2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

zambonir 2024-09-02 02:47:56 UTC #182

And we play them too.

I think what the agita about the Phillies second-half performance misses is that every team is especially flawed in some way. As the broadcast mentioned tonight this is looking like the first year without either a 100-win or .600 WP team in a very long time. Phillies have probably been luckier than most injury-wise but it's not like they haven't had injuries. We got spoiled by how well they endured Turner's absence, but the Suarez/Wheeler/Harper/Schwarber injuries were also big pivot points for this season, and only Wheeler seems unaffected (and his was minor to begin with).

When the playoffs come, it's still a lot of luck and timing and match-ups.

Callison 2024-09-02 18:34:33 UTC #183

Some people think baseball is too slow, that there's never enough happening, etc. and there are games like that. OTOH, you get Braves and Phils games, talented rivals with no love lost between them. It's early September, but it feels like October. IMHO, the Braves somehow play their best against the Phils. The catch that Harris made looks like an AI creation. (Hays is still coming back from injury and some are impatient with him - incredible bad luck for a player coming back slowly.) I'm not missing Strider, but the remaining Braves' starters are plenty strong. That Schwellenbach nearly notched up another W against the Phils. Modest record, but he looks dominant aginst the Phils. IMHO, the Braves will be in the playoffs and they deserve to be. The series could have easily gone the other way. With games like last night, the Phils will never have any trouble selling tickets. Maybe recaptured some of that will to win yesterday.

Jazzhead 2024-09-02 19:51:33 UTC #184

Great game, great series. The bullpen was a key, solid when it needed to be.

I like Austin Hays; who just scalded that ball. For some strange reason he make me think of Pepper Martin or Pete Reiser, or at least how I romanticize them to be. I'm glad he's getting a shot against all kinds of pitching, even as I revere Rojas' defense. Two excellent weapons to have.

zambonir 2024-09-02 20:16:02 UTC #185

I'm still a bit baffled by the Hays thing, but this is Thomson's style. He (and Dombrowski) were wrong about Whit, but right to stick with Casty.

When the Phillies traded for Austin Hays at the deadline, they hoped he could be the everyday solution in left field. So far, though, he’s only 10-for-51 (. 196) with a .501 OPS vs. right-handed pitching compared to 7-for-16 (. 438) with a 1.126 OPS against lefties.

It’s a small sample, but as the Phillies sort their outfield options, it bears watching.

“I want to see more,” Thomson said. “I think he’s held his own, quite frankly. And he’s played very good defense for us. We’ll keep running him out there.”

No harm in giving him some chances but I don't see how he's actually going to turn it around or perform better in the limited time left. So it really seems like more of an indictment of Rojas, in their eyes. They now think his defense isn't worth it, and neither is Marsh's better LF defense. But when it comes down to the narrow margin of error for getting this playoff seed, and for winning in October, I'm still skeptical.

DurhamBull 2024-09-02 22:38:51 UTC #186

JMHO, but I wouldn't read too much into what Thompson says about Hays at this point. I'm sure Thompson hoped for better, but even if he's disappointed, criticizing Hays in the media is unlikely to spur the production they're hoping for.

zambonir 2024-09-02 22:45:10 UTC #187

Well it's more what he does than what he says. Since Hays came back from the IL Rojas has only started three games. Hays has started 8. I also don't think it's Thomson's style to publicly say he's going to keep running him out there and then not do it. Doesn't mean that won't change in a few weeks of course but in my book Rojas should start both games in Toronto, and I doubt he will.

bkox 2024-09-02 23:46:43 UTC #188

Dodgers and Brewers win today

phillychuck 2024-09-02 23:48:01 UTC #189

Boo. C'mon, help us out.

Philsmania 2024-09-03 14:21:47 UTC #190

The Phillies, Dodgers and Brewers are pretty much in a dogfight over both the top seed in the NL and first-round byes. I haven't had the chance to look at the Dodgers' and Brewers' remaining schedules. In the case of the division, it's a good thing the Phillies have a solid lead because while their schedule is fairly challenging from here on out, the Braves and Mets have both easy schedules with the Mets having a ridiculously easy schedule.

EastFallowfield 2024-09-03 14:28:33 UTC #191

Braves site batterypower had a chart of the NL contenders with strength of schedule included.

Mets .509
Brewers .502
Phils .481
Dodgers .477
Braves .476

Philsmania 2024-09-03 14:34:14 UTC #192

Mets schedule is tougher than I had thought. When I last checked a couple of weeks ago, the Mets still had series against both the Rockies and White Sox remaining. All four of those other teams other than us still play the Rockies. Brewers and Mets close out against each other in Milwaukee. Both could have something to play for that weekend. Braves close out against the contending Royals. Dodgers have the privilege of playing the Rockies in Denver while the Phillies play the Nationals in DC.

zambonir 2024-09-03 14:54:07 UTC #193

It is just about time for a magic number thread I'd say (at least for the division).

