2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[zambonir]

Turnbull isn't going to start anymore. If he does have a chance to make the playoff roster he needs to get a few turns coming out of the pen, which he never fully adjusted to previously. My guess is he stays in Clearwater with the taxi squad initially, at least until the NLCS, when they may carry the extra pitcher (but they may not). If Walker is in play for the postseason roster partly out loyalty and it being a low-leverage job, Turnbull certainly deserves no less. What would be nice is if he could actually get bigger outs, not just mop up (like, at his best he's better than Banks, and has more experience if not the stuff of Lazar).

I don't know that the Braves were affected by not playing meaningful games in late September. But it might be no more or less of a theory than it just being the Wild Card layoff. You could say the same about the Dodgers.

[gmwannabe]

I still think it was wrong to take Turnbull out of the rotation for Walker. I know the phils had to do it and people were concerned of his innings, but man he was pitching so well. do you think the injury was the result of putting him in the bullpen and changing his status of throwing?

[zambonir]

It's clearly wrong in hindsight! But it was not unreasonable at the time to think that Walker would be better and Turnbull would either be worse, injured, or unable to give them enough innings. Or all of the above. The way the Phillies saw it Walker would have been replacing Turnbull in the rotation by mid-season regardless. And they still needed the innings they got from all these #5s. It just beggars belief how bad Walker and the others have been, and also that the Phillies couldn't score more runs for them at least a few times (after Walker's initial starts, which they won several of).

And it's also true that Turnbull immediately injured himself when he finally got a chance to start again, but that's still correlation not causation, especially with a pitcher who has hit the IL between one and three times every season (in addition to having TJ surgery). And doesn't seem to heal quickly to boot.

[Austinfan]

Ranger is the wildcard, he's not ready for the playoffs right now, but I think they've been focused on slowly rebuilding his strength to get him playoff ready. So two more starts and probably #4 with an extra day of rest.

Still, when you can roll out Wheeler, Nola and Sanchez, with a deep bullpen, not a bad set-up for playoff baseball.

[zambonir]

I think Ranger and Sanchez are both pretty slim bets to go five full innings/third time through with October managing styles. Even Nola shouldn't get the benefit of the doubt like he does in the regular season. And you still have to play the long game with both him and Wheeler's workload. Wheeler is going to end up with career high innings if they make a decent playoff run.

[Austinfan]

I'd keep Wheeler on the 5 day rotation but maybe limit his pitch count to 90 or so next couple starts.

[andyb]

I think Ranger is the 4th starter at the moment and might be on a 3-4 inning limit even in starts to make himself available regularly out of the bullpen. He can see that Sanchez is healthier and has earned the 3rd starter spot but he'll still want to do anything to help the team. Remember when we thought Tanner Banks could be a 2-inning lefty out of the bullpen? I want Ranger in that role proactively.

[andyb]

Wheeler and Nola should take their last starts or work on the side as we cycle through the last roster spot. Really does not matter and maybe it should be up to them as to whether they face live hitters. If best record is in play they will almost certainly take their turn. After that is decided it is up to them.

[Austinfan]

Wheeler hates a day off, so I can't see him skipping a start.

[zambonir]

It was different last year because nothing was at stake and they didn't have five days off. But they can be conservative.

Ranger out of the pen is always intriguing but if his stuff is a little off not sure you can just march him out there to face Matt Olson in his first post-season appearance this year (though Matt Olson himself might not be there). But I he's the Game 4 starter he'd presumably be available in the pen for Games 6-7.

Will still be interesting to see what they do with Game 2. Probably they will do the obvious thing but Sanchez's road splits and the R/L flexibility at least makes it interesting.

[andyb]

But I he's the Game 4 starter he'd presumably be available in the pen for Games 6-7.

Only 5 games in the DS round. We would need a 4th starter in the NL DS (not in the AL which has an extra day off), but the point is that if we have the 4th starter so infrequently (once a series) then we should just go ahead and always make that a bullpen game.

I am not sure I want Tanner Banks facing Matt Olson either.

[Callison]

Wheeler hates a day off, so I can't see him skipping a start.

He knows what's best for him, no sense in disturbing his rhythm, but keep his pitch count WAY down. No need for him to go deep into any of the remaining games.

[zambonir]

Yeah I was thinking further ahead but of course we have no idea how the rotation might set up after the DS until it happens.

Last year Ranger's games were pretty much bullpen games even as the third starter, and Sanchez too.

We will probably see Alvarado pretty early if that big lefty pocket comes up. Then you still have Strahm and expect Hoffman and Estevez to get both sides out. Kerkering too, in theory. At the very least they are all better or significantly better than Alvarado or Banks in getting out their opposite numbers.

Inky article today about how Marsh is doing better against LHB (hitting .300 since July I think, though still minimal ABs). I suppose when Hays gets activated it will tell us which way they are leaning for the post-season alignment (I.e. if Stevenson stays they want that extra fielding option, if Clemens stays they just want a lefty PH. Though they could also keep Clemens up to spell the vets and flip them later).

[Jazzhead]

If in the later round(s) when a fourth starter is needed, 5 innings from the combination of Turnbull and Ranger would appear ideal. Start Turnbull for two innings and then bring on the lefty.

[andyb]

If in the later round(s) when a fourth starter is needed, 5 innings from the combination of Turnbull and Ranger would appear ideal. Start Turnbull for two innings and then bring on the lefty.

I was hoping to see Turnbull get in a AAA this week but it seems pretty unlikely the Phillies would include him on a playoff roster without rehab.

I am just fine getting 3-4 innings intentionally from Ranger if that lets him have some additional 1-inning outings around that. Our trust circle of relievers will get taxed in the playoffs and expanding it by one would be good. Right now I trust Estevez, Hoffman, Strahm, Kerkering, and Alvarado. Ruiz and Banks only if I have to. Using only 3 starters would have Ranger as a 2-inning weapon to get us through the 5th inning to get to that back end of relievers. The 12th arm (Lazar, Marte, or Allard) is only there in case we are losing.

[zambonir]

Turnbull is supposed to pitch two innings in Allentown tomorrow, and then sim games. He could certainly be ready by October 5. But I don't think we have any idea what he actually is (i.e. better than Lazar. Let alone Ruiz). He hasn't pitched since June 26 and he had a 4.26 ERA and 1.421 WHIP as a reliever. Lasted just 3 innings in the one start he made where he got injured. The relief starts are still very SSS, but the guy who pitched for the Phillies in April, you just can't assume he exists in any context. I'd go with someone they have a better feel for in the NLDS and hold Turnbull in reserve. I'm not rushing to use him as an opener or the first arm behind Ranger in any case.

[zambonir]

I prefer eating before or after or bringing a hoagie anyway (only CBP allows that tho).

Aramark workers to strike at South Philly sports stadiums on Monday

[Aquapong]

This is kind of concerning that we seem to be fading as other teams are surging.

[Philsmania]

This is kind of concerning that we seem to be fading as other teams are surging.

Like I said in the other thread, going back to a week ago Friday, they played ten straight games with a Postseason-like atmosphere and their record is 4-6. Speaking for myself, I am not instilled with confidence for a long October run.

It would take a spectacular collapse to blow the division but should we worry about losing the first-round bye?

[zambonir]

Based on what historical evidence?