2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[owaistabish]

This week - they can take a chance as the opponents are not other worldly. Might as well give them a rest when you can, and save them for when you will need them most.

[Austinfan]

Harper has been hurting for weeks, and his power has disappeared as a result.
Harper without power is easily replaced.

[andyb]

Harper has an 867 OPS the last 30 days. He is not so easily replaced.

[BostonRoss]

If Bohm and Hays are both back tomorrow, it might be worth giving Harper a day off. Let Clemens play against the RHP.

[zambonir]

He certainly isn't but it's not like they aren't used to doing it. Certainly don't want to see an IL stint or extended break but a few more off-days or a two-day "blow" (as they like to say) might lose you something now but gain you something later.

And it's also not the worst thing to see a little more of Hays, Wilson and Clemens, since the latter two are competing for a spot on the playoff roster.

[zambonir]

As Phillies chase division title, they try to strike balance between wins and...

No real surprises or insights there (Toronto-based writer I presume)

[zambonir]

It should be noted that Harper does not want time off. Says a day or two will just make him stiffer and possibly in more pain, and he might not be wrong. That would probably also be true if he actually went on the IL - how long would it take after returning for him to get hot and on time again?

[bkox]

Mets win
Braves win
Brewers lose
Dodgers losing

[zambonir]

ah, we don't have to include the Mets

[RolenRules]

But they are only a half game behind the Braves

[zambonir]

And when they pass them we can stop including the Braves

Makes it harder to do a magic number thread though.

Brewers and Dodgers both lost.

[andyb]

We do have 7 games with the Mets left and none with the Braves, so the Mets probably have a better statistical chance of overtaking us. If it comes to the last wild card spot and the Braves vs Mets I might root for the Braves. Lesser of two evils.

[zambonir]

You mean emotionally, or competitively? I guess we'll see how I feel after those seven games but the Braves scare me more, especially in a short series. I also dislike them more. Mets are the New York team but their lack of success and the relative rarity of both teams being good at the same time makes it feel like less of a rivalry - and yet it is a better one when it happens (as in '07). A playoff series would be off the hook, if perhaps even more painful to lose.

[Austinfan]

Phillies are going to start Johnson on Sunday.
Painter hitting 98-99 in his rehab. Threw 15 pitches, will throw again Saturday. AFL?
Abel slowly making improvements.

Phillies prospect Andrew Painter hits 99 mph facing batters for first time since...

Still expect all three to start next year at Lehigh, with Walker and/or veteran scrub as 5th starter to start the season, but with a short leash.

[Aquapong]

Johnson looks like had 5 solid starts since being traded here. Give him a shot. It really makes me wonder why we selected Nelson then. Why not just let Phillips stay on the roster until Saturday and then make the swap? A multi inning arm you won’t cry over losing when you Dfa him in a few days?

[zambonir]

Because they don't want Phillips to pitch again and they do want Nelson, given what he's done since the DFA (both the results and the knuckleball). And they have presumably given up on worrying about Phillips' option.

Nelson also doesn't have to be the one who goes down for Johnson, if he shows something, especially considering he has playoff experience with this franchise. They could option Lazar. Or they'll just outright Nelson again.

Hopefully Johnson can keep the spot instead of just being swapped for Allard on top of it.

[andyb]

Expectations for Johnson are probably minimal but I have been hoping they would do this for a few weeks. He has been consistently good in AAA and his innings, while building up from TJ surgery, are still below 100.

He is likely in there for 3-4 innings and 80 pitches max, but there is definitely some hope that those 3-4 innings will be pretty good. In most of his starts he has been around 20 pitches per inning so he is not that efficient. One worry I guess is that Baltimore never pushed him. His longest start was 69 pitches and he only went 5 innings twice. As a Phillie his pitch counts are 68, 76, 84, 98, 82 with the last start being his first to go 6 innings.

Clearly the Phillies push younger pitchers into longer pitch counts. I just worry about the new usage for Johnson.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Baltimore's pitching dev is weird at best (see Chace as well). The Phillies are definitely stretching out Johnson more as a starter and getting him to pitch efficiently as a starter, but yeah 4-5 innings and 80-85 pitches should be the expectation.

Nelson came up because they wanted an extra arm in the pen with length, particularly if there had been a disaster yesterday. Walker was obviously unavailable. My guess is Banks maybe was available with a 1 inning cap and Alvarado was probably only available in an emergency (I am guessing they didn't want him to go back to back as he came back from his absence). So if say Sanchez had a disastrous start or had taken like a comebacker, they were going to be in real trouble getting through the game, so Nelson gave them so insurance once they know Phillips is not making his next start.

[andyb]

Do you think Johnson is the best choice for spot starts given what is available at Lehigh Valley? This could easily be a one and done with Allard coming up when eligible, but I actually think Johnson has the best chance for a decent start out of all the options.

[Austinfan]

I think they want to take a look at Johnson as an early evaluation going into the offseason (same way they'll closely watch Painter's rehab). Given the alternatives (Phillips, Allard) it's a low/no risk move - basically a bullpen game, where they hope Johnson makes it through 3 innings. If Abel had shown more, he'd have been the call up.

The SP at Lehigh and Reading should be much deeper next year (along with some good young arms in the pen), which changes the dynamic of the offseason - this year they had almost nothing with Painter hurt, Abel struggling and McGarry so bad he got moved to RP duty. So they had to go with a lot of scrub veterans. Ruiz worked out but not much else.