Phillies can finish the season sub-.500 (12-13) and still get to 93 wins while the Braves would have to go 19-6 (to clinch with tiebreaker). I certainly think and hope they'll do better than that.and might have to avoid the WC round.

Too hard to try and track the Brewers and Dodgers but the Mets will have a lot to say about the former (and we play the the Brewers thrice).

Aquapong 2024-09-04 02:57:11 UTC #194

Allard would probably be the best choice for a fifth starter right now. Unfortunately he’s a day short of being able to come back up before the turn of the 5 spot unless there’s an injury to a pitcher. We may have to see Phillips or Walker take the ball one more time.

LoneStarPhan 2024-09-04 03:02:25 UTC #195

I would say that Walker gets a start over Phillips, but they may decide differently. We did, after all, win the last game Phillips started.

zambonir 2024-09-04 03:05:20 UTC #196

He's the best choice but not necessarily a good choice. He managed to get through a few starts but opponents have an .878 OPS against him, which is presumably why the Phillies didn't consider it a big deal to send him down and lose him for 15 days.

I would just call it a bullpen game. Use an opener, find a slot for Walker, maybe Phillips even gets in there. To me the bigger issue is carrying Phillips indefinitely if you can't use him.

andyb 2024-09-04 04:15:20 UTC #197

That seems the best course. Suck it up and get through one game with Walker and Phillips and the extra man in the bullpen. Question for me is whether they will punt on Walker's option. I think he can only be in the minors for 5 more days though that might be until the end of the AAA season.

Seth Johnson is the call-up option who might do well, but likely would only be a 3-4 inning 80 pitch start as he is on a limit and is not that efficient in most of his starts. Real question is whether the Phillies can knowingly go into a game with long odds thinking Walker and Phillips might give up 6 runs and just be OK with a 30% chance of winning it.

zambonir 2024-09-04 12:44:05 UTC #198

Arguably they have already been doing the 30% chance game! Now we've seen why Walker had such a long leash and we still don't know if Allard (or Johnson or whomever) will be better. But we also saw you can win a bullpen game.

If they really want to preserve Phillips' option they can give him a couple of more chances out of the pen and only make the move on him if they have to. But he'd be taking Lazar's spot in the meantime (assuming Allard comes up) and that's not a better bullpen.

andyb 2024-09-04 12:55:31 UTC #199

That is why I am wondering if they will not bother with Allard. His secondary stats really suggest he has been a little lucky. If they string Phillips along to the point of preserving his option.(which might be September 18th when there are 5 days left in the minor league season) they could just bring Marte up for Phillips and do bullpen games (hopefully in a lower stress environment having clinched the division).

I will note the Brewers 3-game series is pretty important because we are playing for divisional byes potentially. We won the first 3 games so only need one for a tie-breaker, but in my mind that might be a playoff series since the difference between the 2 and 3 seeds is so great these days. Right now Suarez, Wheeler, and Nola are lined up for that series which would seem to be the plan (even though they discussed 6 starters earlier). That extra 6th starter game a little while ago did line up our good starters for both the Braves and the future Brewers series.

zambonir 2024-09-04 13:15:23 UTC #200

I reckon bullpen games are the best way to win every fifth day versus the alternatives, but might cost you a different game or even a playoff game in terms of overall wear to the best relievers. That's always been the real appeal of Walker, the goal wasn't to win half of his starts, but to just not have to tax a lot of more important pitchers. And they were willing to try Phillips or Allard as the 6th to do that too. But can't have 6 if you don't have 5.

It's not a massive problem, but it's also not an easy answer. A couple of losses may well be the difference between 2 and 3, and no point in resting your relievers in mid-September if they end up having to pitch in 2-3 extra games in early October.

But possibly also not worth it to go all-out for a top seed when the division will be all but locked up.

For sure the Brewers series loom large, but the seed race could go down to the final weekend. Last year the Phillies had the luxury of knowing they were the 4th seed and could start Walker, Plassmyer and Nelson on the final weekend while setting the rotation. This year they not only might have meaningful games, but won't know when their first game is. You might have your best starters pitching for the seed and if they get it, great, rest and reset. But if not you get a Game 1 or 2 Wild Card start from Sanchez possibly.

Austinfan 2024-09-04 13:24:58 UTC #201

Phillips is a bit of an enigma, looked great in the shutout game, then went totally into the tank. While that game was an anomaly, so is his total collapse.

Allard was doing it with smoke and mirrors, but given the alternatives . . .

Walker has had a velocity decline the last three years, and now both his FBs are batting practice pitches. The bigger problem is his splitter has gone south, if he had a good splitter to go with a plus slider, he could just use his FBs as "show me" pitches and get by.

Walker, like Castellanos, was a mistake the day he was signed, coming off a career year at age 30, regression should have been expected, instead he was paid based on that season (2.7 WAR). He regressed his first year as a Phillie (FIP rose from 3.65 to 4.53) and has fallen off the cliff his second season.

He'll come to camp, the FB velocity is gone, but if he can regain control of the splitter, can at least be a placeholder at #5 until Painter/Abel/Johnson is ready.