2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[andyb]

Phillips is just mediocre. First time around the league he surprised some people, but his stuff is average at best and without plus command he just can't survive up here. Fatigue could be an issue too, but are we really surprised when a guy with a 5.27 ERA in AAA (where presumably fatigue was not an issue) is worse in the majors. Walker is just better than Phillips and that is really not saying much.

[zambonir]

Yeah the whole idea that Walker can spend another 4 months on a weighted ball program to get back his velocity seems suspect. Seems more likely he has to become a different pitcher, or he's done. Maybe the pen will actually end up being his path, if he can throw harder in short outings and fix the splitter. Plenty of veteran starters have done it.

[David_Criss]

Regarding the fifth starter and hindsight is 20-20, but optioning Allard wasn't the best move. With Turnbull still injured, Allard is the only option now. Seth Johnson would be good, but do they want to blow an option year for 2 or 3 starts? I think it is worth it. Mercado, Phillips, Walker = no, no and no. Put me in the call up Johnson camp.

[zambonir]

I just think that tells you how little they thought of Allard. But also how much they intended to just stick with Walker over both him and Phillips in the first place. They also needed to keep Allard on a starter's schedule, and didn't want a dead spot in the bullpen. Not really a big deal to cover this one start, or all of them really. Still think they are also not bringing a "win at all costs" mentality to the seed. Walker's time back in the rotation has hurt the Phillies exactly not at all, in both the NL East and overall NL race. Had he been better they'd have more of a leg up in the latter. But all the other teams have their issues too.

[Austinfan]

This season it's about 3-4 starts and then "never more" come the playoffs.

Next season money will be an issue, probably have to ride Walker or someone they pick up off the scrap heap for #5, b/c once they extend Ranger they won't be able to afford a real SP.

However, if Painter, Abel, and Johnson start the season in Lehigh, whoever steps up has a shot at that spot if Walker is as bad as this season.

The wildcard is Robinson Pina:

Pina, Robinson 6’5 225 [25] $50K
His fastball has picked up a few ticks of late and it’s now averaging just below 93 mph, t95. He throws it with good life up in the zone thanks to high spin rates. His breaking ball has also improved and his splitter took a nice step forward as well. His fastball has sinker movement and his changeup has splitter spin. Clean and easy delivery and an overall improvement in his fastball command.

They wouldn't be asking him to be good, just better than bad alternatives.
13 BB, 107 K in Reading, 3 solid starts in Lehigh.

[Aquapong]

What’s up with Turnbull? He’s been on the IL quite a while now.

[zambonir]

He's hurt

But that's it really. Unfortunately, a permanent status for him too. I think he had a couple of legit setbacks. And they never intended to make him a starter again. At this point he'd be behind Ruiz and Banks as a bullpen arm, and maybe even Walker for that final no-leverage spot (Lorenzen last year). So now they are probably just running out the clock, though if he can actually start his rehab assignment he might turn up later in the month. Or he might not get off the 60 at all.

once they extend Ranger they won't be able to afford a real SP.

Still a pretty big assumption IMO. They had interest in Crochet and they might have interest in other guys. Due diligence, but also means they know losing Ranger, dumping Walker and even trading Sanchez (if Ranger is extended) are all possibilities.

[Callison]

No idea what's wrong with Phillips. Nothing even mediocre about him yesterday. The Phils need to take a chance on somebody else, cause Phillips isn't ready. Looked defenseless on the mound.

Allard has 10 innings of recent solid performance to show his doubters. Amazing the Phils thought so little of that. Some of the guys pitching in front of him don't have 1/3 of that. He may never pitch so well again, but he's earned another opportunity. You're as good as your last outing says you are.

Clemens' last outing says he's real good.

Schwarber's last outing says he played his personal best ever and set records.

Sosa hit some .325 for a while and some of us are disappointed he's not doing more than .265. Sure came up big in the ninth yesterday, though.

Hays injured again, so we'll have to reset his hitting eye again and we won't know how consistent he can be for another couple weeks. Provided he doesn't get injured again. Why not give Wilson a few starts in a row? Performance should count for more on the Phils.

[zambonir]

Well, there we go.

Prior to today’s game, the Phillies selected the contract of RHP Nick Nelson from Lehigh Valley (AAA). To make room on the 26-man roster, RHP Tyler Phillips was optioned to Lehigh Valley, and to make room on the 40-man roster, RHP Michael Rucker was designated for assignment.

