2023 Phils Spring Training News and Discussion

[phillychuck]

If Hoskins does make it back for the playoffs it would be the lead story and a possible incredible feel-good situation.

Also would help him re-establish his value if he were to hit well in the playoffs, too.

[zambonir]

It would be a nice story but not at all something you need to plan for, i.e. you need to plan your roster (and, if necessary, your 40) as if he won't be coming back.

I think it's mostly coming up because Schwarber did it. He got hurt in the second game of the season and wound up playing in the World Series. But other players have needed far more time than that, including Acuña who got hurt in early July and was out until late April of the next season. Those guys were also both much younger players, by pro athlete standards, at the time of their injuries.

We should be so lucky as to be discussing it in late October, because it would mean he is doing well and it would mean the Phillies were back in NLCS. Both things hardly guaranteed.

[andyb]

Nola extension talks ended. I am guessing he asked for market price and the Phillies probably said no (any extension usually comes with a small discount because the player is not taking on any risk).

And he gives up 5 runs in 1.2 IP this afternoon.

Phillies, Aaron Nola call off extension talks: What the mutual risk means for...

[Austinfan]

If he's asking for $200M plus, walk.

A lot of mileage on that arm, and he doesn't have the kind of stuff that will play well if he loses a couple MPH on that FB in 2-3 years. You're paying for 31-35 years old or more, and there's no upside play (unlike Wheeler when he was signed).

1228 ML IP, 175 MILB, 332 college.

[David_Criss]

Anyone know why he only threw 37 pitches today in his final spring outing?

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Anyone know why he only threw 37 pitches today in his final spring outing?

He was getting hit hard. Brought in a reliever to finish an inning where he threw a number of pitches; Phillies opted not to bring him back out again for another inning. Disappointing outing, since that’s his last start prior to Opening Day

[zambonir]

The Phillies aren't gonna get anyone better than Nola from 2024-2026 unless they sign Ohtani or two of the three prospects not only perform but stay healthy (which so far already hasn't happened). He'll get his $ because there's no one else for other teams to sign either. They can still take another shot at him and at least don't have to worry about QO compensation but otherwise I'm afraid they'll just be signing someone else a year from now, or giving Wheeler an even more risky extension.

I realize they have more pitching than hitting (in the minors) but not sure I get the willingness to eat as much reduced value money as they're going to on Castellanos (and possibly Schwarber, maybe not JT) and Harper and Turner but not an elite and historically healthy starting pitcher. Yeah there have been some warts but there aren't any wart-free alternatives.

[zambonir]

Both sides say they expect to talk again at the end of the season.

There's one potential wild card (no pun intended) of course: what if the Phillies are below .500 and outside the playoffs after 95 games?

Phillies press pause on Aaron Nola contract extension conversations, for now

[Aquapong]

That would be an extreme disappointment for the season, but we would potentially be sitting on two hopefully very valuable trade chips in Nola and Kimbrel.

[zambonir]

Yeah, certainly a very pessimistic and perhaps unlikely scenario - particularly for them to be far enough out to white-flag it. But if they are on the fence, it's a conversation they'd at least have to have with Nola (which could also end in an extension if the talks reopened, a la Hamels in 2012).

[zambonir]

Interesting note/history in that piece too.

The Marlins traded Realmuto to the Phillies in 2019. The two sides tried to negotiate from 2019-2020 but did not come to an agreement. Realmuto became a free agent after the 2020 season, and re-signed with the Phillies in January of 2021. It was a five-year, $115.5 million deal.

”It reminds me a little bit, I wasn’t here at the time, of the J.T. Realmuto situation a few years ago,” Dombrowski said. “Club tried to get him signed, [but] it didn’t work out, and he resigned with the club after, during the winter time.”

[Austinfan]

They're not going to get anyone better in FA this offseason, but Nola has a lot of mileage for a guy who isn't built like a workhorse. My problem is I can see Nola holding up in his 30s, but as a #2/#3. But I can also see him starting to get injured, like many aging pitchers.

Now how much is that worth? $20-25M a year?

[zambonir]

The way free agency works is you pay the player for what he is worth at that moment as well as for past performance, for the entire length of the deal. You can't predict their decline or injuries or sustainability though lord knows teams have tried. It's a highly flawed system but the only thing dumber than signing a free agent who you know is going to stink for part of the deal would be not knowing that. But if you want elite players it's part of the cost. To attempt to pay otherwise is to not be serious about keeping him. The security of him signing know instead of in November just isn't worth that much, even if Rhys Hoskins might tell him otherwise.

And injuries happen to all pitchers. Durability is actually one of Nola's greatest features. Does that mean he's an injury waiting to happen because his card hasn't come up yet? Maybe but still beats signings the ones with longer injury histories.

