2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[Aquapong]

Could Harper play LF instead of 1B? I’m just not sure why we’re putting Harper there.

[zambonir]

I don't think LF is any easier than RF in terms of the stress on his arm. The point of 1B is you rarely throw (and not very far if so). I still think they hope he finishes the season in RF.

And it's not like we have anybody better at 1B? I mean, if Hall wants to make it hard to to take him out of the line-up (or the entire major league roster) great, but I still don't know if he has that in him, and he's still not gonna be better than Harper and Schwarber. I guess a better question might be would he be any worse in LF than the current Schwarbs?

[Jazzhead]

And it's not like we have anybody better at 1B?

Right now I'm in the camp (small though it may be) that favors keeping Kody Clemens in there most days. It is so refreshing to have a good fielding first baseman, it makes the entire infield look better and I'm sure the pitchers appreciate it (and right now, what's keeping us in the hunt is solid pitching).

Clemens can stick as the backup at first when Harper is ready to try playing the position. Then Hall could step in as the primary DH. That leaves, of course, Schwarber to continue to play left field. Not ideal, of course, but I think that's our best potential lineup, all things considered.

[andyb]

I always thought the 1B experiment had as much to do with Hoskins as to whether he could throw earlier than in the OF. I am guessing he still could play the OF if he trained for it by the end of the year but it might have been September instead of August. After Rhys got hurt there was uncertainty about Hall in a more expanded role and then he got hurt - so 1B made sense.

Part of this logic is the reason we really want to see if Hall can be an adequate platoon 1B in the next 3-4 weeks. His offensive ceiling is higher than Clemens and he is pretty good defensively there. If Hall still fell short we play Bryce at 1B in August absent a trade. If Hall plays well then I think you shift Bryce's training a bit more towards OF throws and hope he can be in LF in September.

[zambonir]

That is a small camp! Not sure it's a scenario though. Clemens' roster spot is the only one Hall can take given Josh Harrison is both RH and unlikely to be DFA'ed. And even Hall is going to have trouble keeping the spot if you assume it goes to an OF (be that Cave or a trade acquisition) once Harper begins DHing. It's either Hall or Clemens, period.

And leaving Schwarber in LF negates any advantage you think Clemens provide at 1B, which is negligible anyway with a weak bat. Yeah, he might work his way back up to being an average hitter which would make him a positive WAR player but right now he's hitting his way back down to replacement level (and he's not even a positive defensive WAR player, just less negative than what we're used to. Though Hall might actually be a better 1B than Hoskins? And certainly Bohm).

[andyb]

We have hardly seen Hall at 1B in Philly since he was mainly DHing last season, but his minor league defensive reputation was pretty good. Clemens does not seem bad either. Probably has a bit more range but Hall likely has better footwork with his more extensive experience there. Not sure there is much difference defensively for either of them (or even Bohm for that matter). They are all around average defensively. Harper is more of a wild card defensively of course, though his defensive advantage is getting Schwarber out of LF potentially.

[Jazzhead]

That is a small camp! Not sure it's a scenario though. Clemens' roster spot is the only one Hall can take given Josh Harrison is both RH and unlikely to be DFA'ed. And even Hall is going to have trouble keeping the spot if you assume it goes to an OF (be that Cave or a trade acquisition) once Harper begins DHing. It's either Hall or Clemens, period.

And leaving Schwarber in LF negates any advantage you think Clemens provide at 1B, which is negligible anyway with a weak bat. Yeah, he might work his way back up to being an average hitter which would make him a positive WAR player but right now he's hitting his way back down to replacement level (and he's not even a positive defensive WAR player, just less negative than what we're used to. Though Hall might actually be a better 1B than Hoskins? And certainly Bohm).

I'd keep both Hall and Clemens on the roster (and Harrison, too, as I agree with you that he is unlikely to be DFA'd), and keep one less reliever. They hardly use Dylan Covey and I cringe whenever he's in there. I think generally that bullpens tend to be too large, and teams -especially teams like the Phils that have some defensive gaps - are generally better off carrying an additional guy on the bench.

Yep, I belong to a small camp!

[julio]

I think generally that bullpens tend to be too large, and teams -especially teams like the Phils that have some defensive gaps - are generally better off carrying an additional guy on the bench.

Yep, I belong to a small camp!

You are not alone in this camp, Jazz!

[phillychuck]

So the "camp" here believes the value of the last reliever would be superseded by the value of an additional position player to be used to bolster the team's defense? I'm not sure there is much evidence supporting the direct value, and the indirect value of the reduction in innings to other pitchers seems to be larger than any indirect value to position players.

I would be in the other camp; we have better tents and s'mores nightly.

[Jazzhead]

So the "camp" here believes the value of the last reliever would be superseded by the value of an additional position player to be used to bolster the team's defense? I'm not sure there is much evidence supporting the direct value, and the indirect value of the reduction in innings to other pitchers seems to be larger than any indirect value to position players.

