2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[zambonir]

We're not going to lose the bye. Brewers have played worse than us.

[Philsmania]

One thing you could say is that in the NL, the division leaders are all crawling to the finish line while the wild card contenders with the exception of the Diamondbacks are all surging. The opposite is true in the AL where the division leaders are all putting on the afterburners while the wild card contenders other than the Tigers are all ice cold.

[zambonir]

And don't you think the reason, if there is one, is that the wild card teams are playing games that truly matter and the division leaders really haven't been for weeks, if not months? With the exception being Milwaukee which would have made a run at the bye and never stepped up. Whereas San Diego has kept the pedal down for the #4 and Mets have made their run into the playoff spot. But then like you say AL is opposite.

We started September 10-3. Now 2-5 since then, all on the road. They all count the same. You could quibble about schedule quality but they faced some good teams. And two of those three losses were on the road to Miami too. Before that they took three straight series from KC, Atlanta and Houston to end August.

None of this is especially predicitve. Starting pitching is this team's strength and the thing you can count on most. Offense and bullpens run hot and cold. If not for a bad Cardinals bullpen in Game 1 of WC 2022 they might not have gotten out of that round. If not for one great offensive game in Game 3 of NLDS 2023 ditto. We know what those games look like and we also know what the true gut punch games look like from WS 2022 and NLDS 2023.

[dicemen99]

I agree. It's a lottery in the playoffs, no matter how you are playing coming in - unless, of course, if a bad streak coming in is a result of a weakened team, e.g. significant injuries.

Having possibly the best starting pitching in the playoffs is a distinct "evening" of the ups and downs experienced during a long regular season. With excellent starting pitching at least we can reasonably count on being in most games, even through a 7-game series. Some other teams, not so much.

The Mets are hot right now, but in two weeks everything can turn on a dime. I look at their starting pitching and who they have to line up against our starters - bring them on. Of course, in a short series anything's possible, but I like our chances. We've got a lot more bullets in the pen as well to ride the hot hand.

[zambonir]

I think the best team in the LCS stage - the deepest, with the better pitching - still wins the World Series, even if it doesn't happen straighforwardly. Astros 2022, Rangers 2023. But the four best teams are not necessarily in that stage to begin with (and indeed it was a #6 wild card losing the World Series the last two years).

2020 was also a crapshoot that ended with the two best teams in the WS and the best team winning.

The Mets are hot right now, but in two weeks everything can turn on a dime. I look at their starting pitching and who they have to line up against our starters - bring them on. Of course, in a short series anything's possible, but I like our chances. We've got a lot more bullets in the pen as well to ride the hot hand.

Yeah despite all evidence to the contrary over the past 10 days and two months I still think I'd rather play the Mets than the Braves in NLDS. Or the West teams for that matter.

[Aquapong]

Is the rain light enough to play through? Both teams have off Thursday.

[EastFallowfield]

Yeah despite all evidence to the contrary over the past 10 days and two months I still think I'd rather play the Mets than the Braves in NLDS

Seems like our losing 3 of 4 in Flushing helps the odds that Mets instead of Braves deal happens.

[dicemen99]

Yeah despite all evidence to the contrary over the past 10 days and two months I still think I'd rather play the Mets than the Braves in NLDS

Seems like our losing 3 of 4 in Flushing helps the odds that Mets instead of Braves deal happens.

Yep, kind of like cod liver oil. Unpleasant when it's going down, but good for you in the long run.

[zambonir]

Yeah I have always wanted the Mets to oust the Braves, I was just hoping we'd clinch first and then give them a couple of wins. But that would have required one more win in Milwaukee too.

I would personally just rather see the Mets in the playoff than the Braves, and would enjoy a Phillies-Mets playoff series.

But.. even assuming the clinch easily land secure one off the bye, Phillies still get very little say (i.e. Mets have to beat Milwaukee or San Diego on the road first, plus we'd have to draw their side of the bracket).

What's a little galling is they just did all that without Lindor.

And Braves still get a say too, if they can at least win their series.

[zambonir]

The Phillies moved into first place 143 days ago. Their lead never shrunk below five games in the summer. They didn't have to dig out of a huge hole in 2024

"But we still had that mindset — like we’re still chasing somebody."

Story: https://t.co/EOugOQw09D

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) September 24, 2024

[el-pietro]

Downside is if the Phillies face the Mets in the playoffs you know there will be thousands of Mets fans in the ball park. Just like when the Knicks came down to Wells Fargo earlier this year.

