2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[andyb]

The issue is if we can upgrade RF and solidify LF, then Rojas can stay in CF and hit #9 without much issue.

Upgrading the outfield without subtracting in some areas like defense is hard. Casty's contract could only be traded while picking up a large portion. Marsh and Hays make a good platoon, but neither is really a full time player. Rojas is inexpensive and by far the best defensive option. I guess part of what they do might depend on whether they see Crawford as the CF of the future. Then Rojas is expendable and would have trade value. Hays is a non-tender candidate, but if they went and got a full-time player then they should really trade Marsh too.

The team does have enough offense even with weak contributions from the OF. I wonder if they spend money locking up pitching (Ranger, Hoffman, Estevez will all be expensive) and just live with the below average OF production (waiting a year for Crawford to force a real shift).

[bkeich]

Why guarantee 20% losses like that?

Because they aren't any more guaranteed than pitching the other guys. And they aren't must-win games. That seems beyond obvious, the team believes it would be better for Walker - or any combo of relievers - to eat innings in losses than to push our best starters and best relievers. The first and second seeds are still important but there is no Walker-free path that guarantees it any more than one with him. He's probably not even worst than the 5th starters on most of the NL contenders and at least one of those teams is fighting for its playoff life.

If he can't go to the minors or the IL the best thing is to figure out how to use him so long as he is taking up a roster spot. I wouldn't want to see Mercado start Wednesday, and Allard wasn't an option for that spot even before he was sent down.

Walker starting is as close to a guaranteed loss as you can get. A guy with a 6+ ERA, a FIP that is even a little higher (implying he has actually been a little lucky) and 8 straight losses for the team when he starts.

Yes, we need innings, but not these innings. There is must win, which these games are not, but we do need some wins and putting all of the burden on the other starters to now have to win that much higher a percentage of their games seems silly.

I don’t think we should waive Walker, but it is crazy to actually be trying to maximize his innings and starts when he is clearly not performing. By that argument we should have kept Whitfield and played him every inning to rest our better players.

You imply these games don’t matter, but they very much do. We have lost bigger divisional leads than this and why would we allow ourselves to fall into the Wild Card? Home field in the playoffs in baseball does help, I am not saying go all out (1964) to try and win, but it is foolish to send a guy who fails time after time out there.

You talk about what seems like using Walker as a short inning starter, that would be reasonable BUT that isn’t what Thomson is doing. Walker still gets his 100 pitches, he just gives up more runs than anyone else. If we say we are going to send him out for 1 trip through the batting order that is fine, but that isn’t what is happening and Thomson has shown no signs that is his plan.

[VoteForKalas]

Casty's contract could only be traded while picking up a large portion.

How much do you think the Phillies would have to eat to move Casty? I like Santander for RF who could be a FA this off-season if the O's do not extend him. I think they'll keep him, but if we were able to move Casty and sign Santander, would that put us over the next tax penalty threshold?

[andyb]

It might be on the order of eating $10 million of Casty's contract and then paying Santander $25-$30 million a year. We would get a couple of decent prospects for Casty, but you'd be increasing payroll a lot.

[zambonir]

I agree I would rather make Walker be a bulk reliever or work with an opener then just keep blindly starting him.

But I have yet to see an argument that the Phillies have a better 5th starter, at least not this week (since Allard wouldn't have been available even if he was still up). Or that bullpen games would be better for the team over the next month.

I also think Thomson is correct when he says Walker has earned another chance. Not by his performance this year, but by his performance last year, and in his career. It was always reasonable to give him the benefit of the doubt over the collection of half-broken journeymen and AAAA pitchers. And it's Thomson's style - not because he blindly prefers vets over young players (if only we had one!) but because he's about loyalty and steadiness. And more often than not that approach has been rewarded (albeit more with the likes of Bohm and Castellanos than pitchers).

He allowed three earned runs in his first two starts this time. In too-short outings, granted, but he gave them a nominal chance to win (they lost those games 5-0 and 6-4).

