2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[andyb]

But Bohm's offense could easily have slipped 10%-20% by his age 30-31 seasons. If his defense is a negative, how valuable is a +2.5 oWAR offensive player. This is the only year when Bohm's total WAR is even over 1.0 in his career and age 27 is typically a player's best year.

Frankly Miller and Crawford should be our best offensive players in 3-4 years along with Bryce and hopefully Turner (and that is hoping with fingers crossed).

[zambonir]

In 3-4 years, Bohm will have his age 30 and 31 seasons. Unless the Phillies sign another start hitter by then, Bohm is probably the best hitter on the team and only the 3rd highest paid. Unless something changes drastically, I'd definitely extend him.

Bohm has already turned 28. He will play the last two months (hopefully three months) of his last controlled Philliies season at 30. You'd be signing him in two years, not "three or four" for ages 30-34, maybe even 35. If he wanted to take a short extension this off-season through ages 31 and 32 I would certainly do it - the savings and security would be good and the potential for down years lower - but Boras doesn't usually go that way,

Either way, I'm just not prepared to assume Bohm is immune to slumps or aging, let alone expecting improvement when he hasn't even improved this year after the first month. Just as Stott and Marsh have not improved this year, and they have more runway left on their salaries and ages. His defense is still poor and in the end his break-out All-Star season isn't going to end up being that much better than his 2023 season or career average, unless he has a big September. His second-half OPS is .750, and what he did in April turned out to be an outlier - he has not threatened to have an .850 OPS, let alone .900, since then. And his BABIP remains high, albeit on par with his career. I do think there's something somewhat sustainable about his ability to hit for average and with RISP, but not forever, and he's still not really a 1B/DH type bat.

[allentown]

By 'extend him' I meant extend his contract before he becomes a FA.

This year definitely is significantly better than 2023 or his career average. He has 3.4 bWAR thus far this season. Last year he had 0.4 bWAR and his career, including this year, is 4.2 bWAR. Part of the improvement is an OPS+ of 125 this year, vs 106 last year. Perhaps more significantly, his defense has improved to +0.1 dWAR this year, vs negative 1.4-1.5 in each of his prior almost full MLB seasons. This season, Bohm is 2nd among Phillies position players in bWAR, just a hair behind Harper. Burrell has definitely improved in his age 28 season, both offensively and defensively. I certainly want him on the team for another 5 seasons.

[andyb]

A 4-year deal now would have to be in the $50-$60 million range. Probably the high end of that. Arbitration awards the next 2 years could total $25 million. The free agency years would be more expensive. Do we think Bohm will be worth close to $20 million a year in his age 30/31 seasons? And would he even sign that deal now?

[zambonir]

It would basically be on Bohm to tell Boras he wants to stay and get it done, and on Phillies-favorable terms.

Yes 125 OPS+ is a lot better than 106 but he is still living off April to a large extent. Since then his regular OPS is .648/.812/.807/.701 with September TBD. My guess is he's about a 110-115 OPS player in his last two Phillies seasons, and he may yet end up there this season if his last month isn't more like the middle two. He is playing passable defense and last year he probably got punished for moving around so much. Still a good player and one you certainly don't non-tender but I don't think you give him those nine-figure years.

Also he is still 175th of 177 3B (obviously that's a lot of part-time players) in defensive runs saved.

[RolenRules]

Phillies Outright Dylan Covey

I hadn't seen this posted.

[mdougherty12]

A 4-year deal now would have to be in the $50-$60 million range. Probably the high end of that. Arbitration awards the next 2 years could total $25 million. The free agency years would be more expensive. Do we think Bohm will be worth close to $20 million a year in his age 30/31 seasons? And would he even sign that deal now?

I could be wrong, but I can't imagine Bohm would consider a 4 year extension this off-season. It doesn't make any sense to sign a short extension coming off your best season to date with only 2 years until you hit free agency.

[andyb]

That is what I think too. I could easily see a 2-year deal to avoid arbitration. Maybe even an option for a 3rd year that takes away the first year of free agency but that would be it. Something like $8 million/$12 million/$4 million buyout of an $18 million option. So 2/$24 guaranteed, 3/$38 potential.

Boras just does not like to give away those first couple of years of free agency because those years are what might get Bohm a longer deal then.

[allentown]

A 4-year deal now would have to be in the $50-$60 million range.

I'd do that deal. At the high end of your range.

[schillingfan]

I was at that game too! The only Phillies game I have gone too. I was complaining thqt it was really a rotten thing to have Walker pitch on Cole’s day. Can you imagine going to only two games and getting Walker for both?

