2023 Phils Spring Training News and Discussion

[BaseballCat]

Sorry if I missed something. I thought that was Seranthony

[zambonir]

No, my bad, I'm the one who confused them! Their arbitration deals were so similar and I'm surprised they did this after instead of before the arbitration settlement. So, wow! He's still locked into to this year's salary and they've tacked on two more years plus a possible fourth.

#Phillies announce a two-year extension with LHP José Alvarado.

The details of the contract, per source:

2yrs/$18.55M guaranteed:

- $50K signing bonus.
- 2024: $9MM
- 2025: $9MM
- 2026: $9MM club option or a $500K buyout. @ElExtrabase .

— Daniel Álvarez-Montes ( @DanielAlvarezEE ) February 17, 2023

The Phillies have signed left-handed reliever José Alvarado to a three-year contract extension, taking him through 2025 with a club option for 2026, President of Baseball Operations David Dombrowski announced today.

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) February 17, 2023

[zambonir]

So, still think it's a great deal? (It's a fair deal, he is the Phillies best and healthiest reliever. But we all know how these things can go south).

Pretty much locks the Phillies into the top of their bullpen financially for the next three seasons too, barring a non-tender to Soto (or will they extend him too?). Alvarado's new deal basically takes Kimbrel's CBT # next year.

[andyb]

I am only 50-50 on the Alvarado deal. Anyone who throws as hard as he does will have consistency issues as we have seen. Could be a bargain of course. And they did lower the AAV for 2024 and 2025 as they did with Seranthony so there is some long term thinking here. Penalties are only cash this year and will help lower penalties in subsequent years. Nola has that potential too. Remember the draft penalties are not until the 3rd CBT threshold ($273 million?).

My gut is I want Seranthony for even longer (4-5 years) and would have been fine with 2 for Alvarado but I am OK with this sequence. Makes for a happy clubhouse too.

[zambonir]

But does this year's salary bring down the AAV for 2024-2025 or are they two different deals? And if they aren't two different deals also means the reverse is true (but like you say they're not worried about the penalty this year).

If they hadn't done it and he'd left as a FA they'd end up giving that $9 million to someone with just as many questions (as they have almost every season including this one).

[andyb]

This year's salary does bring down the AAV for the future years. Any extension signed before the season starts does that automatically. Teams that do not want to do that will sometimes wait to sign the extension right after the season starts.

All the Padre deals they are doing now are clearly motivated by this (like Darvish) though they probably have bigger cashflow issues than the Phillies do.

On your other point, I guess there is a possibility low cost relievers other than Alvarado could emerge as real late inning options. Guys like Baker and Sullivan will be cheap for the next 4 years. Alvarado is left-handed so there is some scarcity there that probably pushed them into wanting to do this. I am not as gung ho as AF that we will have inexpensive bullpen options in the future, but I really hope we do. And if we can get 2 or 3 of our young pitchers to be solid rotation options we should have some chances to get under the CBT and reset our tax rate in the next couple of years if we want to.

[zambonir]

This year's salary does bring down the AAV for the future years. Any extension signed before the season starts does that automatically. Teams that do not want to do that will sometimes wait to sign the extension right after the season starts.

The Devers extension did not. It's a choice both sides can make I guess?

Rafael Devers Extension Goes Into Effect In 2024 For Luxury Tax Purposes

[bkeich]

I still think it is a good deal, but, yes, I agree, I am surprised they overpaid so much for next year. I think he probably gets something around $15M for 2 years of arbitration, but that of course depends on performance.

The $9M for one year of FA is probably a bargain, but we will see.

I also just like seeing the guy hit triple digits, so I am happy he is locked in.

[andyb]

Alvarado was in his last year of arbitration so the 2 $9 million years would both be free agent years. We are buying 2-3 years of free agency with some cost certainty and slightly lower AAV with this deal.

[zambonir]

Yeah in theory he would get $11-13 million a year in the open market - if he has a good year. I suppose they might have gotten some indication from his agent that they wouldn't negotiate in-season, as it might have otherwise been nice to see how he does and in what role for four months.

Kind of funny that nobody thinks of him like Lidge (in Houston) or even Broxton - but the fact is he gave up 2 earned runs in both Games 4 and 6 and looked pretty awful doing so against Alvarez (HBP in the first, HR in the second). He was also part of the Phillies getting into that hole against St. Louis way back at the start of the playoffs. Relievers!

[bkox]

John Middleton is going for it all with the Phillies, and he’s spending like he...

[zambonir]

He is finally living up to J-Roll's words ("Steinbrenner of the South"). I'm sure the pressure from the other New York team is a factor too. Fortunately, he can afford it!

[zambonir]

So, between the article above (where Middleton not only talks about spending but about how long deals with dead money are a cost of doing business that he isn't bothered by) and this I think it's safe to say he'll get paid.

Aaron Nola, Phillies in talks over long-term extension: 'I love it here'

[andyb]

It really feels like the Phillies are checking off boxes and this was perhaps last on the list. Nola does seem like someone who would not want this hanging over his head during the year too. As we have discussed, if the Phillies pick one between Nola and Wheeler it should probably be Nola based on his age when he hits free agency.

There may not be great paths to get under the competitive balance tax any time soon, but we are still about $20 million away from draft penalties this year and we really should not need any compensation free agents in the next year or two if the team is reasonably healthy and a couple of the young starters develop.

So it is only money. Nola signed his first deal very quietly without much fuss in the media. It would be nice if this one goes down like that too.

[zambonir]

The truth is if the Phillies re-sign a healthy and expensive Wheeler, well, they can still afford it. But it might also mean something went wrong (either losing Nola, Walker or Ranger being disappointing, or the younger pitchers not working out as well as hoped). Locking up the younger homegrown player who they also need in 2024 is a no-brainer and shouldn't be connected to Wheeler scenarios in any way. Nola and everyone else (and Wheeler's performance) will set that path.

I don't think they want to do this one quietly. There will be a celebratory press conference in Clearwater. This is going to be the Ryan Howard deal except with a higher-value/more highly skilled player who is actually a free agent, and with less risk of rapid decline (if not no risk). Maybe not an overpay, but fair market. Even when Howard signed that deal coming off a great season he was nowhere near the player he was in '06 and '07; he put up 3.8 WAR in a very good 2009 but Nola just put up 6.0. I think that Athletic story actually understates how good he's been, even with the occasional struggles (two strikes or late innings/late season).

[bkeich]

Next Saturday, split squad games against Yankees and Tigers at 1:05pm.

(Posted for those of us missing football)

[julio]

Next Saturday, split squad games against Yankees and Tigers at 1:05pm.

(Posted for those of us missing football)

Also applies to those of us missing baseball!

I’ve been watching streaming archives of Adelaide Giants games; they have a half-dozen Phils minor league players on the roster…and they won the ABL title.

[andyb]

(Posted for those of us missing football)

The XFL did start yesterday if you are desperate.

[zambonir]

I didn't know the Phillies actually hired Brian Kaplan as a consultant back in 2019. He played a role in the Painter pick and now of course, he runs the whole minor league pitching show (and has the major league job too).

Why are the Phillies pushing 19-year-old Andrew Painter? Trust — 5 years in the...

[zambonir]

Sosa 'all in' to try his hand at center field this spring

Sounds pretty likely this will happen. It also says Hall has been taking balls in the OF (presumably just the corners) though that seems somewhat less likely.