[zambonir]

No chance. It's already close to sold out. Sixers fans are jaded, we're not quite there yet. The economics are different too (both what they cost and what they can be sold for).

[EastFallowfield]

Mets playoff tickets go on sale today* at 10 for the first two rounds, I suppose we could play there in the second round (knock wood)

*Only if you read this on Thursday!

[zambonir]

presale? I'm seeing Thursday. Though come to think of it I can't go regardless.

SOP but they are also unlikely to actually play/host those wild card games

I haven't ruled out buying Dodgers tickets though that is also unlikely (I wouldn't have been in past year when I lived out West).

[zambonir]

Remember when this guy used to post a lot?

Hollywood’s new ‘graffiti mansion’ has a Philadelphia connection

It’s unclear if Middleton ever lived in the home or occupied it, but public records show the house was declared a nuisance and considered abandoned more than a decade ago.

Middleton is the son of Phillies owner John Middleton.

He’s a Philadelphia native and attended the University of Pennsylvania. He’s a film producer with credits including the A&E TV series Bates Motel and The Lego Movie. He’s one half of The Affleck/Middleton Project with Casey Affleck, the production company behind the Oscar-winning film Manchester by the Sea.

He lists himself as a Phillies owner on his Instagram page — which he has not posted to in 12 weeks.

[flyers19rw]

In the last two series the Phillies hitters swung at 39.2% of the pitches that were out of the strike zone resulting in 30.5% of their outs being strikeouts. If they keep up that rate versus good pitching their PO run will be a short one.

[Austinfan]

That is the problem with this team, lack of plate discipline.
It not only results in outs, it results in a lower pitch count, allowing a "hot" starter to make it to the 7th inning, then you get the best two RPs. If you have hitters who can work a count, you can drive up pitch count to 60+ even without scoring over the first 3 innings. Especially in this day and age when too many pitchers go for the K instead of the out.

The one flaw Dombrowski has, he's a dino who doesn't seem to understand analytics.
Even with his bounceback, Castellanos was a bad signing at every level, OPS, defense. Schwarber on the other hand . . .

The guy who puzzles me is Stott, he has a good eye and is able to hit with 2 strikes, he should be a walk machine. I think it's a matter of trusting his ability, and being more patient.

And that's unfortunately the one flaw with Crawford, hopefully they can work on his plate discipline in AAA next year.
Same issue with Rojas, he has a quick bat, if he learns to lay off pitches outside the zone he could be dangerous.

[Callison]

There's a problem you don't see every day - people so rich they ignore or forget a mansion.

I'm with the fans anxious to see the Braves eliminated. Hopefully the rivalry won't resume until next season.

IF the Dodgers and Phils playoff and I lived nearby, I would try to attend every game in Philly. $$$$$ I wonder what a seat midway up the 3B line would cost? The WS won't be any better.

Watching Nola get that W, you gotta like what you see in his consistency last few outings.

[andyb]

DD understands analytics just fine. He just disagrees with some of the posters on this board. We all knew the Castellanos signing was doubling down on offense and got complicated by the lack of the DH the first couple of years. But he was DD's guy and there was a case he could have been an 800+ OPS bat in the middle of the lineup.

Yes the Phillies are too aggressive. But they also get much of their power from being aggressive. It is not our money so I really don't care if they overspend here and there. It really has not prevented them from doing anything substantial and the GM DOES understand analytics and defense. It is why we end up going out and getting guys like Marsh and Sosa while also playing somebody like Rojas who basically is a marginal hitter at the major league level with zero power and plate discipline.

We have a GM who has put together a deep lineup. An owner willing to pay for that. A Tampa asst GM finding us relievers off the scrap heap. And two aces at the top of the rotation that we were smart enough to lock up for the rest of their careers most likely. That is how you win with money even if it offends some sensibilities out there.

[zambonir]

Right but:

From Sept. 1-15, the Phillies had the 25th lowest strikeout rate in baseball (21%), despite swinging at 36.5% of the pitches they saw out of the strike zone (the second-highest in baseball). Since then, they’ve chased at a rate of 39.2%, with a strikeout rate of 30.5%.

As the Phillies chase a bye in the playoffs, they’re also chasing at the plate...

Sometimes they execute, sometimes they don't. Sometimes you have a good two weeks, sometimes you don't. For a while the story of the season was that they'd lowered their chase (it doesn't take much, just a few percentage points). If they remain as susceptible to breaking balls as they have been, and are unable to win via other strengths, then yes, they simply won't be the better team in a series. And every team in the playoffs has that one bad week except for one.