2023 Phils Spring Training News and Discussion

[zambonir]

It's not exactly that Kingery has an option (though he does, all of them I believe). It's that he's not on the 40. But presumably once he does earn his way back he won't be DFA'ed again (if all goes well). And then you could even think about offering him arbitration (rather than picking up his more expensive contract option), or the fact that you could does make him an appealing trade target potentially.

I don't think Harrison is Kingery's competition really. It's Guthrie and Cave, and even Hall to some extent. If Kingery were to make it it would be more as back-up CF/RF than IF, beating out one of those guys and keeping Sosa from having to do it.

While I was mostly kidding about trading Kingery (you'd still have to pick up salary) or Cave, given that Painter, Suarez and Sanchez have all had setbacks I do wonder if there is a deal to made. Extra bench piece for extra rotation/long relief piece. Basically something like the Plassmeyer deal last year. Or if they really do think Song is going to get his 90 days (not that they will know that for another six weeks now) they still have bullpen depth more than starter depth (but that could also be the same thing, if they just lack a 5th starter for a month).

[tom81]

-Good thing Kingery has an option. He's earned a spot, but Harrison has his role. If nothing else we can hope he keeps hitting in the minors to either earn his trade value or move up to fill in for an injury.

What role does Harrison have that Kingery can't do as well or better if Kingery can hit? Kingery in fact can fill roles, such as backup CF and runner on second base in extra inning games, that I wouldn't want Harrison to do. I would guess Harrison gets you more back in a trade given his much lower salary. If Kingery's hitting is real it gives you a lot of options, I'd keep the sunk cost on the active roster if it is real.

[phillychuck]

This is where we are as fans with Scotty Jetpax...a good two-week stretch against AAA pitchers mostly throwing fastballs with no particular plan to attack the actual batter's weaknesses, and, despite conversation about Kingery having to prove himself for at least a couple of months in Lehigh Valley, we are ready to give him a roster spot and move someone else off the 40?

Kingery should be no one's competition. There is no such thing as proving yourself in spring training; the conditions barely resemble "real" competitive baseball. Once the season starts, Kingery will be seeing 80-90% breaking balls off the plate again, and swinging at all of them.

He needs at least a month, probably two to show that he actually can stay in the strike zone when he swings. What we are seeing now is illusory.

[Austinfan]

This is why I start watching games come this weekend or so - the minor leaguers get sent down, a lot of players return from the WBC, and pitchers are tuning up for the regular season, so no more experimentation with grips and new pitches (unless they're an improvement).

Hitting the last ten or so games of ST will give us a better feel for Kingery, Caves, Hall, Guthrie, et al. If they are still putting up good ABs then you can have confidence their early performance isn't a ST fluke.

Same holds for pitchers, pitchers often struggle their first few starts, getting their mechanics down, etc. Especially SPs. So their last couple starts are more prove it time, you've had weeks to work out the kinks, now show you are worthy of the 5th (and 6th) SP slot.

I've gotten jaded with age, too many ST, TC phenoms who quickly burn out.
As a crotchety old man, I get to put on my "Missouri."

Plus, the last two weeks of ST is when anticipation of the coming season becomes palatable!
Hopefully, the beginning of the regular season will also usher out this crappy weather.

[zambonir]

I think it's entirely reasonable to wait and see on Kingery, but it's also entirely reasonable to recognize that he is in good health for the first time since 2019 and that the work he's been doing to change his swing is real. At this point his spring training performance is no more illusory than Hall or Cave or Guthrie or the somewhat decrepit Josh Harrison; they are all bench guys whose inflated spring training numbers will turn into your normal .680-.720 OPS part-time player come April.

We've seen Kingery's floor, which is a reason to be down on him, but his ceiling is probably still the highest too, and he compares favorably to three of the other four guys in at least one category (more versatile than Hall, more experienced than Guthrie, younger than Harrison). I'd say he and Cave are the same guy, except Cave is also older and Kingery might be a better defender (or at least is more versatile). If we'd seen Cave put up his 2021 and 2022 numbers for the Phillies we'd want nothing to do with him.

[allentown]

He needs at least a month, probably two to show that he actually can stay in the strike zone when he swings. What we are seeing now is illusory.

