2024 MLB (Rule 4) Draft Discussion

VoteForKalas 2024-07-15 01:41:31 UTC #81

Braves took Caminiti, Padres grabbed Mayfield and Yanks took Lindsey

LoneStarPhan 2024-07-15 01:49:31 UTC #82

So who is this guy? ESPN doesn’t even have a write up on him but do for the next pick after this one.

Docs 2024-07-15 01:50:44 UTC #83

Not the best sign that ESPN's instant draft analysis blog skips the phillies pick because they don't have a pre-written draft profile but let's hope the phillies scouts saw something that they really like in this kid

Docs 2024-07-15 01:51:22 UTC #84

lol - great minds think alike

bkeich 2024-07-15 01:55:44 UTC #85

I doubt Rojas will be happy to see his 2027 replacement already here.

zambonir 2024-07-15 02:08:57 UTC #86

Starting to wonder if we'll ever see a truly big hitting good fielding corner OF again. Just converted CFs or glorified DHs.

HopeSpringsEternal 2024-07-15 02:25:50 UTC #87

He was Michigan’s Mr. Baseball of 2024. Which got me wondering - the same honor that Derek Jeter earned in 1992.

allentown 2024-07-15 02:50:04 UTC #88

Crawford should be ready sooner and has higher ceiling than this guy. I think this is a very strange pick. The Phillies keep chasing the elusive home-grown CF. So far, for all we've spent domestically and internationally, Rojas is the best. I wonder what Barber sees in this guy. It's strange to talk about a high floor for a H.S. OF, especially in the Phillies organization. High floor should be reserved for collegiate picks. I don't think there is such a thing as a high floor for a H.S. kid. Why would we want a low ceiling H.S. CF when we have Rojas and Crawford? The Phillies must see him differently than others do. Barber has earned the benefit of the doubt but this seems a repeat of the Phillies flops with HS and Latin American CFs who had great speed and D. All flopped. All were rated a lot higher by Phillies than by the rest of baseball. And, is he really a 20-year-old H.S. kid? How do you compare a 20-year old with 18-year-old prospects to come up with high floor/low ceiling? I'd expect the two years older to give the impression of high floor. Are we certain he isn't a JC pick?

bkox 2024-07-15 02:58:04 UTC #89

From MLB:

Teams that weigh age heavily won't be interested in Nori, who'll turn 20 three months after the 2024 Draft and is easily the oldest high school player in MLB Pipeline's rankings. There also are evaluators who believe his all-around tools are comparable to Alek Thomas' at the same stage and think he's a better bet to hit than fellow Michigan prepster Caleb Bonemer. His grandfather, Fred Nori, recruited Kyle Schwarber to Indiana as an assistant coach, and his father, Micah, is a longtime NBA assistant coach currently with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Part of a state Division 1 championship team this spring, Nori has a mature approach at the plate, controlling the strike zone and looking to make consistent contact to all fields. He has a quick, direct left-handed swing and will shorten his stroke with two strikes. While he's strong and shows average power during batting practice, he focuses on producing line drives rather than launching balls during games.

Nori posts top-of-the-scale 60-yard dash times and is a well above-average runner who's aggressive on the bases. A Mississippi State commit, he chases down balls from gap to gap as a no-doubt center fielder and his solid arm strength is another asset. He's physically maxed out and offers no projection, but he has plenty of talent and scouts love his makeup as well.

bkeich 2024-07-15 12:54:46 UTC #90

I guess “just turned 20” and “physically maxed out” don’t seem like phrases that go together. He may still grow in height, I would expect a 20 year old to add strength still. Not sure I understand those statements, what are we DNA profiling now? (Kidding)

andyb 2024-07-15 14:30:27 UTC #91

Nori does not turn 20 until October.

allentown 2024-07-15 14:37:19 UTC #92

Almost 20 better than 20, but still an incredibly strange first round pick from my perspective, especially with Rojas and Crawford already on board. It will be interesting to see what Barber has to say about the pick. Perhaps the guys I liked better were known to be demanding well above $ for our bottom-of-first-round slot.

VoteForKalas 2024-07-15 14:43:39 UTC #93

And several of the players the Phillies were connected to in the media went right before they picked i.e. Mayfield in particular.

I'm not sure of the MLB draft rules, but, to use the NFL as a reference, that would be where I trade back and gain an additional later pick. Nori seemed like a "best of what is left" pick and not who the Phillies were really targeting.

julio 2024-07-15 15:55:56 UTC #94

The philosophy appears to be "draft the most attractive guy available," not "draft to address system shortcomings." Given the length of time it takes to develop a drafted player, and given the vagaries of the draft in general (after the top half-dozen picks, usually), that's a defensible strategy.

