2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[EastFallowfield]

presale? I'm seeing Thursday.

Yes, the mets site i looked at said today but that means thursday cause mets fans are always in the wrong

[andyb]

I think we are starting to see how the Phillies want to approach the postseason and that is not necessarily eliminating their aggressiveness. Obviously they want to swing at strikes and take balls. But they don't want to limit that aggressiveness.

So I think we are seeing other parts of the lineup do things like run more (Stott and Turner and Marsh) and bunt more (mainly Rojas). We are going to let the big boys continue to be aggressive (1-5 in the lineup) and do more small ball everywhere else.

[VoteForKalas]

I think you're right, they believe the big guns will produce more if they remain aggressive and that they signed these players because of that production.

These are not the 1993 Phillies even if I wish they would operate more that way.

I'm confident in the pitching, but I suspect unfortunately that the bats may let us down again this playoff run. I hope I'm wrong.

[zambonir]

Somebody's bats always do. My big fear has always been that we're the Braves this time.

I think when this team is not aggressive - both at the plate and on the bases - they are generally worse. There's aggressive and then there's overally aggressive. And then there's passive.

What we've seen in the past week is a team that has every chance to win a 2-1 game. If more of those games are at home than on the road they likely go better.

True for every team, but scoring first seems to be everything for both the offense and the pitching.

[andyb]

Our aggressiveness on the bases SHOULD have at least tied up that Mets game against Diaz if we had not had the bad luck of the throw to third hitting the base and popping straight up.

The Phillies appear to want to do more of that small ball now that they are getting close to the postseason. It does not always work, but it seems to be the strategy of how they want to play, especially with the non power part of the lineup.

[Aquapong]

Tickets on Stubhub for the NLDS are already $350+ for even the upper levels. NLCS is a little more, but then it really jumps for the WS.

They also have WC round tickets, but that would be an epic disaster if we didn't clinch a first round bye. With the tiebreaker over the Brewers, I believe our magic number for a first round bye is 2.

[Austinfan]

They don't have to be passive, but there is a golden mean.
Schwarber is more like Schmidt and Thome, trades Ks for HRs, but draws a lot of walks when he's focused b/c he doesn't chase.
Harper should emulate them. He intimidates pitchers so let them fall behind and make a mistake.

It comes down to being aggressive with "your pitch," not the "pitcher's pitch." That is, know your hit zone and attack anything in it, but take anything else until you get to 2 strikes.

Catellanos is a good example, when he lays off the low and away breaking ball, he gets ahead, pitchers throw him balls over the plate and he's a good hitter. When he chases, he falls behind in the count and is in trouble.

Turner has gotten away with being undisciplined, but in a few years, as he loses bat speed, he may fall off the cliff if he doesn't change his approach.

[zambonir]

Nick has a .360 AB on first piches. and a .271 BA when he swings at the 1st pitch. A .221 BA when he takes it. He also thrives on 0-1 and 1-1 counts. Just not with two strikes.

Harper has a .337 BA on first pitches and his numbers are virtually the same in terms of swinging/taking 1st pitch (.289/.281).

The whole thing is a bit overblown in my opinion. They shouldn't chase. They also shouldn't take hittable pitches, or make errors. And pitchers shouldn't walk guys. They're all going to happen, just a question of how much or how little.

It comes down to being aggressive with "your pitch," not the "pitcher's pitch." That is, know your hit zone and attack anything in it, but take anything else until you get to 2 strikes.

This sounds like the exact thing the hitting coaches teach. But not everyone can execute that in the moment or all the time.

[Aquapong]

Poor Pache…even the Fish dfa’d him.

[David_Criss]

Bulllpen game today ie Banks and Walker. How do the final tune up games look? Do we get to see Turnbull start one of the final games as a test to see if he is ready for the playoff roster? Hoping we see Hays, too. I just can't imagine any good reason why Walker would make the post season roster over an extra bat or pinch runner possibility.

[andyb]

I doubt we would see Turnbull until the NLCS if at all. He pitched 2 innings Sunday so on rest alone he probably could not pitch until Thursday or Friday at the earliest. Most likely he gets a few simulated games in Clearwater and they evaluate his stuff for 10 days. The 7-game series staff will most likely have 13 pitchers too as opposed to 12, so more opportunity later.

Hays back for Stevenson today. Wilson is really the best hitter among the three bench options they looked at so they were choosing Clemens vs Stevenson for the last left-handed spot. Stevenson did really look overmatched against some velocity the last few times out.

This likely means the biggest lineup choice for the playoffs will be Hays vs Rojas against right-handed pitching. Assumption is probably we'll see mostly Rojas though I imagine they'll give Hays every chance in the next 5 games to show he can handle more.

[zambonir]

The beat writers still have Walker listed as the 12th pitcher pretty consistently. And also think they might go with 12 in the longer series. I think Walker still gets the nod as the mop-up guy. If they go to 13 for NLCS then Lazar (or Turnbull if he's ready, or Gilbert) could slot in ahead of him.

Last year Lorenzen (the 12th guy) pitched 1 inning in a 10-2 NLDS win and 1 inning in 5-1 NLCS loss. The 13th guy, Walker, pitched not at all. Wheeler made one relief appearance in NLCS.

In 2022 the 12th and 13th guys were Kyle Gibson (2 appearances) and Nick Nelson (1 appearance). Ranger and Thor both made two relief appearances.

