Ranger and Abel. Now you have to wonder about Luzardo, the pre-injury hype that said Painter would immediately slot in as a #2 or #3 is long-gone, and Nola's an unknown [though hopefully, he not only is healthy but is a better pitcher next year having thrown less this year].

I'd do any of the rest besides Painter for the right deal but it's hard to see what that deal would actually be. I would have done the Naylor deal which probably doesn't cost any of the names you mention if the Phillies had a path for that. Suarez, as a rental, would be a tougher thing and a bidding war the Phillies probably can't win. To trade Crawford or Miller really requires a player that would take their spot for the next 2-3 years, or a clear FA target for even longer than that this off-season.

[allentown]

Who'd Ed give up for Wendell and Cook again

Cook was a plus SP for us until an umpire, I think Cowboy Joe, bodyslammed him to the turf, while breaking up a benches clearing fight. In general, the Philles have given up too many draft picks and minor league talent to acquire relievers.

[allentown]

Well, Robertson was essentially a trade-deadline deal, although just for a pile of money as a FA.

[zambonir]

I don't really recall whether they were good or bad, just that it was a trade deadline which did not get the Phillies into the postseason. As opposed to the years where they simply didn't get us a championship [aside from Blanton in '08 of course].

Robertson definitely gives them some cushion. Question is does Luzardo or Suarez? If they don't make a big move, still nothing wrong with bringing in someone who is credibly the 5th or 6th guy whether they replace Ross or merely push him [and Romano] to lower-leverage.

Walker also has to go back to the pen but hard to see him pitching out of there in a significant role in October. He should be like Lorenzen in '23 eating a few innings in a loss, or pure mop-up long relief. But Rob might not see it that way once he switches back.

[VoteForKalas]

In 2001 when Wendell was traded to us from the Mets, he was horrific and then injured all of 2002. When he returned in 2003, he was better, but at age 36 was not going to have much of a future. He played one more season for the Rockies in 2004 and was done.

Cook only played for us after the trade in 2001 and he was almost as bad as Wendell. He also played one more season in the ML and was done. I had forgotten he pitched for us in 1989 and 1990 as well.

[bigegypt0417]

I'd still trade Abel for a controllable top reliever. That's still a sell-high move.

I would definitely think about a move like this if they are younger and not a rental or a guy who is iffy from the standpoint of regression.

[zambonir]

Honestly I'd forgotten it was that long ago too. Wade also traded for two relievers [as well as Lidle] in '04. But by then he also wasn't willing to give up on the bigger prospects at least.

[Philsmania]

Who'd Ed give up for Wendell and Cook again.

Bruce Chen and Adam Walker. For all his mediocrity (lifetime 4.62 ERA), Chen had a 17 year ML career. Yet, in those 17 years, he never pitched in a Postseason game. Walker never made it to The Show and was out of baseball after 2003.

[Philsmania]

Who'd Ed give up for Wendell and Cook again

Cook was a plus SP for us until an umpire, I think Cowboy Joe, bodyslammed him to the turf, while breaking up a benches clearing fight. In general, the Philles have given up too many draft picks and minor league talent to acquire relievers.

Cook and Hayes were seen as the keys to that Bedrosian deal and as two young guys whom the Phillies would supposedly build around with Mulholland being a veteran (but not too veteran) arm to occupy a spot in the rotation during the rebuild years. Instead, Mulholland ended up being the best and most consequential part of that trade for the Phillies. In the end, both Bedrosian and Mulholland helped their new teams to NL pennants, albeit four years apart.

[Dirk41]

Man, Bruce Chen may have been the nicest Phillie of all time

[Philsmania]

Man, Bruce Chen may have been the nicest Phillie of all time

I was figuring that he came from Taiwan but his BR page says he was born and raised in Panama. Grandparents came from Taiwan making him Chinese-Panamanian and eligible to play for China in the WBC.