2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[VoteForKalas]

I think if they fall short again this season, they will need to revamp some of the roster toward youth and affordable contracts to stay competiitve and extend their window.

[flyers19rw]

Just to illustrate how injuries to pitchers have cut some clubs to the bone, here's a great article on it;

'Self-fulfilling prophecy.' The Dodgers' role in MLB's pitching injury epidemic

It seems that the Phillies have been relatively fortunate so far this season. IDK what Cotham has been doing to keep the arms in good shape but it has been successful. Middleton needs to do whatever he can to keep the Phillies' pitching instruction intact. These guys are the backbone of the franchise.

[Philsmania]

Evolution did not intend the human arm to pitch a baseball, let alone pitch it with increased velocity and spin.

[zambonir]

I mean, I think they will because the pressure will be too great to do otherwise, and because they could easily regress to an 84 or even 81 win team if enough things go wrong with enough of our aging players (or our young players for that matter). I'm not sure the actual October result should be the reason, or an October result is something that can be corrected.

Just look at the Dodgers and Braves.

Dodgers NL West champs 11 of 12 years, only one championship out of three WS trips and that was in the COVID year. Made the NLCS the year they didn't win the division.

Braves 6 straight NL East titles and only one championship, didn't even get past the NLDS four of the other five times, likely not going to win a seventh.

Of course one championship, as well as being generally more talented and succcesful franchises, makes it easier to be patient. But they haven't stood pat either.

In truth even if the Phillies had won 110 games and even if there's a parade, your argument stands. There should and will be changes, and possibly involving younger players, not just the obvious dream moves (such as offloading Casty or bringing in a back-up catcher who can play 62 games).

[zambonir]

Well, Paul Hagen thought the most important story of the day was "Is it good to have the bye, and what to the Phillies plan to do with it after they lock it up?" (He also does talk about what the headline says though, that they do in fact want to push for that top seed and best record.)

What is Rob Thomson's focus the final three weeks of Phillies' season?

[Austinfan]

The younger player moves are probably a year away.
Next year Lehigh and Reading
Lehigh: Marchan (25), Kennedy (26), Kemp (25), Crawford (21), Abel (23), Painter (22), Johnson (26), McGarry (26), Mercado (26)
Reading: Ricketts (25), Anthony (24), Miller (21), Ricones (24), Chace (22), Castellano (24), Cabrera (23), McGowan (25), Steward (24), Pipkin (25), Walling (25), Pan (23).

[zambonir]

I'm not talking about younger players coming on, I'm talking about someone maybe going out. Nick C is probably still less tradeable than we'd like (and also still more highly valued than the Phillies if we'd like) and Schwarber probably finishes out his deal at DH. So I seriously doubt that Hays, Rojas and Marsh are all here next year if they don't just "run it back" and while the obvious/easy thing is to just non-tender Hays it's not hard to imagine them making a bigger move that leaves Rojas back in AAA or on the bench, or puts Marsh on another team (with or without Hays).

It also feels unlikely that Marchán can actually be the back-up who significantly reduces JT's playing time (though he could still be the back-up).

[Jazzhead]

I would love to see Marchan as JT's backup, even to the extent of spelling JT to play first from time to time (a skill which will prolong his career down the line). I think Marchan can be a starting MLB catcher - if only he could avoid injury.

[zambonir]

Yeah I think the jury is still out on whether he is actually starting caliber in MLB (I wouldn't read any more into his 2024 performance than we could into Stubbs' 2022) but he also can't seem to stay healthy. He'll get his chance next year and if he holds up on both counts he can be an 81-game catcher in 2026 (whether with an extended JT or someone else). I think that's the ceiling for now (and that's still a good ceiling, and a "starting catcher" for most teams these days anyway).

But the Phillies still can't really use JT at 1B or DH in 2025, nor is he a good enough hitter at this point that they necessarily should need or want to.

[Aquapong]

Tyler Gilbert up, Seth Johnson down.

[zambonir]

Spinning the reliever wheel. Wonder if Allard is coming back for Saturday or if they think Gilbert and Walker can actually anchor a bullpen game (however tenuously).

[Aquapong]

I think JT has already started the normal age related decline. He’s been passed stats wise by quite a few players this year. I’d let him ride out his current contract and have him bring along Marchan. Maybe Marchan isn’t the guy, but at this point we need to give him the chance to see.

[Austinfan]

Tait is the guy, but he's 3 years away.

[andyb]

Cycling the last spot in the bullpen is just going to be a day to day thing the rest of the year.

No game day thread? I'm actually near Philly today.

[zambonir]

Unless another team swoops in with a crazy free-market 3-5 year deal I imagine the Phillies will re-sign JT at a number that reflects both age and reduced playing time (while still being either higher or longer than we'd like depending on the AAV). If this pitching staff continues to perform next year like it has this year it's unlikely they will want to change course even if the bat and defense is only average.

Cycling the last spot in the bullpen is just going to be a day to day thing the rest of the year.

Well, it's not really the last spot in the bullpen, it's the extra spot in the rotation (with Walker actually the last guy in the bullpen). So it's rotating between starters and relievers, the question is will it do so again for Allard.

[Jazzhead]

A singular moment tonight at CBP - the Phans chanting Buddy Kennedy's name in the ninth, on every pitch until he drew the walk that loaded 'em, and then switching over to KODY KODY to midwife the walkoff. You had to be there, folks. Kody said it gave him chills.

[EastFallowfield]

It did come across on the TV, but of course it would have been better to be there.

[Jazzhead]

t did come across on the TV, but of course it would have been better to be there.

It's funny how perceptions differ when watching a game at home vs. seeing it at the park. When Harper in the bottom of the ninth hit his big fly that clanked off the top of the wall, TV viewers could see that he thought he'd hit it out and lingered to savor the moment, limiting the result to a long single. But Mrs. Jazz and I were following the flight of the ball and knew the Rays had a good arm in center, and were grateful that Bryce hadn't been hyper-aggressive and been thrown out at second!

[Callison]

Anyone else concerned that the first two pitchers the Phils brought up got shelled?

Allard may only be pitching on borrowed time, but he didn't get shelled.

[zambonir]

Nothing to really be concerned about as long as they don't pitch again! One guy is barely out of AA and the other is just AAAA cannon fodder, as is Allard ultimately (unfortunately that also describes Walker presently).

It is pretty easy to say now that the Phillies were foolish to send Allard back down but at the time it was a bit more complicated (he'd come up for a spot start as the #6 and then got swapped for a reliever. He wouldn't have been available to take Walker's spot in the rotation that week even if they'd been ready to do it).

His WHIP and FIP say the shelling is just a matter of time (as you say) but hopefully there's some luck left.