100% correct. We need to remember that Kingery got the big early contract, based upon a stand-out ST. He moved through the minors somewhat, but not unusually fast for a college draftee, with only 3 ML seasons before he was brought to majors after the good ST. He became a great fan and management hope at a time when the MLB Phillies stank and our minors were weak; he also was a good fielder at 2B and a guy the brass saw as a flexible, many position player in the making -- a fad they were chasing. If you look at his minor league record as a hitter, there is really just a single, half-year, second stop at Reading, where his offensive numbers stand out. Promoted to Allentown, for the second half of that season his OPS plummeted from .987 to .786 -- probably partly small-sample-size in both cases. I know that I certainly fell in love with his half-year at Reading and was impressed by what I saw in person.

After a .606 OPS his first MLB season, he improved to .788 in his second, age 25, MLB season. Guys don't normally peak at age 25, but with Covid, injuries, and pitchers discovering flaws, the last 3 seasons have been a complete wasteland for him.

You can't start the year with him in MLB based upon a good ST, not after the awful last 3 seasons. It's too great a danger of losing someone from the 40-man for nothing. I will hope that the turnaround is for real, but for now he has to prove himself in regular-season AAA and his value to the MLB Phillies is as a possible injury replacement.

Does Kingery really have options left. I find that hard to believe. He's on an MLB contract and has been in the minors for 3 seasons.

[zambonir]

That's what Fangraphs says. You only burn an option if you actually get optioned, right? He was never sent down in 2018, 2019 or 2020. I'm thinking maybe 2021 didn't count (i.e. he was only sent to the alternate training site). And then last year only outrighted not optioned.

Anyway - no one is talking about giving Kingery Bryson Stott or Edmundo Sosa's job. Truth is the best argument to keep him in AAA is that he probably should keep playing every day both to show improvement and because he still has starter value (and a starter salary). But if you're merely trying to pick the best 4th or 5th bench guy he is no better or worse than the current options (or past ones, like Cairo, Camargo and arguably even Vierling). And if they did put him on the 40 at Cave's expense, not sure that would be such a huge loss. It just makes sense to give Cave the first look since he already has the roster spot.

The idea that you might be able to trade Harrison for pitching depth is actually the most intriguing thing to me, if the need for pitching becomes more critical. But I don't think they are going to do that to Harrison.

[Austinfan]

IF Kingery has fixed his swing, AND can incorporate his improved plate discipline, he could be one of those "breakout" stories that happen every year. He's still got plus speed, and in the age of 95 MPH FBs being standard, a short compact swing making contact with the fat part of the bat is all you need to generate consistent alley power and 15-20 HRs.Big ifs, but the upside is there where he could push his way into the lineup.

It's also easy to forget that Sosa put up a RC+ of 104, .735 OPS, two years ago. His problem is he's a free swinger, and ML pitchers figure that out and exploit it. But if you can teach him patience, the pop in the bat is there, and with his fielding skills, you don't need a great hitter to have value [3 WAR in 516 PA over the last two years primarily due to fielding].

I'd be more skeptical of Cave, RC+ 85, 50, 81 last three seasons off the bench. Partially driven by low BABIP, but he has always had a high K rate (30+%).

Harrison on the other hand, even though he's 35, has put up respectable numbers in close to full-time duty the past two seasons, RC+ 104 and 98, plus fielder, so it's a good bet they can get a solid season from him and he provides insurance against injuries. Consistent but limited.

I think there's another level to Hall, ML BB/K 3.5%/31.0%, last two milb seasons: 11.7%/21.2% and 9.5%/22.6%. So now that he's had ML experience, he should be less anxious at the plate and more selective. Other than that, his ML stats last year are almost identical to his AAA stats.

[julio]

IF Kingery has fixed his swing, AND can incorporate his improved plate discipline

Improved plate discipline? What is the basis for believing this has occurred? Spring training?

[BostonRoss]

Scott Kingery's regular season record after a stellar spring training is not good...

[David_Criss]

Why is everyone so down on Kingery? He is an NRI. If he plays onto the team, great. If not, it wasn't like he was counted on to be the key to the next World Series. Kingery was a great prospect. In 2018 his rookie year under Kapler all of a sudden, he was expected to play SS at the Major League level oh and sometimes play in the outfield and 3B, too. He was a regular 2B in the minors and in college. That is A LOT for a rookie. In 2019, under Kapler all of a sudden he is the starting centerfielder. This shows how athletic he is. But again, a second-year player is learning yet another position at the highest level.
2020 is 2020.
2021 he was a long haul COVID sufferer - my wife is a long hauler, too. It totally changes you physically.
2022 he had a bad shoulder
Let's see what he can do in 2023 healthy and with a defined role (super utility) now he knows.
His total cost is equal to what was paid to Grigorious and Familia last year alone.