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Pretty happy I traded my Wed tix for Tuesday already,

I think you made a good choice!

[Florida_Sunshine]

Maybe because the games against Atlanta are more important and they were looking at matchups for him and Sanchez.

[zambonir]

Man oh man.

My friend from Houston who flew in for both it and last night, not so much.

Well, that Covey move wound up being pretty simple.

[RolenRules]

Reds Acquire David Buchanan From Phillies

Obviously I spend too much time on the mlbtraderumors.com site.

[zambonir]

I actually saw that one. it's pretty fascinating to me, the organization and 40-man roster dances teams are doing right now. I mean the Astros just picked up both Neris and Heyward during this series. The Cubs also put Drew Smyly on waivers, if the Phillies weren't sure about Alvarado going forward he'd probably be worth a look (and probably better than Tanner Banks too but he comes with a lot of $ attached).

[dicemen99]

Pretty interest take on Fangraphs here:

Calculating WAR Using RE24

WARviews batting results in a vacuum, ignoring context, and the article takes a look at using RE24 to calculate WAR - incorporating how player at-bats impact scoring because of the situation.

Makes sense to me. As the author put it, batters change their behavior according to the situation. A fly ball with one outs and a runner on third is NOT the same as a fly ball with no outs and no one on. A single with the bases loaded and two outs is probably more valuable than a double with two outs and nobody on.

Phils had three regulars with a positive impact calculating WAR with RE24:

Bohm +0.48 (3.91 WAR to 4.39 WAR/RE)
Marsh+0.42
Schwarber +0.31 - he may have gotten that whole bump from the two-out grand slam against the Marlins!

Rojas was basically neutral (+0.01) and the rest of our regulars were negative:

Stott -0.15
Harper -0.26
Realmuto -0.33
Turner -0.41
Castellanos -0.64.

With the exception of Marsh, if you asked me which of our guys were having a good season (for them) without looking at WAR or OPS, etc. - yeah, I would have said Bohm and Schwarber and I would have said the other guys were down - with the exception of Rojas, who has been both up and down. Even Harper - just hasn't been as many of those BIG moments that I'm used to with him and that slump was really something.

Interesting take by Ben Clemens.

[dicemen99]

Perusing Fangraphs starter chart for today and Walker is ranked 29th out of 30 with only an opener (Fernando Cruz) ranked below him.

On a positive note (I guess), the Dodgers are sending out Walker Buehler tonight. Buehler is the only pitcher going tonight that even comes close to Walker for poor performance this year. Walker - 6.26 ERA/1.58 WHIP, Buehler 6.09 ERA/1.67 WHIP. So we're not the only contender dealing with something like this.

[andyb]

Interesting article. I think it is a useful stat, though question how much better it is than WAR. It is kind of a WPA infused version of WAR and it will help good players that do well in clutch situations. And conversely players that hit into double plays when there are ways to avoid that (hit fly balls, hit the other way, draw walks, etc.) get downgraded.

But it also seems to define value based upon the number of important situations a player is in. So a player at the bottom of the lineup has much less opportunity than one at the top. On the Phillies we know Bohm so it makes sense he is a gainer (and also the runners in front give him opportunities). Turner and Castellanos also both could do better at situational hitting. In general though I am not sure the adjustments have that much value as it basically enhances clutch hitting by good hitters with lots of opportunity.

Certainly a stat worth looking at. Just not sure it is better than WAR, especially for those of us who believe clutch hitting is pretty random.

[zambonir]

It was a very interesting article but as the author himself says, it is really about making a version of WAR that is descriptive instead of predictive - a distinction that I guess a lot of fans do fail to make in general. We don't necessarily lack for ways to document clutch hitting (RISP, RBIs, BA with men on base) but we also know those things can be more variable (as well as opportunity-dependent).

[dicemen99]

It was a very interesting article but as the author himself says, it is really about making a version of WAR that is descriptive instead of predictive

I agree with this. But since WAR is so often cited in arguments about awards (MVP, HOF), who is better, etc. isn't a descriptive measure better for these arguments?

I am not quite with @andyb that being "clutch" is entirely random even over a large sample size. I think it is much more random - especially in baseball, where even the best offensive performers are failing up to 6 times out of 10 - than people generally think, but there is some advantage at the margins with some athletes in pressure situations.

If I'm a GM trying to build my team for next year, then by all means, WAR is better. But if I'm a voter for the MVP or some other award, or a fan looking at how well my guy is doing this year, then a descriptive measure seems better than a predictive one.