2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[Austinfan]

When they put him on waivers rather than put him on the roster.
No one will claim him so he'll finish the season in AAA.

They'll probably give him 3-4 rehab starts, but when the alternative is Allard . . .
Once Ranger is healthy, the alternative becomes Phillips, a tougher hurdle.

[zambonir]

That would be another possible consequence of this slump, if it continues through the road trip. They won't be able to as easily live with being below .500 (or worse) in his starts, let alone view them as games they don't need to win in September. But we'll see. The bar is still pretty low if he's the 6th starter and Phillips actually continues to pitch well, or even if he's the 5th starter but is replacing Allard or Mercado. They'll be happy if he eats up five or six starts that helps lighten the load on the other guys (including Ranger).

Supposedly his velocity was a little better, but this whole project of trying to remake both his strength and his splitter is a risky game.

He's a long way from waivers IMO but if Phillips continues to perform and Turnbull is ready to come back as a reliever, could certainly happen. Even if Walker's pretty good he's still probably your third choice as a long reliever in October, just like last year.

[RTaylor]

I'm excited to see Phillips pitch tonight. I live across the street from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, so it's a rare treat to see the Phils here. It's a miserable flight to Seattle, but I hope the team will snap out of its funk here.

[andyb]

Ranger is still supposed to pitch in the Arizona series starting Thursday. He has not been shut down throwing at all which is a good sign.

So one more Allard start. Phillips has been good so far, though a little smoke and mirrors and hard to know how long it will last. We will likely need Walker and Turnbull sooner than later.

Gelb in his mailbag today on Walker:
He was decent in a minor-league rehab outing this week at Double-A Reading. A scout in attendance clocked Walker’s fastball between 90-92 mph with a few 93s. Not bad for his first time facing hitters in about six weeks. Walker’s cutter played well in the rehab start but the splitter was still inconsistent, in this scout’s evaluation. That is a concern. Walker probably has one more minor-league start, then he could be back in the Phillies’ rotation. Maybe it’s sooner depending on how Kolby Allard does this weekend in Seattle. The Phillies could use a halfway decent version of Walker now and into September. They have innings to cover.

[bkeich]

When they put him on waivers rather than put him on the roster.
No one will claim him so he'll finish the season in AAA.

They'll probably give him 3-4 rehab starts, but when the alternative is Allard . . .
Once Ranger is healthy, the alternative becomes Phillips, a tougher hurdle.

You are right that Walker would pass through waivers without a claim, but I think you are wrong that he would accept the demotion. He would simply go to FA.

Since it is after the trade deadline and now August some team not in contention would offer him a ML league spot because they are going to need innings eaters to rest their prospects soon or fill in for guys they just traded away. Some team would give him 8-10 starts to see if they get lucky with a redemption.

Not that losing him would be a problem.

[andyb]

The Phillies have also implied they are likely to go to a 6-man rotation for a few turns in August and September. There is every indication that they'll just insert Walker there along with Phillips as long as his rehab continues to impress. They have no intention of waiving him or trying to send him to the minors. There is also a strong likelihood that if healthy he is better than Phillips.

[bkeich]

The Phillies have also implied they are likely to go to a 6-man rotation for a few turns in August and September. There is every indication that they'll just insert Walker there along with Phillips as long as his rehab continues to impress. They have no intention of waiving him or trying to send him to the minors. There is also a strong likelihood that if healthy he is better than Phillips.

Who is his rehab impressing? Our opponents?

[andyb]

Who is his rehab impressing? Our opponents?

Gelb just said the Phillies' scouts were impressed (with the stuff if not the results). Walker's stuff does move, so if he can command it he can probably survive at 91-92. It is not as if Nola throws much harder and Walker does have a track record of being....average. It is not a great profile of course, but opinions here seem colored by his contract level and not the results where he was worth his contract last year.

[Austinfan]

The problem is he's lost command of his splitter, which is his out pitch.
He doesn't throw hard enough to get away with just a FB/slider combo.

[andyb]

And that is why he is in minor league rehab to get that command back. He has done so in the past. Why is it so hard to think he can't do it in the future? Phillips has done great in a small sample, but he barely had a 5.00 ERA in AAA and also had a much higher walk rate pretty much every recent minor league season. He'll get a chance to stay in the rotation, but there is a good chance Walker is also better than he is. Turnbull too.

