2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[zambonir]

Johnson is on the 40 already, it's the 26 he needs to get on. So it has to be Lazar or DFAing Taijuan. Or putting JT on the IL (unless he's available today in which case it will just be Garcia).

The goal is to get these banged-up guys more days off, or even almost a full week off, two weeks from now. Deplete the roster even more than it already is now and they could still be playing meaningful games in the last series.

[zambonir]

Must be a tough decision because usually the team Twitter has posted the line-up by now (should still be any minute tho).

[Lucky_Beagle]

They haven't played Kennedy enough to prevent him from being sent back down, right?

[zambonir]

I suppose that is an option if they want to go a position player short and/or expect Bohm back when eligible. OTOH he might be starting today!

[Callison]

Concerning the announcing, the Phils should take better care to hire announcers that don't have conflicts of interest. IMHO, McCarthy is easily replaced, but why should this come up in the closing weeks of a competitive season? Kruk, otoh, can not be replaced and I like his game banter the most. I've come to like and repect Amaro. I finally got to like him when he recently observed that Stott's swing was getting better and so was his pitch selection. But Stott had been making a lotta outs and had not looked at all good. Then Stott had few good games. He has a keen eye for the game.

His observation on Nola yesterday was that Nola's sinker was getting too much plate. Well, sinker or not, a lot of Nola's pitches found too much plate. The Phils must be all over Nola about his inconsistency, especially for away games. If I were pitching coach, next away game I would warm Nola up a lot longer. There's gotta be a better approach get him more consistent. IMHO, that is the biggest problem the Phils face.

[Austinfan]

Nola has thrown a lot of innings, both this season and career.
He isn't a horse like Wheeler.

I've notice when arm fatigue sets in, command goes before velocity, probably b/c pitchers subconsciously compensate, which throws their mechanics off.

I'd find a way to get him more rest the next few weeks and get him primed for the playoffs.

[zambonir]

The Phillies pride themselves on treating their employees well (though last I'm aware, technically, McCarthy doesn't work for them, though they own a piece of the network anyway). Day by day and hour for hour they also probably don't pay as well as a CBS NFL gig. And of course the team and MLB has no compunction about not letting them work when a national broadcast gets precedent. I wonder if McCarthy is on salary or if it's per game (pretty sure all the color guys have contracts that stipulates a set # of games, as well as studio work in Ben and Ruben's case).

Most of us remember when there were six or seven different announcers spread out over 9 innings on both radio and TV, and even now the TV color guys are still only part-time to begin with, so a few games a year with subs is no big deal. And in this case, kind of welcome. I'm happy to hear Frantzke on TV for fun and don't mind Murphy on the radio either.

[zambonir]

When it rains it pours. Garcia also starting today.

Prior to today’s game against the Miami Marlins, the Phillies recalled RHP Seth Johnson from Lehigh Valley (AAA). To make room on the 28-man roster, INF Edmundo Sosa was placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to 9/7) with back spasms.

Johnson will wear No. 51.

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) September 8, 2024

[Austinfan]

Stubbs did look like he was hurt on the play where he ended up at third.

[Aquapong]

The throw to second after the first error hit him in the head as he was sliding.

[Philsmania]

Concerning the announcing, the Phils should take better care to hire announcers that don't have conflicts of interest. IMHO, McCarthy is easily replaced, but why should this come up in the closing weeks of a competitive season? Kruk, otoh, can not be replaced and I like his game banter the most. I've come to like and repect Amaro. I finally got to like him when he recently observed that Stott's swing was getting better and so was his pitch selection. But Stott had been making a lotta outs and had not looked at all good. Then Stott had few good games. He has a keen eye for the game.

His observation on Nola yesterday was that Nola's sinker was getting too much plate. Well, sinker or not, a lot of Nola's pitches found too much plate. The Phils must be all over Nola about his inconsistency, especially for away games. If I were pitching coach, next away game I would warm Nola up a lot longer. There's gotta be a better approach get him more consistent. IMHO, that is the biggest problem the Phils face.

For much of the time since McCarthy became the Phillies TV face and voice, he was much maligned. That may have been because his color man pairings just weren't right. For example, he and Wheels always seemed to be trying to outsmart each other while he and Sarge always tried to "outclown" each other. But, he does have good on-air chemistry with Kruk and Amaro which has made him better and has helped him to finally gain acceptance with the fanbase.

As for Nola, a quick review of his career month-by-month numbers on Baseball Reference shows that he usually struggles in September. It's actually been his worst month.

[bkox]

Stubbs did look like he was hurt on the play where he ended up at third.

He got hit on the head with a backswing like an inning later and didnt look good.

[Aquapong]

I was surprised he didn’t come after getting hit in the head by the ball and then on the backswing. He looked dazed.

[zambonir]

As for Nola, a quick review of his career month-by-month numbers on Baseball Reference shows that he usually struggles in September. It's actually been his worst month.

But it's about the same as June. And interestingly June and September are also his highest K/9 months.

