2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[VoteForKalas]

Saw some eye opening stats on Nola from MLBN:

From the start of the 2018 season in MLB, Nola ranks:

1st in starts - 202
3rd in wins - 78
1st in IP - 1,231.2
2nd in strike outs - 1,362
4th in WAR - 29.4

That is pretty darn impressive.

[owaistabish]

One of the most durable starters during that time as well. He has been an amazing pick for this team back in 2014.

[zambonir]

Yeah, that's fair, for MVP and HOF type debates, especially close ones. I just think of these things as being a lot more germane to arbitration awards and new contracts (as well as general team-building). So by all means the Phillies should pay the heck out of Alec Bohm next year based on what he's done. But should they pay the heck out of him for another four years?

(And by the way, remember when the Phillies made him to go arbitration just this past off-season when he wanted $4 million and they only offered $3.4? Which he won? I don't think he and Boras will be making it easy to do an extension.)

[Philsmania]

Saw some eye opening stats on Nola from MLBN:

From the start of the 2018 season in MLB, Nola ranks:

1st in starts - 202
3rd in wins - 78
1st in IP - 1,231.2
2nd in strike outs - 1,362
4th in WAR - 29.4

That is pretty darn impressive.

Interesting looking at Nola's career numbers by month. He's generally been outstanding in May, July and August throughout his career--3.29, 3.27 and 3.19 career ERA respectively in each month. In June and September, meanwhile, he's struggled--4.38 and 4.39 respectively. His August 2024 definitely corresponded to his usual career level. Let's hope his September 2024 does not.

[zambonir]

More worried about his October!

[Aquapong]

What a crazy career Wilson has had already. Homered his first ab during a no hitter. Hit for a cycle. First day back from paternity leave? Wanna pitch?

[zambonir]

So Alllard, once available, seems like the least-worst option, but if the Phillies really plan to try and preserve Phillips' 2025 option and aren't going to DFA Walker, one or the other of them has to take starts.

Rookie starter Tyler Phillips is eligible to return to the majors on Sunday when rosters expand to 28 players. He’ll have spent 15 days in the minors by then, and if he is on his optional assignment for less than 20 days, the Phillies will preserve his final minor-league option for 2025. That would enable them to use Phillips as rotation depth next season.

It’s a priority.

But Phillips was not effective in three starts after a complete-game shutout against Cleveland in late July; he had a 13.91 ERA in 11 innings. He’s allowed nine runs (and four homers) in two Triple-A starts since his demotion. Even if the Phillies wanted to start him next Tuesday in Toronto — Walker’s next turn — the rookie is not guaranteed to provide competent innings.

The Phillies have a recent waiver claim, Kyle Tyler, who has been passable at Triple A.

And Turnbull, who won't be a starter again anyway, still hasn't begun a rehab stint, so at this point they'll obviously make it so he can stay on the IL for the rest of the year if necessary.

I"m assuming they will skip the turn and then go with Allard but it may also depend how this series goes.

[andyb]

Clearly it seems the Phillips trip to the minors was timed with getting to the September 1 roster expansion.

Bigger question is whether they can get Walker to accept a trip to the minors. If not, they'll probably try to survive on bullpen games and using Walker in blowouts out of the bullpen. Not ideal, but the team probably does not want to move on from Walker's contract yet without seeing him in Spring Training next year to see if he is better. The whole WBC thing this year and various minor injuries have all hurt this season.

[zambonir]

WBC was last year (and didn't seem to affect him at all, that was Ranger who actually got hurt during it).

In truth, it seems like his arm and his stuff began to decline late last season. His stuff looked bad in October on his throw days which is why Sanchez got the playoff start. You have to wonder if the shoulder injury that eventually took him down in spring training was already an issue, or remains so. The blister was obviously a real issue but at this point nothing seems to be working for him, mechanically or velocity and location-wise.

He ate some innings yesterday though, that's for sure!

I doubt they will ask him to to go the minors because just from a baseball perspective it doesn't do him or the team any good. There's nothing he can go work on and come back to. He has to already know he won't even be on the playoff roster this year. He'd just be doing the team a favor opening a spot for a few weeks but he is well within his rights to not want to stay at an Allentown Quality Inn or ride buses, especially given the precedent his teammates have set skipping rehab trips.

I agree he's back next spring. If he has nothing then, he can be DFA'ed and may even accept the assignment if there's no indication other teams are eager to give him a shot.

[andyb]

I doubt they will ask him to to go the minors because just from a baseball perspective it doesn't do him or the team any good. There's nothing he can go work on and come back to.

There is plenty for him to work on in a lower pressure environment. They can tell him to go down and make 2-3 starts in the 15 days he'd have to be down there and give him a chance (not a guarantee) to come back if he does well. Walker knows he is not going to get any serious time in meaningful situations the rest of the season and whenever some reliever pitches 3 times in 4 days because the Phillies won't use Walker he'll be blamed.

He gets paid either way. The alternative to trying to fix himself is to be released and come to camp with some other team next year as a non-roster invite. Maybe the relationship with the Phillies is damaged, but the heart of this is him pitching poorly (and throwing 91 instead of 95). He can't win at 91 without perfect command and he knows that.

Bottom line is that if Walker is stubborn here it will all look bad for him. He can force the Phillies to release him and walk away from $39 million, but it is doubtful he wants that just yet. If he wants to pitch in some meaningful late September games the only way for him to do that is to go down to Lehigh Valley and pitch well. He is not Bryce Harper or JT Realmuto who can turn down a minor league assignment which his performance (not his health) has earned.

