2023 Phils Spring Training News and Discussion

zambonir 2023-01-25 17:05:03 UTC #21

What you described is surely what's going to happen. He'd have to be head-and-shoulders above the others in spring training to earn a roster spot (both of them). Though the same caveats about quality of pitching will apply to Clemens and Cave. Of course Clemens is still a prospect who could probably use some time in AAA again himself. Cave is 30 so I'd say he and Kingery are both essentially fungible marginal major leaguers.

The real question is still how the Phillies want to construct those last two bench spots, in terms of defensive position as well as LHB vs. RHB. If Guthrie makes the team for his fielding and running one assumes they want the LHB Hall or Clemens or Cave to hit (but that still leaves the question of whether they want fielding too).

Heck the best scenario would be for Kingery to put up a consistent .800 OPS with great defense in AAA for 80 games and gets thrown into a trade. The arbitration-eligibility would actually make him very appealing to lower-budget teams, enough so that they might even pay the partial 2023 freight (if the Phillies need to free up 3 or 4 million in CBT room). But that's still a fantasy until he does it.

phillychuck 2023-01-25 20:11:10 UTC #22

An example "freely available" player who was on the market this year and just signed is Cesar Hernandez (ex-Phillie, too). He projects to about 1-1.5 fWAR if used in a bench role this season, can credibly play 3B and stand at SS and CF. For this season I'd prefer him substantially to Kingery. I honestly think there are a lot better solutions to the bench job we are discussing than SK.

andyb 2023-01-25 20:35:38 UTC #23

Hernandez will make $1.5 million though and the past 2 seasons has been under 1.0 WAR. Kingery is a sunk cost. Clearly he'll have to win a job by playing well and whether he can do that is not certain, but there really is not much separating him from Dalton Guthrie who is almost as old (27). Guthrie was a bit better last season but not dramatically better.

Kingery costs us nothing. If he plays well (thinking AAA rather than Spring Training) he should get a chance. Maybe there are waiver type acquisitions better than both Guthrie and Kingery but it is not as if either of them is really that great.

phillychuck 2023-01-25 20:37:51 UTC #24

Agree. Although, $1.5M is a rounding error in our budget!

andyb 2023-01-25 20:44:54 UTC #25

I do think it is 50-50 we'll make a small deal for another team's minor league free agent that is getting cut before opening day to serve primarily as a pinch hitter and outfield reserve. I know we will not pinch hit much for any of the 8 presumed starters other than Marsh, but most managers do like that veteran presence on the bench. Maybe Thomson is secure enough to be different, but on keeping a veteran reserve pinch hitter (the Matt Joyce if he could still actually hit role) I tend to think he will prefer having that security blanket.

zambonir 2023-01-25 23:25:15 UTC #26

In any case, they seem ready to have Hoskins, Bohm and JT in the RH DH mix, which means Castellanos is firmly still the starting RF until Bryce returns. Would they play Guthrie in RF once a week? Or give Nick a day off against RHP if Cave (or Clemens) win a spot? Clemens can also play 3B but Sosa would be ahead of him there. Turner could also DH once a week to get Sosa at SS.

Regardless, Kingery is well down the depth chart, but I think comparing him to Cesar only proves the point. If all you're gonna get is an 83 or 84 OPS+ it could be literally anyone, and Kingery is both under contract and offers flexibility (whereas someone like Cesar would either have an opt-out or would get claimed).

Hall vs. someone who can field for the 5th spot strikes me as the main battle. Guthrie vs. the other guys for the fourth spot is less of one, any of them will do. If they make that small deal it's probably at Hall's expense.

andyb 2023-01-25 23:33:05 UTC #27

Guthrie is really the 3rd spot and Hall the 4th.

I am assuming Sosa will just play a great deal until Harper comes back. Against all left-handed pitching certainly though unclear which LH bat gets to sit. Marsh sits if they play Guthrie more. Stott might sit some as well.

None of this is that important really. I'd probably have 14 pitchers and 12 hitters if MLB still allowed it. The last man on the bench will just not play that much.

zambonir 2023-01-26 01:34:08 UTC #28

Then who is 5th?