No point in worrying about it until it's December and he's gone, if that's what happens. But for where the Phillies are in their competitive window not signing Nola increases the odds of them trading one or more of the big three pitching prospects, because they won't be able to wait on all of them (and one or more probably won't work out either), or just giving a stupid contract in 2024 or 2025 to someone who wasn't a lifelong Phillie.

[Austinfan]

Smart teams don't play for past performance, they pay for a rational expectation of future performance, and they pay below the market (b/c if you pay market rates for everything, you'll never be better than .500 unless you spend like the Mets).

Dombrowski made a mistake with Castellanos, hitters who aren't disciplined tend not to age well as pitchers exploit declining bat speed - which is why Long has worked with Castellanos to make him more selective, he's done the same with Hall all winter. Hitters can age well if they learn which pitches they can handle and spit on the rest.

PItchers eventually lose velocity, Nola has maintained 93 MPH between 25-30, but at what point does he decline to 91-92, and how effective will he be at that point? Since he already has maxed out his secondary pitches (though he is working on a cutter), unlike a power pitcher who loses velocity but improves his portfolio of pitches, I don't see many avenues for Nola to compensate.

Pitcher Aging Curves: Starters and Relievers

Velocity Vulnerability

Putting MLB Aging Theories to the Test on Star Players

On the other hand:

Sarris: Is this the golden age of the old(er) starting pitcher?

The other problem for pitchers in general is as average velocity increases, self-selection eliminates hitters who don't have "quick" bats.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/04/12/age-of-learned-velocity-julian-merryweather

[andyb]

That velocity vulnerability article is really bad. Of course the pitchers with the most velocity are more likely to retain velocity as they age. Then they list Rich Hill as the most vulnerable. He is a pitcher that never had much velocity and never really depended on it. He actually has the least to lose. Nola is not Rich Hill, but is also probably not unlike him in that he depends on command and velocity DIFFERENCES between pitches to maintain effectiveness.

You post constantly against signing almost any older player. That is fine for a small market team, but for the Phillies the question is more about whether the Phillies could adequately replace Nola's performance. Sometimes one needs to pay for reliability and certainty.

[Austinfan]

The question is whether Nola will be reliable in his 30s.

He averages 93 on his FB, pitchers in their early 30s lose 1-2 MPH in velocity.
At 91-92, will he be as effective when hitters can wait longer on his off speed stuff?

[allentown]

I generally agree with what you say... but here's the operational problem for a team, which seeks to be a post-season threat: unless you have a steady flow of top pitching talent, like Nola, and hopefully Painter and Abel, you are forced to either re-sign your own getting up in age pitching stars, or sign someone else's, as we did with Wheeler. You are on more solid ground making a big $ decision on your own, getting older star pitchers than you are making the big $ decision on a guy from another team. Nola has a lot of the plus qualities we saw in Wheeler (especially in IP per season and control). That's the same thing we previously saw in Halladay and Lee. I'm not talking only about evaluating a guys physical condition and progress along the aging curve, but also how he will fit on the team. Unless the Phillies know about serious warts wrt Nola, which the general public and opposing teams don't, he seems an excellent choice for an extension, depending of course on $/years.

With Hoskins gone for the season, and Harper out for half a season (and unable to play RF this year, but possibly in 2024), I think the Phillies have a better chance to get back to WS in 2024 than this year. So, I absolutely want Nola back next year. The Phillies are definitely going to try to pay for a guy of Nola's ability next season, not wanting to put too much pressure on Abel and Painter.

The graphs in your last article show that today's 32 is prior generation's age 29 for pitchers. That Nola has a 93 mph FB is also saying he hasn't been succeeding based upon FB velocity. He's a pitcher, not a thrower. He still has more to learn as a pitcher. For a guy who throws as many IP as he does, he throws entirely too many waste pitches to set up hitters. As he ages, that's a luxury he won't be able to afford.

[Austinfan]

My issue is what to pay Nola. If he's asking well north of $200M, that's too rich for a pitcher likely to be a #2 at the start of his new deal and a #3 for the last few years.

I figure he's worth 3x30 and 3x20, 3 years of #2 pay, 3 years of #3 pay.
That would be $150M. Figure a 20% overpay due to need, I'll go $180M for six years.
But when you start throwing around 7 years at $200+M, ouch.

[andyb]

But the Phillies are not the A's.

There is no draft compensation cost to re-signing your own free agent. There just are different equations for teams that spend $100-$150 million than for teams that can spend $250 million.

Are you going to be able to acquire any starting pitcher who is even 90% as good as Nola in the short run? Anybody?

[allentown]

And the real-world extension of what you are saying is that the Phillies are constrained by international bonus $, poor draft slot, and no charity draft picks, the only way they can make use of their $250 million salary budget is by (over-)paying for carefully chosen stars. We want to have our minor leagues do better, but there is the noncompetitive resource situation which we are in which puts a severe ceiling of farm production. Your $100- to 150-million budget gap between As and similar teams and the Phillies is enough to pay four $35million players every season. Hoskins gone after this year. Wheeler gone after next.