[zambonir]

It seems like the relationship is good. Thomson went and asked him to keep taking the ball yesterday to save the bullpen, and he did. I can't help but wonder if the Phillies have been overly solicitous of him because they kind of mistreated him last year (just in terms of communication and role). But of course there were a lot of other good reasons.

It's just really rare for a player to accept the trip to the minors under these circumstances. Walker actually will have to be removed from the 40 for it to happen. When Myers did it he had options, he just had the right to refuse.

My gut feeling is that the Phillies don't want to ask him to do it/put him in that position. They would at least have to have a gentleman's agreement to add him back to the 40 (otherwise, he would have foregone his chance to refuse it and become a FA). Probably a lot easier to claim an injury. All pitchers always have something that hurts.

[Philsmania]

Didn't the Phillies outright Adam Eaton in 2008? He accepted and reported to LHV only to be released the following ST. He still got a WC ring, though.

Attitude isn't Walker's problem. He's been accountable and it's not like it appears he's lazy, sitting on his $72 million or just doesn't care. But, it it's just not happening. Since rosters expand on Sunday, he's probably already started his last game of the season and it is possible that he stays on the ML roster the rest of the season, does some mop-up work out of the bullpen here and there and gets left off the Postseason roster. Maybe a fresh start next season will help, maybe not.

[Philsmania]

The Braves just keep rolling. They have a relatively easy schedule over the last two months and I was thinking that their series @ MIN would be one of their last remaining really tough series. But, they went there and swept away the Twins. To fend off the Braves, the Phillies really got to take care of things themselves because it doesn't look like they are going to get any help. Winning this head-to-head series against them would be huge.

[zambonir]

I'm not saying it never happens, it's just rare. It's funny Myers and Eaton were the same year. And that the '08 team was fine with such awful pitching (though that was never that team's strength, and Myers came back strong).

If I'm Walker, the Eaton example seems like a good reason to just refuse the assignment and get ready for next year and a new team. Eaton was sent down in late July and never pitched for the Phillies again, even though they put him back on the expanded September roster. Then they kept him until February 29 of '09 before releasing him. Walker knows the Phillies are more motivated to salvage him but that doesn't mean he has to go along with it.

[David_Criss]

Something is off with Walker's pitches. Absolutely no movement on them. Best thing is to find a reason to IL him and see what you've got in spring training before deciding to DFA, trade or put him back in the rotation.

[Austinfan]

The fifth starter won't make or break the season, maybe 2 extra losses in September, worth it if you save the bullpen.
Walker however is cooked, too bad Abel hasn't quite turned the corner.

Ruiz is a revelation, now throwing 97-98 with a good breaking ball, better pitcher than SD this season.
Covey has pitched well since returning, might be a September candidate to eat innings.

The hitter struggles are good in the sense the league has attacked them with offspeed pitches after the Allstar break, giving them two months to learn to adjust, instead of cruising all season then getting surprised in the playoffs.

I do think Dombrowski has to rethink paying big money to free swingers, I don't think they age well.

Though they can learn, Castellanos' turnaround is primarily due to being more disciplined about chasing off speed stuff low and away - when he waits and spits on those pitches he gets pitches over the plate, and he can hit breaking balls if they're up in the zone. Turner has the same issue, and being more disciplined is the solution - if they're going to bomb you with offspeed stuff, be patient and don't lunge. And when you're behind on the count, take the outside off speed pitch the other way instead of trying to pull it and turning it over into a GB to SS.

[zambonir]

It crossed my mind that they could go to Abel. A bit over-aggressive in terms of his struggles and development but it's entirely possible he would rise to the challenge and also enjoy the same first-look luck Phillips did. I'm sure they won't though.

The fifth starter won't make or break the season, maybe 2 extra losses in September, worth it if you save the bullpen.

I generally agree, but I'm not sure. Those two losses will likely be the difference between hosting the Braves in the Wild Card round or awaiting them (or the Brewers or another team) in the NLDS, and also means the rest you got for your pitchers in September goes away in a single extra round.

And it would be nice to win the Braves series. I think division is pretty locked if they do that. Atlanta's not gonna maintain an .800 pace all month either.

It seems like neither Covey nor Turnbull (if he's available) can "eat innings." Two at most. Doesn't seem like either of them will be here any time soon anyway. They'll bring up Phillips to preserve that option and then maybe give Allard another chance as the starter. Lazar and Mercado still likely to be back down sooner than later (though Lazar might stick or come back).

[Philsmania]

Here's a question I have heard conflicting answers to: if the Phillies DFA Walker and he refuses the assignment and gets his release, does he walk away from the money the Phillies owe him or not?

[Philsmania]

Something is off with Walker's pitches. Absolutely no movement on them. Best thing is to find a reason to IL him and see what you've got in spring training before deciding to DFA, trade or put him back in the rotation.

They don't need to come up with a bogus reason to IL him. Rosters expand on Sunday. They can send him to the bullpen and use him in mop up work when necessary or even conceivably not pitch him the rest of the season. The DFA decision can wait until ST. Having said that, MiLB season goes on a lot longer than it used to--pretty much to third week of September now. If he would agree to a demotion, it might give him the chance to actually work on things.

[zambonir]

He absolutely gets to keep the money. You always get to keep the money (if it's a normal guaranteed major league-only contract, as this one is). It's just that if you have less than five years service time you can't refuse the assignment and still have to play in the minors to earn it. Eaton still got his last $8 million after the Phillies released him too.

And yes, they can keep him on the roster if that's what they and he prefer, but rosters only expand by one. With no reliable fifth starter and no Alvarado (even if his roster spot is available) the spot is not without value. But, the long man/mop-up guy isn't usually that good. so sure, Walker could do that.