2023 Phils Spring Training News and Discussion

[zambonir]

My issue is what to pay Nola. If he's asking well north of $200M, that's too rich for a pitcher likely to be a #2 at the start of his new deal and a #3 for the last few years.

I figure he's worth 3x30 and 3x20, 3 years of #2 pay, 3 years of #3 pay.
That would be $150M. Figure a 20% overpay due to need, I'll go $180M for six years.
But when you start throwing around 7 years at $200+M, ouch.

It's not too rich if you've successfully produced a homegrown #1. It's just the way the system works. And if they haven't produced a homegrown #1 they need what Nola can provide as a so-called #2 or #3 more than ever.

And AAV is what matters. The fact that some of the money will be wasted is a given. But your "ouch" $200/7 deal is actually a more team-friendly contract than your $180/6.

Worst-case you get Lee or Halladay 2.0. Best-case you get Charlie Morton or Verlander.

With Hoskins gone for the season, and Harper out for half a season (and unable to play RF this year, but possibly in 2024), I think the Phillies have a better chance to get back to WS in 2024 than this year. So, I absolutely want Nola back next year. The Phillies are definitely going to try to pay for a guy of Nola's ability next season, not wanting to put too much pressure on Abel and Painter.

There's just nobody of Nola's caliber in that same free agent class is the problem. That said your pessimism seems like a pretty good reason to wait until December. May as well see how this season plays out, from the actual quality of the team to what the hitters (both young and old) do to what happens with Painter to the trade deadline. That will make the picture for 2024, including how to spend the money and what the holes are and what assets are tradeable, more clear.

If they are actually well into the wild card or NL East mix, they could end up trading for Nola's replacement at the deadline.

[zambonir]

Fair amount of news today

Nick Castellanos volunteers to work out at first base after Rhys Hoskins’ injury

And Strahm confirmed to start on April 5

Matt Strahm adjusts to being a starter for Phillies

[andyb]

Lefty Darick Hall is now the starter in what was an already lefty-heavy lineup.

That is really not true (from the Inquirer article. 4 lefties out of 8. Maybe a 5th with Cave now. Actually pretty balanced and 2-3 of those lefties (Hall, Cave, somebody else) probably don't start against LHP.

Castellanos realizing he could help at 1B is good. I guess he prefers 1B to DH which would now be on the table much more if the goal is to get a better fielding OF into the lineup.

[zambonir]

It's Marcus Hayes, don't get caught up in the details! But the news itself was notable.

I didn't get the sense Nick really expects to do it, said it was more of a break glass in case of emergency situation. But we'll see. The notion of him DHing more than once a week to get a better fielder out there really hasn't even been broached (like we heard a lot of talk about Sosa playing CF but not RF. Harrison may not be better. But Cave would certainly make sense, even to give him a full day off.

[gmwannabe]

don't go to sleep on Hall. the kid will be a legitimate candidate for ROY if given the chance. will be a big underdog story.
gm

[zambonir]

This post is incorrect

[fish]

don't go to sleep on Hall. the kid will be a legitimate candidate for ROY if given the chance. will be a big underdog story.

Except for the part that he’s not a rookie anymore.

[Austinfan]

He did spend the offseason working with Long, so we know he's motivated.
Long focused on fixing the holes in his swing and his approach at the plate.

Phillies’ Darick Hall finding success by controlling ‘my own destiny’ at the...

And Hall has been more selective this spring, if you're a "three outcomes" hitter, being selective is one of the keys to success.

[zambonir]

Yes I was referencing that he passed the ABs threshold (barely!) for rookie.

I don't think there's any doubt that Hall is going to help. Hopefully the increased opportunity will be a plus rather than a minus (the latter could be the case if he's not actually up for a full load of starter ABs, or if his defense isn't that good even though he's still likely the best option).

Voit's now a free agent btw.

[gmwannabe]

did he play in 45 games? I thought that is why Thomson sent him down on 9/1, to protect his rookie status. I thought he played in 44 games and 8 innings. If it was anymore I think he might have a greivance.
gm

[Squire]

Seems like the roster decisions have been made -

https://twitter.com/MattGelb/status/1640343311486418944

[zambonir]

The threshold is 130 ABs. And no, he got sent down because he wasn't going to play once Harper came back.

[andyb]

That is a logical transaction-related roster. Guessing it will change often. They can use Hoskins 60-day IL for Song. And keep Vasquez. Picking Guthrie over Kingery is likely about the roster spot too. Kingery will get his chances if he plays well.

The team definitely would be innings-challenged if they went for a long stretch with Strahm in the rotation and NOT having another 2-inning reliever which is what Strahm would be. Hopefully Ranger solves this issue with a relatively quick return.

[andyb]

Threshold is 130 ABs or 45 DAYS. Hall had the 45 days before September 1 anyway because of off days and left-handed starters. He had 54 days when he was sent down in late August.

Dalton Guthrie is eligible though!

[zambonir]

Thomson had said as much (that it would be locked today) the other day. Doesn't seem like there was really much to debate. Keeping Guthrie over Kingery always made a certain amount of sense anyway but it also gives them maximum flexibility should they still want to acquire a RH 1B or CF.

And then when Suarez comes back they either option Marte or DFA Vasquez. I guess it really depends how Vasquez does, but in the long run I still think they need that optionable arm (which may or may not include Brogdon and Bellatti).

They say Marte can go two innings.

There was an update on Song's progress over the weekend too. I think the Phillies are subtly making sure that gets into the media to send the public message that he's actually injured and going through the normal process.

[BaseballCat]

Darin Ruf has been DFA by Mets. Not sure he is better than anyone we have, but I am just throwing it out there. Mets gave up 4 bodies to get him and ultimately bombed with the Mets after a few successful years with the Giants.

[zambonir]

I'd probably snap him up. Still hit 9 HRs and 132 OPS+ against LHP. Plus he can actually stand in LF or RF. (And I still gotta think that if Ruf could Hall could, especially given the starters aren't any good either).

[David_Criss]

Was there really a competition? No way does Guthrie beat Kingery out for the final spot. Guthrie should be playing everyday in AAA. Kingery is better suited for the bench role and they are paying him. Hoskins to the 60-day, add Kingery.

[andyb]

They would need to clear another 40-man spot beyond Hoskins for either Kingery or Ruf. They decided not to put Harper on the 60. That could be one. They also kept Vasquez and that could be another.

Ruf is certainly interesting in that he does give them something the roster lacks and taking him back to a platoon role might increase his effectiveness. Not sure I would give up much for him though.

[Aquapong]

Ruf should have enough service time to refuse a minor league assignment. I’d wait to see what happens.

We need to be putting the best roster we can to win games on the field. If Kingery beat out Guthrie, then he should be on the active roster. We’re already going into the season down Harper, Hoskins, and Suarez. We can’t start 22-29 again.