2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[Austinfan]

The struggles by Abel has probably thrown a monkey wrench in their plans, probably figured he'd be in line as a call-up after the All Star break and could be sheltered as the 5th starter if needed.

On the other hand, the emergence of Phillips was totally unexpected, you gamble on these guys coming off injury and maybe tweak them into serviceable long relievers, you don't expect them to give you a complete game shutout against a top team when you're missing 3 starting pitchers and don't want to overwork your bullpen.

If Phillips is for real, Abel turns his season around and Painter is 100% next year, they're loaded for bear.
If Walker can come back and finish strong, he'd be moveable with only 2 seasons left on his deal.

[allentown]

A huge monkey wrench: not only was he expected to be first young starter up to majors after Painter's injury, but it calls their pitcher development strategy into question, because while trying to improve him by giving him a changed delivery and also taking away his put-away pitches to speed development of FB with new motion, they actually broke him and haven't been able to fix him. I wonder if his problem isn't insufficient back and hip flexibility which could be addressed by training staff. That's one possible cause of not being able to keep his FB low in the zone or to achieve superior FB velocity.

[Austinfan]

I don't know if they broke him, he just had a solid start and has regained his velocity.

It may well be they told him not to worry about stats, just keep doing what we've showed you and be patient, eventually it will pay off.

It'll be interesting to see how he finishes the season.

[bkox]

Our season is saved. Dylan Covey started a rehab assignment today

[zambonir]

What this really says is they also value versatility, Wilson, Clemens and Kennedy are all originally IFs who now also play the OF if need be. They're neither looking for someone to play a lot or someone who is just a pure OF bench bat (assuming they really do stand pat).

It'd be nice to get a look at Stevenson, if not Kennedy. 40-man spaces aren't limitless though, especially with the pitching crunch (i.e. they may yet need Covey back on it too rather than DFAing him).

Why the Phillies chose Carlos Estévez over others and other takeaways from...

The Phillies are likely done adding to their bench. They have told teams they feel comfortable with their group of hitters — and that includes the next wave at Triple A. The 26th man, for now, is Weston Wilson. But the Phillies could cycle through different candidates over the next two months as they prepare for October.

Kody Clemens has continued to hit for power since a demotion to Lehigh Valley earlier this month. If the Phillies want a lefty bat on the bench, Clemens is their choice. He has seen time in the infield and outfield while in the minors.

Another one to monitor: Buddy Kennedy came to the Phillies in a cash deal with the Tigers back in June. The righty has batted .365/.471/.650 in 170 plate appearances with the IronPigs. Kennedy started a game in left field last week. He’s played all around the infield.

The Phillies may treat their postseason 26th man much like they did two Octobers ago. They alternated between Nick Maton (a lefty hitter) and Dalton Guthrie (a righty hitter) as the last man on the bench from series to series in 2022 depending on the opponent’s bullpen situation. If an opponent has fewer lefty relievers, maybe Clemens is on the roster.

[EastFallowfield]

The Phillies have lost four straight series…Oakland, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Cleveland.

They’ve increased their lead in the NL East by a game over those 16 days.

(Luke Arcaini on x)

[VoteForKalas]

Better lucky than good I guess.

[zambonir]

So, the Phillies have course-corrected. They are on pace for 99 wins. They have lost nine of their past 13 games. They are 8-12 in their past 20. They are 21-22 in their past 43 — ever since they flew across the Atlantic Ocean to play in London.

“Well,” Nick Castellanos said, “every team goes through ups and downs in the course of the season.”

But Castellanos has been thinking about it for a few weeks. The Phillies swept the second-best team in the league, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and that’s right when their skid commenced.

“I don’t know,” he said. “I feel like the energy in the clubhouse has been different ever since the Dodgers series.

(snip)

The stars have to show. It’s what this whole thing is built upon. No trade can change that. Harper is hitting .143 with a .544 OPS since the All-Star break. Trea Turner, who struck out on three pitches to end the game, is hitting .167 with a .549 OPS since the All-Star break. He grounded into one double play Monday night and should have hit into another if not for a bobble at second base. J.T. Realmuto is hitting .143 with a .345 OPS since being activated from the injured list.

With another lopsided loss, the Phillies have encountered some summer adversity

[Aquapong]

Well Gerritt Cole is scratched from our game tonight, so that’s a plus. Some kid is making his debut, so we’ll probably make him look like an ace.

[Austinfan]

It's a long season, if they're gonna slump, now is the time to do so.
Want to get hot in August and September and ride "Big Mo" into the playoffs.

[zambonir]

just like in 2022

what they want to do is not lose the top seed, or force themselves to play meaningful games in September at all.

[Philsmania]

just like in 2022

what they want to do is not lose the top seed, or force themselves to play meaningful games in September at all.