I don't think he gets more than once chance. After this week they'll have more roster flexibility (both in terms of recall windows being up and having an extra pitcher).
If Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are sitting in the ice bath together talking about how much it sucks that their manager keeps sending out his terrible pitcher, that would be a problem. But of course we know that's not how that clubhouse is.

[zambonir]

Unpopular opinion: Casty looks pretty good to me right now. Granted it would be great to get out from under him while you still can, because with the defense (and the inability to play him at DH) he's still pretty much replacement level. But he's had around an .800 OPS or better every month since June (and it was over .700 in May so he was already turning the corner) and carried the (admittedly more limited) offense at times when the the other guys were either absent or slumping. And he's mashing breaking balls.

Listen if this team doesn't at least get back to the NLCS nobody will be irreplaceable. Including Marsh and Rojas. But my playoff OF is Hays/Marsh against LHP and Marsh/Rojas every other night. You could still play Marsh in CF occasionally against a tougher RHP but I'm not sure having Hays play LF makes it at all worthwhile. Just let Johan catch the ball. He had more impact on last night's 3-2 game in one inning than Hays did in nine.

[VoteForKalas]

Unpopular opinion: Casty looks pretty good to me right now. Granted it would be great to get out from under him while you still can, because with the defense (and the inability to play him at DH) he's still pretty much replacement level.

That is why I would advocate moving him if you could. He has done really well since June and hopefully a team would see the value of him as a DH.

This also stems from me not wanting to move Schwarber who would be the other option (1 less year on the contract) to free up the DH for Casty. Schwarber brings more to the lineup and clubhouse IMO. I'm not likely to extend him beyond 2026, but I certainly like him more than Casty in the short term.

But my playoff OF is Hays/Marsh against LHP and Marsh/Rojas every other night. You could still play Marsh in CF occasionally against a tougher RHP but I'm not sure having Hays play LF makes it at all worthwhile. Just let Johan catch the ball. He had more impact on last night's 3-2 game in one inning than Hays did in nine.

I agree completely with this for the playoff run. It is the best option. Next season is what I was thinking about and how we can upgrade the OF to help the offense. We have an advantage at C and the infield is quite good, but the OF continues to lag behind. If we could improve that before our competitive window closes, that would be helpful.

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't see them moving on from Schwarber regardless (but agree I don't extend him. And at that point then, the question becomes does Bryce move to DH at least half the time).

For sure it would be better to sell high(ish) on Casty and be proactive than to only make a big change if they fail too. But that might also include pitching (clearly they were interested in Crochet, maybe even more than Robert). Also the Phillies can probably easily trade Casty or move on from Walker (financially), but maybe not both in the same year.

As for the IF I'm ready to switch Stott and Turner though I suppose it's immaterial. Either way you're getting great defense at one spot and great offense at the other.

[bkeich]

Story and Turner switching sounds like the right move if they can approach it correctly with Turner. It isn’t a demotion, it is just nature and it takes some pressure off him as he might actually be an average 2B defensively.

The bigger question is Stott. I have no doubt I would keep him, but I worry that they might non-tender him when he starts getting pricey after next season. His defense alone gets him 2 WAR, maybe even more and his baserunning also contributes. He was a very solid 4+ WAR last season and about 3 WAR this year. That is worth a lot, I am just worried that the Phils still have some (fewer than they used to) old school guys that see slightly below league average offensive numbers and say “we can replace him”.

[bkox]

I am just worried that the Phils still have some (fewer than they used to) old school guys that see slightly below league average offensive numbers and say “we can replace him”.

They also have Bryce Harper who strongly advocates for the players he wants on the team... and Stott is a very close friend

[Callison]

IMHO, Allard has pitched 5 quality starter innings twice and has earned another start. Allard has no rep and suffering discrimination in spite of performance. Maybe he's always lucky.

The Phils are going to have to face the Walker problem in a cooperative, inteligent way. He's not the same pitcher he has been. Maybe he needs some intense PT over the off season to regain some strength. Whatever. For this season, they need to make him a long reliever. Rob will have to choose his spots to pitch him. Touching story about sitting next to his family, I wish Walker well. But seems like the Phils will be gathering more data.