We have to remember, this is not the NFL or NBA draft. Organizations are not drafting to address immediate needs - because the can't, given the realities of the draft and the development process.

Johan Rojas is on the 26-man roster. Justin Crawford is in AA, and will likely be in AAA in 2025. Nori will be in the FCL, or perhaps, Low-A, next season. Even if he's a steal, he's years away. If all three of them somehow become attractive major-league center fielders two or three years down the road...then the organization has a major trade resource.

This is what happens when one is a fan of multiple professional sports. Draft picks in MLB are not tradable (with exception of competitive balance picks, which the Phillies do not have). We seem to have this question come up every draft cycle.

andyb 2024-07-15 15:57:35 UTC #95

The reason was a significant NIL deal. No idea about the amount, but LSU runs one of the wealthiest programs in the country. Guessing we will see more of this, especially with pitchers assuming 3 years of risk.

VoteForKalas 2024-07-15 16:23:05 UTC #96

Thanks for the correction, julio.

I suspect it keeps coming up because it seems so illogical and boring to set up a major sports draft that way. That might also be one reason why the NFL draft is a huge sports cultural event and the MLB draft barely registers a ripple in the sports landscape.

julio 2024-07-15 16:43:31 UTC #97

I disagree. The reason the MLB draft is not a major sports event - notwithstanding whatever the MLB powers that be dream up to make it glitzy - is that the draftees are not going to make immediate impact on the major league clubs. Most sports fans simply do not pay much attention to the minor leagues (or to the AHL, or junior hockey, for example). The first pitcher drafted last evening is not going to suddenly slot into the rotation of a major-league club. It's not like drafting a Heisman-winning quarterback.

Which is why MLB's efforts to turn the draft into an event are so lame. Interest in the draft is concentrated among those who really follow the minors, and the player-development process. Asking those fans to sit through hours of semi-informed talking heads, and endless advertising...this isn't going to captivate the major-league fan base.

Major college football and basketball are different, because the big players in the NCAA have both large alumni and big regional non-alumni followings. (Local example: Penn State football, which has a huge alumni following, and also a remarkably large fan base among central Pennsylvanians who didn't go to Penn State, or often to any college, but who strongly identify with the Lions anyway.)

andyb 2024-07-15 16:48:23 UTC #98

Trading draft picks would enhance the audience for the draft. Since they have moved the draft back to the All Star break it is now only a couple of weeks prior to the trade deadline. If trades were made for deadline acquisitions many more people would be paying attention. The Guardians for instance are the rare team that is headed to the playoffs with the top pick in the draft. That could have been the seed for an attention grabbing trade. Other leagues have more time allotted per pick simply to give teams time to execute trades.

zambonir 2024-07-15 16:56:47 UTC #99

Yeah I feel like when you are picking in the bottom third (the bottom four, even!) and you can't trade picks and every pick also has questions of both $ amount and signabilty at a particular $ amount, it's hard for me to sit here and confidently state that some other guy who was still on the board would have been better. They are all pretty much crapshoots after 10 or 15 (and even then!) and the 27th pick is probably not much better than the 40th pick.

And I definitely see no reason to draft for position or need, especially with high school players. None of Rojas, Crawford and now these two guys are guaranteed to be everyday players for the Phillies four-five years from now, or even one or two (in the event of a trade).

Last year they gambled on an injured guy who seemed like a steal; this year maybe it was a slight reach.

There does still seem to be a philosophy here that SSs and CFs are better value than other kinds of position players. And of course HS pitching remains risky, perhaps Barber and his staff are even feeling a little gun-shy after making that their point of first-rouund emphasis in the first two years.

julio 2024-07-15 16:57:42 UTC #100

I'm not convinced it would make that much difference. Keep in mind that clubs aren't likely to trade much current value for a draft pick (excluding possibly a high first-round pick), because the net present value of most draft pick slots is pretty low. What we see with the occasional competitive balance pick that's traded (which is typically a pick between the first and second round) is that it's a throw-in to a deal that revolves around other players.

The Phils' first-round pick was number 27. The early batch of competitive balance picks were numbers 34-39. The Royals traded pick number 39 to the Nationals, along with a AA infielder, for a 29-year-old middle reliever. If trading of regular picks were permitted, that's kind of the return one might expect for pick 27. I don't see that riveting major-league fans to their TV sets for hours of blather by Jim Callis and a bunch of people who know less than he does.