Some suggest not playing meaningful games in September of 2011 hurt us, especially in contrast with the Cardinals who were playing for their lives through Game 162.

[zambonir]

yup that definitely crossed my mind too. The 2007 Rockies were credited with that too (even though they had to play an equally hot Phillies team first).

But I doubt there is much too it, certainly by Games 4 and 5 it had nothing to do with it (and especially in Game 5 Carpenter was just a little bit better than Roy, neither offense was good).

[LoneStarPhan]

The Phillies were muddling through July and were 10-10 after the win last Saturday. Four loses since gives them a 10-14 month. They won two series (in first three in July) and lost six. They swept the Dodgers but ended the month being swept by the Yankees, a team that had struggled even more in July than the Phillies.

Good news is that they are still in first place in the NL East and have the best record in the NL and second best in MLB. Cleveland now is the top team.

Bad news is they are just not playing well. In stead of finding a way to win, they seem to find a way to lose. They seem to lack the spark they had in abundance earlier in the season.

Of course, this can change and hopefully it will as the calendar turns to August. The three series on the road are a rough way to begin the month, but winning some series on the road would sure be welcome.

Harper just had his worst ever series in his major league career. Turner didn’t have a hit in this Yankee series until his final at bat. They need both to get on a hot streak and they have to regain some momentum.

Frankly, most of us would have been very happy at the start of the season with a 65-43 record at the end of July. Get back to winning most series and playing well and we will soon forget about July. What happens in October is what will be remembered.

[Philsmania]

The Phillies are playing all good teams now. Their schedule was really frontloaded with bad teams in April and May. Our record against >.500 teams is now only 30-25. We play mostly good teams from here on out. Of course, to be a good team, you got to beat other good teams. Prior to the ASB, the breakdown was 56 games against <.500 teams and only 40 games against >.500 teams--though in fairness to the Phillies, they were 26-14 in those games (.650 winning percentage).

I don't have the time to do such research now but I wonder if in 2022 and 2023, the Phillies had meatgrinder schedules the first couple of months before turning it on against weaker opponents in the later months.

If the Phillies started out 4-11 (record since the Oakland series) or 20-23 (record going back to game 2 in London), we would be wondering if we have a long season ahead or who we might be able to sell at the deadline. Actually, in 2007, they started out 4-11. That season ended well.

We have a combined thirteen games left against the Marlins and Nationals. They are the only currently losing teams left on our schedule. Our other forty-one games are against teams with winning records. Since the break, they've played all winning teams and won only 25% of their games. If the Phillies continue at that pace against winning teams, they'll only win about ten or eleven of those games. Even if they go 10-3 in those thirteen games against the Marlins and Nationals, they would still only be an 85-86 win team. If they got help, that might be good enough for the third wild card. Otherwise, however, the Phillies have to start beating good teams or else the "first half fraud" label might have merit.

Note: I just realized the Cubs are under .500 and we have three against them. So our remaining schedule is 16 games against currently losing teams and 38 against currently winning teams.

[allentown]

I thought the Phillies were built to be a 90-win team this year, not a 100+ win team. Although the current level of play is frustrating, I fully expect them to meet my 90-win projection, which should get them into the playoffs. They could easily achieve mid-90s in wins. For that to happen, they need to snap back to life. Yes, we've been playing the good teams lately, but the Phillies team attitude seems off.

[zambonir]

I don't have the time to do such research now but I wonder if in 2022 and 2023, the Phillies had meatgrinder schedules the first couple of months before turning it on against weaker opponents in the later months.

It almost definitely was, came up often during the low points just as it came up this year during the high points. Some may have even made the case that Joe didn't deserve to be fired and that things would turn around just from the schedule and players getting out of their slumps.

It also came up often that the a hot start is not necessarily the be-all and end-all if you don't have a hot finish. Fortunately this team's start was so hot, that, like Atown says, they can't really sink to an actual bad place (even if the division slipping away would be disappointing, and they have also now lost home field in a potential WS).

[Austinfan]

Teams slump. Harper and Turner are pressing, but Stott and Bohm look like they're breaking out of their slumps.
The pitching staff got jumbled by injury, but also the top guys are struggling with command and some bad luck.
The bullpen suddenly is giving up big innings.

They weren't a 110 win team, they're not a .500 team, two months left, I expect them to settle into "normal" play which is probably a 95 win team.

[Philsmania]

A red flag within the division is that both the Braves and Mets have relatively soft schedules from here on out. Both teams have ample games against the likes of the Rockies and White Sox.

However, one could say playing tough teams down the stretch might better prepare a team for October than kicking around tomato cans.

[bkeich]

Walkers start in AA. 2 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 4 hits and only 1 K. Umm, I know stats for rehab starts shouldn’t matter, but at what point do we accept that he is not any help whatsoever?