Without having nine seasons of equivalent October performance, we'll never really know if he wears down late or if it's all just noise (yes his numbers were also worse deeper into the playoffs but many more variables at play there too).

And - at least these days - the team has plenty of data about his stuff and velocity to measure fatigue. Unfortunately, they did want to get him and the other three starters more rest. Even Wheeler. But Walker and the equally awful multiple other #5 ad #6 options have closed off that option.

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies are in a good position with 3 weeks left in the season. 19 games; 9 at home and 10 away.

The have a 7.0 game lead over the Braves and Mets in the NL East. The currently are one of the two top teams in the NL

Dodgers 85-57*
Phillies 85-58
Brewers 82-61
*does not include today’s result

[zambonir]

I'm viewing it as a four-game lead over Milwaukee on the assumption that they will win at least one game against them. Of course it could still tighten between now and then.

And obviously it could all still get tight, especially for the seeding, and even the division given the unexpected rise of the Mets. But they've picked up two games in that race since August 24th.

[dcsman]

I think the real race is for best record in the NL. They can't let off the gas yet.

[zambonir]

Obviously that would be nice, but not as important as no bye at all IMO. Tiny sample in this current playoff format, the team with home field has yet to win the NLCS (and didn't win ALCS last year). Of course at that point what you really want is the best record in baseball

Also - while this is out of their control and possibly a toss-up in any case - home field might not be as important as the bracket. First seed plays either San Diego or Arizona. Second seed plays either Milwaukee or Mets/Braves. There's no re-seeding. If it's the Braves and they get an upset in the first round (NL Central champ has lost to the #6 both years) would we be happy or scared? Or would Arizona or any West Coast travel be worse? (That's the way I lean I guess, which requires the first seed.)

They are certainly not going to start pitching guys on short rest or overusing the bullpen. In the end if they miss the top seed or even the bye entirely, that will mathematically be due to the 5th starter. But it hasn't put them in that position yet (probably because all the other teams have bad 4th and 5th starters). It will be interesting to see how they handle it once they clinch the division and/or comfortable have #2 in hand. Top seed race could go down to the final weekend and we have a whole lot of guys who look like they could need a full week off.

[Philsmania]

Phillies are in a good position with 3 weeks left in the season. 19 games; 9 at home and 10 away.

The have a 7.0 game lead over the Braves and Mets in the NL East. The currently are one of the two top teams in the NL

Dodgers 85-57*
Phillies 85-58
Brewers 82-61
*does not include today’s result

I have a little bit of a different take. Yes, the Phillies are in great shape for the division, good shape for getting a bye. But, I do think that sometimes this team has trouble delivering a proverbial knockout punch. In late September of 2022, the Phillies kind of let the Brewers back into things by going on a late-month five game losing streak but got some serious help from the Marlins who took three out of four from the Brewers in Milwaukee during the season's final weekend. In 2022, they were up 2-1 in the WS after completely routing the Astros in Game 1 and, you would think, having them back on their heels. There was the NLCS last season. Now, I look at the last two games. The Phillies had an awesome start to this road trip--6-0. But, they close it out with two "should have mailed it in" efforts in the last two games against a bad Marlins team that they lost by a combined score of 19-6, reminiscent of their mid-July-to mid-August swoon. If the Phillies instead took care of business against those teams, we would be talking about a nine game division lead and a one-game best record in baseball lead. We still play the Mets seven times this month. Let's hope we are not letting them hang around the way they let us hang around in 2007.

[zambonir]

Remember when John MIddleton said he had to fire Gabe Kapler because both his teams got worse in September?

I think all of the above is still pretty random. It was not a lack of killer instinct or knockout punch. It was 10 different things every time. And arguably in 2022 the two examples are related, i.e. the Phillies were lucky they got into the playoffs and were a simple product of both hot and cold streaks. To me in the end the clearly better team won the World Series, and yet, if not for that no-hitter....

The Arizona series was more frustrating because I think they got out played and outmanaged once it was a series, and the DBacks weren't a better team.

But also, just as it is extremely hard to win a championship it is extremely hard to play as if everything is on the line if it isn't actually on the line, which is why it's also always hard to sweep. In 2022 that certainly wasn't the issue. I think the Phillies were just barely surviving and desperate to make the playoffs, that wasn't complacency or lack of killer instinct, it was just a normal string of wins and losses (and there is almost always an accompanying flop by another team, including the Brewers right now really).

The Mets went 5-12 to blow that lead in 2007. Obviously the Phillies can't do that.

But they are losing some games because of bad starting pitching and injured players, not lack of killer instinct. It's unfortunate Nola had a bad outing but he'd had four brilliant ones before then. As for the #5 spot, that's also the difference between now and 2022. With no Thor that team doesn't make the playoffs. This team still hasn't lost any ground despite the failings of Walker et. al

I guess I'm not really expecting a successful October run to begin with, and maybe never did. Just feels like it's someone else's turn to be the hot team and steal a short series. And at this rate we're also going to see a huge list of after-season surgeries. But I guess you could also say that after the last two years it's time for one of the top 2 NL teams to actually get to the World Series, so it may as well be our team.