2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[andyb]

If the Phillies release Walker he definitely keeps the money. The only tiny portion the Phillies would realistically get back is the major league minimum if he signs with another team. There is no incentive for another team to pay Walker more than the minimum really since the Phillies are paying him already.

[julio]

If the Phillies release Walker he definitely keeps the money. The only tiny portion the Phillies would realistically get back is the major league minimum if he signs with another team. There is no incentive for another team to pay Walker more than the minimum really since the Phillies are paying him already.

Yes. The only ways the Phils could get out from under the contract would be if they could trade Walker (not permissible at this time), or by asking unconditional release waivers on him, and having some other club claim the contract (not likely). If they ask release waivers, and nobody claims him, he becomes a free agent, and the Phils are on the hook for the balance of his contract. And because he's a veteran, they can only ask outright waivers on him with his written consent.

And yes, they can keep him on the roster if that's what they and he prefer, but rosters only expand by one.

Rosters increase by two (from 26 to 28), but only one of those two can be a pitcher. (Technically, the restriction is that no more than 14 of the 28 players on the active roster can be pitchers, but since the Phils currently carry 13 pitchers...)

[zambonir]

Yes I should have said the number of pitchers can only expand by one. In the old days you could certainly just make Walker the 15th (or 18th) pitcher and not use him, which is presumably what happened to Adam Eaton in September of 2008 when the Phillies brought him back up.

Speaking of technicalities I suppose if the Phillies outrighted Walker with his consent, he would then become tradeable again, as a minor leaguer (just as David Buchanan got traded the other day). But nobody's doing that either.

[julio]

Speaking of technicalities I suppose if the Phillies outrighted Walker with his consent, he would then become tradeable again, as a minor leaguer (just as David Buchanan got traded the other day). But nobody's doing that either.

I think this is correct (although I haven't looked at the Rules on this one), but I never considered this scenario!

I have to say, it would be amusing if a club actually attempted to work out this kind of deal (subterfuge?), only to have it blow up when some third club got wind of it, and submitted a waiver claim on the player to prevent an opponent from gaining the player.

[zambonir]

Yes technically it would be illegal to even start the trade talks before he'd already cleared waivers and accepted the outright. But that would also be a very expensive blocking maneuver.

Not unrelated there are a number of players getting waived right now a la the Angels' moves last year. Including some relief arms if the Phillies really didn't think Alvarado is coming back. But most with some cost (contracts or options for next year if not the prorated $ this year).

[Austinfan]

Walker may accept the demotion b/c while the money is guaranteed, playing time isn't.
If he doesn't fix his issues, he's not only isn't going to pitch for the Phillies next year, he'll almost certainly start the season in AAA ball if he wants to play.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Speaking of technicalities I suppose if the Phillies outrighted Walker with his consent, he would then become tradeable again, as a minor leaguer (just as David Buchanan got traded the other day). But nobody's doing that either.

No, I do not believe he is tradable because he has been on a 40 man roster this season.

Quoted from mlbtraderumors article:

Buchanan is eligible to be traded after the deadline because he has not been on a 40-man roster all season.

[zambonir]

Ah. Good catch.

[zambonir]

If he doesn't fix his issues, he's not only isn't going to pitch for the Phillies next year, he'll almost certainly start the season in AAA ball if he wants to play.

"If you don't let us outright you to AAA you'll probably start next season in AAA" doesn't sound like much of a threat.

No matter what he does over the next four weeks, he's not guaranteed a spot on a major league roster next year. His odds may be better with another team that has newly acquired him and is only paying him major league minimum than it is going to be with the Phillies (to say nothing of their fan base).

If the relationship is good and he wants to be in Clearwater next year, he'll do it if they ask him to do it. But in a weird way he has all the leverage. They have to at minimum promise he'll be added back to the 40 this season, and also that he'll be given a chance to win back his spot in spring training. Without both of those stipulations he has no reason to stick around (and also really can't rebuild any trade value for the Phillies. Unless he's a throw-in to balance some of that Mike Trout salary ).

[zambonir]

Phillies moving Taijuan Walker to bullpen

[gmwannabe]

Again, what a shame that Painter got injured.

[zambonir]

Who knows what the butterfly effect would have been there. Would Cristopher Sanchez even be on the Phillies now?

Last April, Painter, Suarez, Sanchez and Falter all had issues. Had they know what Sanchez and Suarez were going to become this year they probably never sign Walker in the first place. But the fact that they did also tells you they weren't putting their chips on Painter (or Abel) either, which was smart. And then they still had to go get Lorenzen (who was also better than Walker this year).

The woulda shoulda hindsight is that they should have re-signed Eflin. They thought they were getting a better more durable pitcher for the extra money and this year he was neither.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Yippee! I’m going to Thursday’s game and I was terrified it would be Walker. Sanchez at home I’ll take in a Phillie minute.

Hope you enjoyed the game, even if Sanchez wasn’t the difference maker after all.

[zambonir]

Current Phillies Fangraphs projections:

94.8 wins (behind Dodgers, well ahead of Brewers)

91.5 % chance of winning NL East

99.7% chance of making playoffs

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[Patchmk88]

Interesting Brewers must have a tough schedule if we are well ahead of them.

[zambonir]

Phillies SOS 488 Brewers .498. Brew projected to win 91.5. Phillies are 2.5 up on them now so that is just a small expansion of current lead. Of course the toughest remaining team on Brewer schedule is probably Phillies, and vice versa after this weekend.

[David_Criss]

Totally missed Mercado optioned and Marte recalled yesterday. Guessing Kennedy recalled if Bohm has to miss a few games. Kingery, Covey aren't getting a chance this year.

[Callison]

Good looking game yesterday, said to have an October feel to it. Not even the new, improved Merrifield could save them. The Braves are strong rivals and have been pushing the Phils around. No love lost between these teams. Great baseball.

[andyb]

Totally missed Mercado optioned and Marte recalled yesterday.

Mercado has been pretty average the last month in AAA so not unexpected that Marte is back. Rosters expand Sunday so that is when we likely add a left-handed bat (Clemens or Stevenson most likely, Dahl still possible) and another pitcher that likely can start (Phillips or Allard with a slight chance of Kyle Tyler). We could also see some cycling of 40-man arms if they encounter bullpen games as they work around Walker not pitching too many meaningful innings.

[zambonir]

It sounds pretty much set that Phillips will come up and make two starts. If he's good enough he'll keep going and if not Allard will be eligible for recall by then. Whether there are bullpen games or not, agreed we could still see other guys, including Kyle Tyler, maybe even Covey, certainly Turnbull if he's ready (but seems like he is where Covey wound up last year).

Perhaps also Gilbert if Alvarado's gone longer? But there's still only so many spots, especially with Walker locked in as #14.

The other goal is to let one of the many Tylers - or whomever - start the last two games of the season.