Yesterday's game, beating Hader, reminds you of the will to win the Phils had while they were playing .700 ball.

[andyb]

As for the IF I'm ready to switch Stott and Turner though I suppose it's immaterial.

I think Stott is close to Turner defensively but not really better. Trea does have a true SS arm where Stott would be below average there. When a move does not make you better it might be best to postpone it. Turner might actually be Bohm's successor at 3B in a few years when Bohm's defense declines to the point where he has to play 1B or DH and those positions could be filled on the Phillies.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Stott grades out poorly at shortstop, not as bad as Turner, but below average and it is related to his arm strength and throwing motion (essentially he just doesn't get the same strength on the move, so heading into the hole) and his range is good, but not amazing. So you are gaining maybe a 1-2 run improvement over the course of a year at short and unknown change at second just to swap the two players and not actually create a long term answer at short.

[bkeich]

Stott grades out poorly at shortstop, not as bad as Turner, but below average and it is related to his arm strength and throwing motion (essentially he just doesn't get the same strength on the move, so heading into the hole) and his range is good, but not amazing. So you are gaining maybe a 1-2 run improvement over the course of a year at short and unknown change at second just to swap the two players and not actually create a long term answer at short.

So if Stott is a little below average at SS and above average at 2B (presumably) that isn’t all of the question. Maybe Turner is actually average at 2 B and reasonably bad at SS, not sure, which implies it still might be a good move.

Turner at 3B eventually is interesting, but his bat starts looking pretty average, or maybe even worse when you do that. CF would be another option, but hopefully we have a slew of prospects (and Rojas) that make that unlikely.

Long term deals for guys once they are in their 30s are just so much fun. Think Harper can go back to catching?

[andyb]

The arm means you would want Turner at 3B or maybe the outfield if you moved him.

Jury is really out on Stott's offense too. He is still inexpensive, but this year was supposed to be a step up.

I have no idea where Turner will eventually go, but it really feels like 2 more years at shortstop because they do not have anything better and then we see where Caba and Miller and maybe Rincon are both defensively and offensively. Caba is the obvious SS defensively, but if Miller can play SS don't we want to try to see if that can happen at the major league level?

[Philsmania]

My inclination is to say that Turner should probably be in LF, maybe even by next year. The million dollar question is who plays shortstop?

[zambonir]

Sosa!

I don't think Stott is going anywhere. But he needs to show Bohm-like improvement at the plate next year.

(At the same time I still don't keep Bohm past his controllable years, or put him at 1B. Also Turner's current bat doesn't look any worse than Bohm's at 3B.)

[bkox]

Do we realize than among 3rd baseman that Bohm is 4th in MLB in OPS, 3rd in OBP and 5th in SLG? Number 1 in hits and doubles and 2nd in RBIs? ANd 19th in Ks. Hes 4th in fWAR behind Jose Ramirez, Devers and Matt Chapman.

Only 4 3rd basemen have an OPS above .800 this year. We talk like Bohm is expendable.. but at least this year hes one of the top 3rd baseman in MLB.

[andyb]

Bohm is worth it this year. But if his defense slips in his early 30s then his offense is not enough to make him more than a 1-2 WAR player. It is kind of the Castellanos problem in that the offense will need to be very good to cancel out the defense. Now if he is going to continue to be an 800+ OPS guy that will play at 1B or DH, but where are Bryce and others going to go?

Bohm and Stott are both great values now on entry level or early arbitration contracts. The question is whether they will be worth free agent prices as their defense declines. That is the very question we answered poorly with Castellanos, especially since his signing came after Schwarber.

[allentown]

Bohm is worth it this year. But if his defense slips in his early 30s then his offense is not enough to make him more than a 1-2 WAR player.

In 3-4 years, Bohm will have his age 30 and 31 seasons. Unless the Phillies sign another start hitter by then, Bohm is probably the best hitter on the team and only the 3rd highest paid. Unless something changes drastically, I'd definitely extend him.