No matter how many arms you carry they are pretty negligible roles. If anything there is more pressure on Banks and Ruiz because we can't count on the #3 or #4 starters to be available in relief (though neither Falter nor Sanchez pitched out of the pen in '22 and '23, not that we would have wanted them to).

I imagine we'll see a lot of Hays this weekend but I still wouldn't start playing him against RHP regularly.

The roster this week doesn't have to be the same as the playoff roster either of course. I do think Clemens is the better bat, but if their thinking also involves defense and two-for-one moves Stevenson isn't necessarily done.

[xogfog]

Right now the Phillies are tied in the loss column with the Yankees and one game behind the Dodgers, The remaining schedules for all three teams is:

Phillies - 2 vs. Cubs, 3 @ Nationals
Dodgers - 3 vs. Padres, 3 @ Rockies
Yankees 3 vs. Orioles, 3 @ Pirates

Phillies own the tiebreaker vs. the Dodgers but the Yankees have the tiebreaker vs. the Phillies, so we need to finish at least even with the Dodgers and a game ahead of the Yankees for home field for the whole shootin' match, so I hope the Phillies don't take their pedal off the gas and win out because I think the Dodgers and Yankees could easily lose one of their final games.

[andyb]

Walker will get a chance to pitch a few innings tonight. If it goes poorly he won't get close to the playoff roster. He really has not had a meaningful inning of late when you consider the lead the Phillies had in the division. They had time to experiment. They just won't do that in the playoffs.

Walker, Allard, and Gilbert are the last 3 pitchers on the current 14-man staff. My guess is the Phillies like Lazar better than all of them. They just had to do his roster move because he had options and they needed to shuffle the staff. As of now he is the 12th pitcher. Mercado might even be number 13 over Walker and Allard. Hard to know what they think of Gilbert as well.

[andyb]

I imagine we'll see a lot of Hays this weekend but I still wouldn't start playing him against RHP regularly.

If they want to see what he can do we will see Hays start against both this week. To figure out what to do in the playoffs the team needs to try things. They decided today they prefer Rojas defensively over Stevenson against RHP. One box checked.

They just have not decided about Hays yet but they sure wanted him to play every day when they got him.

[xogfog]

I don't think they wanted Hays to play everyday, they wanted him as a right handed platoon for Marsh.

[andyb]

I don't think they wanted Hays to play everyday, they wanted him as a right handed platoon for Marsh.

The trade was made with the hope that Hays could play every day:
https://www.mlb.com/news/austin-hays-traded-to-phillies

“I do not see him as a platoon, to tell you the truth,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “This guy was an All-Star last year. And for whatever reason, I don’t know Baltimore’s situation, but he wasn’t playing every single day. But I think that maybe affected his numbers a little bit. I want to see what we have here.”

Now he has not played well against RHP and obviously has been hurt recently. This gives them excuses to platoon now on stamina alone. But they wanted an every day player and thought they got a guy inexpensively that killed lefties and could give them an adequate 700+ OPS against righties like he did in 2023. It has not worked out, but that is what they wanted.

[zambonir]

Lazar is definitely the logical choice for the best possible reliever. But that's not really the role. It's either "guy who can pitch in an unwinnable game" or "guy who can pitch in 12th inning and beyond." They have repeatedly chosen Walker over both the best possible reliever and over other fringe starters/long men, and the games still weren't unimportant (if we do fail to secure the first seed it will be one reason why). Their actions just suggest they still feel some loyalty to Walker (and his potential comeback/future next year due to the $) so long as the role isn't meaningful. And I assume the writers who are in the clubhouse and talking to Thomson every day sense that.

And Mercado was just as bad as everyone else, in either role. Gilbert's a bit of a mystery, he's the one holding Lazar's spot really.

It seems like the Phillies weren't looking for an everyday LF but when Hays became available they were intrigued by the idea that he could do it. Plus, the price was right. He definitely got the playing time (and wasn't good enough to justify it). The good news is things wouldn't be that different/better if they'd gotten Lane Thomas or Pham or Dylan Carlson or whomever else. The bigger question might be who's better, Hays or Wilson (if Hays isn't really back to full strength/timing)?

[andyb]

And Mercado was just as bad as everyone else, in either role. Gilbert's a bit of a mystery, he's the one holding Lazar's spot really.

Mercado had a 2.70 ERA since he was demoted to the minors. You are focusing too much on small sample size stats. Lazar also showed he could give you a mediocre 2+ innings the other time out so length is not really an issue.

It is the quality of their stuff and their current pitching form. Walker is the worst of the four (including Gilbert). Maybe they want an extra LHP but clearly to me they want the best current pitcher as none of them are certain to give them length and frankly in a short series they are probably using Ranger for that out of the bullpen if they have to..

[zambonir]

Isn't "since he was demoted to the minors" itself a small sample size? He was just back up on August 28 and and gave up 4 runs in 1 1/3. Of course that was the game in which Tai allowed 6.

I suppose tomorrow or Friday will offer some more clues. They certainly aren't going to put anyone on the October 5 playoff roster who hasn't pitched in a real game since September 22, and I imagine that's true of anyone who hasn't pitched in the major leagues for a month as well. If they swap Allard or Gilbert for someone in the next few days there's probably no one else in the mix besides that pitcher and Lazar, who can come up for what, one game?