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) September 4, 2024

I don't think Hays is injured. "Under the weather" is what they said.

[andyb]

I guess they decided Phillips' option was not worth it for next year. Given that it will probably be difficult to keep him on the 40-man roster all offseason. No reason to do a DFA now (he could still be in the mix for a late season start), but it is just hard to keep a 40-man spot for a pitcher who has to make the team out of Spring Training because he is out of options and is not a reliever.

[andyb]

Why not give Wilson a few starts in a row?

I certainly expect Wilson in the lineup today. Even if Hays is back. Bohm is still hurting and Bryce might need a day after that awkward swing last night. Day game after a night game. Probably lots of backups in there for both teams. This is probably a JT rest day as well.

[zambonir]

Overall I want to see more Rojas and less Hays not more Wilson and less Hays. But for sure, he could play 3B today. Guess we'll see how Casty's feeling given his 162 goal.

Fangraphs has Phillies with an 82.3% likelihood of a playoff bye. Brewers just 19% (Braves still has a small chance). These things can't be counted on but it's entirely possible our front office has their own take on how likely or not likely it is, and how hard they have to go after it.

NL East is 96.1%. Bettter than the Dodgers' chances in the West (they lead by 5.5, we lead by 7).

[andyb]

As expected we do have Wilson in the lineup today, though for Casty in RF. Bryce is back in there, but Casty is at DH to keep the streak going. Defensively challenged OF of Schwarber, Marsh, and Wilson. Clemens earns the start for Bohm at 3B with his big hit last night. JT plays because it is really a mediocre lineup without him.

[Austinfan]

They need to sit Harper for a week or two before the playoffs and get him healthy.

[bkox]

They need to sit Harper for a week or two before the playoffs and get him healthy.

if they sit Harper, then you may be looking at an extra round of the playoffs. Remember we are still fighting for the bye unless we dont think its important

[andyb]

2 vs 3 is HUGELY IMPORTANT. Homefield in the second series. Automatic win in the first series. Likely avoiding the Dodgers until the NLCS. Winning 2 in a row at home in a short first series is no guarantee (see NLCS last year).

[zambonir]

It's pretty important, but as I just posted, we're still heavily favored. They don't need to rack up 16 wins in September, 13 or 14 will probably do it unless the Brewers out perform them by a lot.

And they've turned things around in the past three weeks with none of this year's actual All-Stars hitting like All-Stars (Harper, Turner, Bohm). I reckon a lot of it is still the pitching, but this team can endure a week with any one hitter missing.

And of course the extremely limited recent history says that no NL team seeded first or second has made it to the NLCS in this format. But I'd rather not put it to the test given the teams who might loom in the wild card (Braves or Dbacks/Padres). A bit tougher than Miami last year. Or the Phillies in '22 for that matter.

Also the #3 seed - which the Phillies would be - has never won a Wild Card series in the two-year sample. Both the Central champs, once to us.

I think there is still legit debate whether the rest is good for a team. But having to play and win more games isn't really good.

[andyb]

We might be heavily favored by some flawed statistical model, but we are only 1.5 games up on them with 3 games upcoming. That does not seem like an 82%-18% ratio even if the schedule might appear to favor us.

[zambonir]

I'm sure the model might project us to take two from the Brewers (especially since we swept them at home). Plus the tie-breaker. I realize the model isn't everything (or anything) but I'm sure the team has its own vision of what it is going to take. They have not really treated any game or series as must-win other than this last one with the Braves, though Thomson certainly didn't throw in the towel last night (of course he also probably wanted to win back home very badly, wonder how many relatives were there).

Regardless, I don't think any team treats a seed race quite the same as a division race, or the same as a race to be in or out of the playoffs entirely. If the division was close, maybe Bohm plays sooner. Or maybe just the opposite, they don't play short for 5-6 games.

[RolenRules]

Putting this here rather than in today's game thread, in part because I recorded the game and am a few innings behind:

In the telecast, stated that Bohm has a left hand strain. Amaro said staff told him Bohm would be playing if this were a playoff situation, but they're being cautious.

Also, Harper pulled after being hit by pitch on left elbow.

So, it seems Phils are erring on the side of caution and not treating every game as a must win situation. Hopefully Bohm and Harper can get back soon at as close to 100% as is possible given the long season.