I mean, I get it, the DH spot is not actually a bench spot. But that does mean (as things currently stand) Cave, Clemens or even Muzziotti can still make the team along with Guthrie and Hall.

andyb 2023-01-26 02:21:46 UTC #29

I think it is basically Cave vs Clemens. Kingery only if somebody gets hurt.

That is why the trade scenario is possible since none of them are really that good. Muzziotti does not really makes sense because he is another left-handed CF and also really needs a few healthy months of plate appearances.

LoneStarPhan 2023-01-26 05:55:04 UTC #30

I agree that Kingery will need to show consistency in AAA to be considered for a call up later in the season if a need arises.

Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

andyb 2023-02-15 13:08:51 UTC #31

And back to the bench. Josh Harrison is now the 3rd spot after Stubbs and Sosa. Guthrie 4th. Competition between Hall and Cave and Clemens for 5th?

Guthrie is really the only CF reserve unless you put Sosa out there (which he could play but he is better in so many other places that is something you really don't want to do regularly).

I probably lean to Hall because they need power on the bench and with Bryce out. With Sosa and Harrison and Guthrie all able to play multiple positions one can get away with the offense-only reserve.

zambonir 2023-02-15 15:09:09 UTC #32

With Hall I just think he can't be a "reserve." If you're committed to giving him at least 50% of the ABs at DH - you could still rotate in some RHBs like JT and Castellanos against some RHPs - the job should be is. If you'd rather not have a full-time DH at all and want to play Sosa at 3B and Bohm at 1B as well as DH (with Hoskins also at DH) and Harrison at the corner OF spots may as well as add Cave or Clemens to that mix, which also lets you DH Castallanos and Schwarber more.

Cave can actually play CF - in fact it's where he's played the most - but hits from the same side as Marsh.

There is a certain simplicity to Hall is all. He replaces Harper, he DHs most days, and then Harper simply replaces him on the roster (and possibly at DH for a while too).

xogfog 2023-02-16 14:50:09 UTC #33

andyb 2023-02-16 14:57:06 UTC #34

2 years/$7 million. $2.5 then $4.5 million for his last 2 arbitration years and then what looks like a team option for $8 million for his first free agent year which would be a bargain if he keeps pitching like last year (less than Kimbrel for instance).

Seranthony was really hurt by the arbitration process because he was hurt so much. Probably a good thing for him that he has some guaranteed money now though a process that pays Soto more really needs to be revisited. Good for the Phillies too to lock him up for 3 seasons at a reasonable amount if he pitches well.

zambonir 2023-02-16 14:58:43 UTC #35

Well that's great news.

$2.5 million (the exact arb figure midpoint just like with Alvarado)
$4.5 million
team option for $8 million (one assumes w/ a buyout which adds to the value of the first two years, for him).

(Oops, cross-post!)

andyb 2023-02-16 14:59:53 UTC #36

Looks like there is a $500K buyout on that option which pushes the guarantee up to $7.5 million (and the likely AAV to $3.75 million).

2nd year might be only $4.25 million now instead of $4.5.

BaseballCat 2023-02-17 14:04:22 UTC #37

As per MLBTraderumors they have extended Alvarado for three years. No details yet. Good morning all ️️️

BaseballCat 2023-02-17 14:20:19 UTC #38

9MM in both 2024 and 2025. Option for 2026

bkeich 2023-02-17 14:22:58 UTC #39

Getting Alvarado tied up through his arbitration and I believe option for one year of FA is a great deal. Guy really came around in the 2nd half of last year, hopefully it keeps going.

He proved he can hit the strike zone, just have to avoid injury and overwork, and hopefully the increased quality arms in the bullpen will save that.

Always good to avoid arbitration and to get a possible lower cost reliever for one year after us a good deal (assuming the option year is somewhere between the cost of 1-2 WAR)

zambonir 2023-02-17 14:23:15 UTC #40

No details besides the last four posts in this thread from yesterday?

Phillies were voted most improved team in the NL in Starks' informal survey.

8th-best World Series odds (fifth in NL behind all the teams that finished ahead of them last year except St. Louis)

Scott Lauber points out that the 2017-2018 Dodgers and the 2008-2009 Phillies are the only two teams to make back-to-back World Series appearances out of the NL this century. (The Giants did it three times in six years but didn't even make the playoffs the other three).