2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[Patchmk88]

https://twitter.com/Phillies/status/1681705302922493960?s=20

Painter going to get TJ...

[julio]

Medical update on Andrew Painter: pic.twitter.com/L4lRv0kC4w

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) July 19, 2023

[flyers19rw]

Should have done this months ago. Now it's a wasted year for '23 and also '24 with rehab. See him in ST in '25. The injury is a shame but so is the lallygagging around getting him fixed. If this was due to Boras being overly protective of his client, he did Painter no favors.

[zambonir]

Nope, you don't rush into surgery ever. And this has no impact on Painter's health and career. Impact on the Phillies because they lose his services for a while? Yes, but still no reason to not follow best medical practices.

Where it could still get interesting is if ElAttrache (Boras's guy) doesn't agree with the team. But he's still more qualified than their doctors are.

[andyb]

Bright side - we have just extended team control over Painter through 2031 at the earliest.

2024 - rehab, maybe a few innings at the end
2025 - slow ramp up. Probably does not get to AAA until May or June in the best case scenario. Even if he makes the majors this season it will not be a full year. 40 man roster decision not needed until after this season though hopefully it is during the season.
2026-2028 - years 1-3 pre-arbitration
2029-2031 - arbitration

This is not surprising. Just wished they figured it out sooner though I am also in the player camp of no surgery is better than surgery. Nola did not need it and was just fine (though he does not throw 100).

[Philsmania]

Nope, you don't rush into surgery ever. And this has no impact on Painter's health and career. Impact on the Phillies because they lose his services for a while? Yes, but still no reason to not follow best medical practices.

Where it could still get interesting is if ElAttrache (Boras's guy) doesn't agree with the team. But he's still more qualified than their doctors are.

Agreed. Only a butcher surgeon rushes patients into surgeries which may not be necessary. Having said that, rest rarely makes these issues go away. Nola was an outlier in that regard. But, ethics--medical and otherwise--dictate that you try rest if it might work.

After missing the better part of two years (perhaps he'll log some minor league innings or AFL innings late in 2024), I'm not sure what type of prospect he will be. He certainly won't be a top 100 anymore.

At least by the time he makes The Show, he'll be able to go out and legally buy a drink with his teammates.

[zambonir]

Agreed. Only a butcher surgeon rushes patients into surgeries which may not be necessary. Having said that, rest rarely makes these issues go away. Nola was an outlier in that regard. But, ethics--medical and otherwise--dictate that you try rest if it might work.

We'd have to put together a really long list of pitchers to be really sure of this. We just only remember the guys who have surgery and the guys who are as good as Nola and avoided it. And it's not just ethics - the Phillies were hoping he could still pitch for them this year, or at least next year. If rest or non-TJ surgery had been the outcome that was still possible.

And Andy's post makes the case that Boras is prioritizing the kid's health over his first big free agent contract too. If the latter was all he cared about he would have wanted Painter to be in the bigs in April.

[Philsmania]

For all the talk of Tommy John possibly being in the HOF, I think Dr. Frank Jobe who invented John's namesake surgery should probably be in there considering his impact onn the game.

[zambonir]

And that is Jobe's practice, where ElAttrache is.

Is there actually a Hall of Fame category for people like that? I mean, you could also make the case for someone like Bill James (who was probably never a member of the BBWAA and therefore even less likely to get voted in as a writer) or various stadium architects (in some cases for better or worse).

While looking up the writer award, interesting to note that they removed J.G. Taylor Spink's name from it in 2021 due to his racist history, but Bill Conlin remains right there.

[fish]

Awful as it is, he’ll still be only 21 when he throws his next competitive pitch.

[Patchmk88]

I'm guessing he'll still be a Top 100 prospect. Recoveries from TJ are overwhelmingly successful and he should still have the stuff he did before the injury which made him a Top 100 guy.

[zambonir]

I don't know if they are overwhelmingly successful in terms of performance and stuff being as good as it was before but much better to have it at 19 instead of 29.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Unless someone goes crazy in the next two month he will be the #1 prospect in the system this offseason. Unless the recovery goes off the rails he probably settles into the middle of top 100 lists until he comes back, his ranking has already been dropped and will probably essentially freeze until he is back.

[Philsmania]

And that is Jobe's practice, where ElAttrache is.

Is there actually a Hall of Fame category for people like that? I mean, you could also make the case for someone like Bill James (who was probably never a member of the BBWAA and therefore even less likely to get voted in as a writer) or various stadium architects (in some cases for better or worse).

While looking up the writer award, interesting to note that they removed J.G. Taylor Spink's name from it in 2021 due to his racist history, but Bill Conlin remains right there.

Nonplayer, nonmanager "innovators" have been inducted before. James should probably go in as the father of the analytics revolution. However, he probably made a lot of enemies for himself with his biting writing style.

While Spink's name has been stripped from the award, he's still in the HOF. To date, no one has ever been expelled from the HOF. I doubt Conlin will ever be removed but, if he was still alive, I doubt he would be invited to participate in any HOF activities or to represent the HOF in any way.

[Patchmk88]

I should have said "TJ surgeries in young arms". I mean I don't have the stats but I watch a lot of MLB and college baseball and it seems like young pitchers typically come back from TJ surgery pretty favorably.

[zambonir]

True enough. Also hard to know, when the prospects who've had it fail or disappoint, whether the TJ actually had anything to do with that (ie. they might have done so anyway).

[gmwannabe]

Did Pryor, from the Cubs have it? he had a tremendous start to the career and then dropped off the face of the earth.
gm

[andyb]

The studies I have seen show the return rate from Tommy John surgery is over 90% these days, maybe even approaching 95% when one factors in age (like a 40-year-old might not be expected to return).

There is a gap between players that return and players that return as good or better than they were previously. That is more in the 83%-85% range I believe. It is probably a misnomer that TJ surgery makes pitchers better than they were previously since you probably have lots of pitchers who pitched for a period with the injury. Just getting them healthy would make them better than their pre-surgery performance.

[bkox]

Did Pryor, from the Cubs have it?

Pryor had tears in his labrum, anterior capsule, and rotator cuff

Shoulder injuries are MUCH worse than UCL injuries.

[LegoDoom]

Did Pryor, from the Cubs have it?

Pryor had tears in his labrum, anterior capsule, and rotator cuff

Shoulder injuries are MUCH worse than UCL injuries.

Didn't he also get hit in his elbow on a line drive? I know it wasn't as serious as his shoulder injuries, but adding that to his shoulder injuries can't have helped.