[andyb]

Kingery's walk and K rates did improve in the second half last season. Remember in his minor league career it was always the second chance at each level where it improved. Then he was jumped to the majors before he had that second chance at AAA and the majors are just a tough development environment.

Last year could have been that first healthy spell of AAA development that he needed. I do think I posted about this before they signed Harrison that Kingery could have won a bench job especially because the right-handed bat and the ability to play CF are needed on the bench.

The lack of options are just an anomaly in that he was always getting hurt so he was sent to the IL and then rehab. Then later he was paid too much so he could get outrighted and not be taken on waivers. Stranger things have happened as to him winning a job. Then he might actually have a couple of years on modest arbitration awards that could make him next season's Josh Harrison piece on the bench for like $2 million (though I am wondering if the 20% salary cut rule for arbitration is still in effect. If so he'll just be a free agent next season).

[allentown]

Let's see what he can do in 2023 healthy and with a defined role (super utility) now he knows.
His total cost is equal to what was paid to Grigorious and Familia last year alone.

It depends how you define 'see what he can do". I'm being realistic, not down on him. I would like to see him back in Philly, but I don't think you can do it based on ST performance. Last time he wowed the team in ST, he put up a barely above .600 OPS. A good end to ST will be very encouraging, but he needs to show he can produce in AAA games which count, where pitchers main focus will be getting him out, rather than working on a pitch or rounding into shape. He has yet to put up big numbers in AAA.

[julio]

Let's see what he can do in 2023 healthy and with a defined role (super utility) now he knows.

Let's forget "super utility." It was chasing after "super utility," along with Kingery's lack of plate discipline concerning breaking balls, that got him where he is.

allentown is correct. Kingery needs to prove himself in AAA, which he really hasn't ever done. By "prove himself," I mean "dominate," not "do OK." There is no reason to bump somebody off the 40-man to make room for Kingery at this point. All the "utility" guys have options except Sosa and Harrison. The only one of those two I would even consider exposing to waivers to make room for Kingery would be Harrison, and then only if both of their play indicates that Kingery is clearly better.

[Austinfan]

Forget stats. The next two weeks will tell you if Kingery is for real.
Does he chase low breaking balls and high fastballs?
Does he stick with his new swing or let his swing get long?
Does he get pull happy?

If he shows discipline, a short level stroke, makes consistent contact with high exit velocities against ML pitchers, then there's a good chance he's turned the corner. They may still send him to AAA, not just to be sure about him, but also to gauge what they have in Cave and Guthrie - it's a long season - odds are you'll need all of them.

[julio]

Forget stats. The next two weeks will tell you if Kingery is for real.

No. Not the next two weeks. The next two months, perhaps.

Two weeks' performance essentially never tells you much. Baseball players are streaky.

[Austinfan]

I'm not talking about results, those are stochastic.
I'm talking about his approach to hitting facing ML pitchers who are close to season form.
Does he stick with his "new" approach or does he regress to bad habits.
That's what I'm looking for if I'm Long.

Does he "trust the process."

[allentown]

Don't know what you mean by "does he trust the process?" He may well trust the process, but old habits die hard and he may no longer have all the necessary physical skills to make the process work. He has had injury and long Covid. You assume his problems are simply mental stubbornness. I don't.

[andyb]

There seems an irrational sentiment that Long can fix every hitter. He seems to be a pretty good hitting coach. But most neutral observers would likely say that any coach is unlikely to have a huge impact on any single player's performance. It is really 95% the player and 5% the coach.

But the coach still gets fired if the players do poorly and gets a raise if they do well. If Kingery succeeds it will most likely be because of his hard work and talent, and not his coaching. There is really not much difference between the best and worst coaches at the major league level.

[zambonir]

It's not like the major league coaching staff doesn't know - better than anyone - what Kingery's history is, and how much he desperately needed time in AAA to rebuild himself as a hitter. They are also perfectly capable of knowing what does and doesn't project about spring training performance, and what small samples are. If they think he is one of the 26 best players in a vacuum you have to trust them. And while the hype about Long is indeed a bit much, it does sound like he actually has been working with Kingery specifically, in the off-season, and explicitly fixing what the private hitting coach broke.

What's not in a vacuum is the contracts and options and roster status, so logic says you keep Kingery stashed because you can. But if he's a better CF than Guthrie or Cave and they want a RHB (since Hall gives you a LHB off the bench and a RHB might spell Marsh some) there is a legit path for him.