[Austinfan]

Sometimes a pitcher loses a pitch and never gets it back. Which is why his rehab stint should be as long as possible.

Phillips is in his second season after TJ surgery, so it's not surprising he hasn't look good over much of that period.
Watching him, he does need to improve his changeup to stick, everything else is solid, but you need a pitch to use against LH hitters.

[andyb]

Phillips had a higher walk rate in AAA this year than Walker had in the majors. Walker needs to stop giving up home runs. It is his command really and not his stuff and all that is fixable. Phillips is most likely a AAAA starter. That is a good result for him. Walker can be more than that. You just have this bias against him because of his contract.

[Austinfan]

When Walker is good, he's very good, but when he's bad, he's awful.
He's good when his FB hits 95 and his splitter is diving away from LH but close enough to the K-zone to engender swings and misses.

[andyb]

Walker's velocity is down this year. We actually don't have too much evidence in the past of him scuffling with lower velocity. In 2020 his velocity was also down a bit and he was just fine. It is worse this year because of injury, but we actually don't have much evidence that he can't win throwing 92. We all hope he'll get back to a more normal 93-94, but veterans pitchers often do OK losing a mile or two like Nola.

The Phillies are giving him every chance to get back in the rotation. They are not going to give it to him, but there is logic in thinking that a healthy Walker is their best 5th starter with the current roster without Turnbull. Just as there was logic early in the year that he might be better than Turnbull too. The Phillies are not dumb. They are trying to maximize the roster they have. And that probably means Walker will go back into the rotation if healthy.

[VoteForKalas]

I think Walker was one of DD mistakes, but he is not awful.

However, from a roster spot value perspective, if you get roughly equivalent performance from Phillips, then Walker with his sizeable salary is worth hanging onto only for as long as it takes to find a decent trade offer.

That is, after all,the main role of the farm - provide talented players at bargain basement cost over multiple years for the ML team. If the farm cannot do that, then the Phillies have a much larger problem, but that still does not mean we continue to sign Walker types and expect miracles.

[andyb]

Walker was worth it last year. Obviously not this year. Phillips was also a good signing by the Phillies as a TJ recovery candidate, but I think they just see him as depth at the moment. They are going to use him as long as he is pitching well (and the 6-man rotation means a reliever like Marte probably goes down when Walker is ready if we are not at September 1 yet), but they probably don't expect him to keep pitching as well as he is.

The Phillies probably give Walker more chances because of the contract, but that is also because they have seen a much better pitcher when he is healthy. No reason at his age that he can't get back to 90% of that old pitcher.

[BostonRoss]

I think that if Walker doesn't have any value to the Phillies, he won't have any trade value. Maybe he could be traded if the Phillies picked up his remaining salary, but even then I don't think any good players would be coming back. I don't see any point in the Phillies paying him to pitch for someone else. (Of course, there won't be any trades until the off-season anyway.)

I think there are three possible outcomes for Walker this season:

1. He comes back enough to be a contributor, even if his value is below what he has done in the past.

2. He can't get back to something of value this year, and he has a mop up role and maybe is left off the playoff roster.

3. He can't stay healthy and is shut down.

Obviously hoping for #1.

[andyb]

Even if he got back to being a good 5th starter he still might be left off the playoff roster for an extra reliever like Marte. Turnbull also did well in relief this year so he'd be a better fit for the playoff roster too. He probably should have been left off last year when Thomson basically decided to go with Sanchez as the 4th starter. Teams just don't need 5 starters in the playoffs.

[RolenRules]

"In 2020 his velocity was also down a bit and he was just fine."

Well, this year his velocity is down more than 2 mph from 2020. And Walkers rehab starts haven't seen an uptick.

I hope for the best but this might be a lost year for Walker.

In the past you have criticized AF for favoring crafty pitchers who can barely break 90 but have good stuff. Now that he is touting someone who throws harder and with decent stuff, you are again denigrating his opinion.

[bkox]

Phillies will open with Orion Kerkering on Saturday night. Kolby Allard will pitch behind him.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) August 3, 2024