I would be in the other camp; we have better tents and s'mores nightly.

But my camp offers free beer - stop on by!

The problem you cite can be solved by having more relievers capable of pitching multiple innings. Strahm (when he's pitching well) is capable of such length; he went 2 innings last night and he could have gone 3 and saved Alverado the task of pitching the ninth in a non-save situation. Other relievers can likely do such things too; it's mostly a matter of stretching them out to do so, and with the permanent DH there's no need to pull an effective pitcher early. Two innings at a time should the norm for all relievers, not the exception - heck, that's just one time through the lineup.

[zambonir]

Yeah I think the game in 2023 demands the bigger bullpen (given reliever usage and shorter starts) and smaller bench (given there's so little pinch-hitting now). Your last reliever may be lightly-used/not very good, but that's still a role. That Covey takes the spot now is irrelevant; if he is replaced by Bellatti (pushing Hoffman down to the last spot) the bullpen is better for it, but also, in the Phillies' case, Song is obviously a factor.

The Phillies bench is just so haphazardly designed. Clemens would fit better as the primary IF sub, a LHB who can spell Bohm at 3B and can even play SS if they needed. Harrison (as things currently stand) should be the primary RHB PH/1B but he doesn't seem to play 1B (never mind that he also can't hit). Sosa, his hitting probably doesn't matter. But if all three of them were on the bench (along with Pache and Stubbs, since Clemens is currently a starter) there wouldn't be enough playing time for them, and the less playing time you get as a bench player the worse you look when you do get used.

I just don't think that many relievers are able to go two innings. Both for the arm stress/workload (including the stress of cooling down and warming up again between innings) and because some of them barely have two pitches, which is why they are relievers. The pitchers with platoon disadvantages also get more exposed over two innings. You can ask them to get one guy from their weak side, but not two or three.

Strahm is unusual for both his repertoire and his length/history of starting. And I'm still not sure he'll be on the team in October

[andyb]

I think the extra bullpen arm is crucial to avoid burnout in the bullpen. I know our bench is not that well designed, but there is also the sad fact that we only pinch hit rarely and it is usually for the 8-9 guys in the lineup. Pache and Sosa are there for defense. I am not sure anybody's offense on the bench really matters.

I guess another right handed bat would be nice and in certain games we could rest Schwarber, but the reality is that our manager is just not going to do that often. He'll sit Marsh and Stott occasionally, but even that seems on a grudging basis.

The extra bullpen arm is just going to mean 30 extra innings are not going to our main guys cumulatively in the bullpen. And Strahm could break down too if 2-inning outings are his norm.

[Callison]

The second Harper can get on the field and at last open the DH spot, Schwarber will be there. Listening to a few fans here that know the prospects, the Phils are loaded with future All Star OFs and there should be some competition to play LF. (One fan thought these guys were so good, the Phils should refuse to trade them for Goldschmidt!) So LF is about to become a strength. Everybody loves Schwarber, but he's a huge guy and lacks the speed to play LF. Will be an exciting improvement for the Phils.

IMHO, the weakest part of the Phils is the bottom of the pen. Yeah, we need every arm that's there to avoid burnout, but a few of the present guys can't pitch and really need to be exorcised to the Mets someplace. The Phils are also supposed to have serious AAA pitching talent - learned that in reading about what the Cards will eventually want for Goldschmidt - so I hope a few of these guys get a shot. Gonna have to showcase them to get the Cards' attention. I predict the rooks will be better than the present bottom of the Phils pen.

Was concerned that Marsh had forgotten how to hit after showing everybody he knew how to hit for a while, but he sure looks like he's remembered lately. Stott and Marsh speak well for the Phils' hitting coach. LOVED Stott's recent bunt single.

At 1B, the Phils must absolutely believe in Clemons, paying the dues while he gets his ABs. I'm guessing Harper will be there after the ASG or so. Wondering what kind of defensive 1B he is. Most 1Bs have spent many seasons catching 1-bouncers from the other IFs and it's a rare skill. Also wondering how well his arm has recovered.

[zambonir]

I am not sure anybody's offense on the bench really matters.

I think it matters a little, though perhaps this stat is deceptive because Sosa's playing time has dropped, Ellis only played when Bohm was hurt and Pache has replaced Guthrie. Bottom line though, we could use someone better in Harrison's spot especially since all the other potential fresh faces (Hall, Cave, and Clemens for that matter) are LHB.

4. The right-handed bench guys — Four players — Edmundo Sosa, Josh Harrison, Dalton Guthrie and Drew Ellis — have combined to produce a .226/.268/.364 line in 319 plate appearances. That’s enough playing time to be the equivalent of a regular.

Phillies at the halfway point: What's working, what's not, and what to watch

[allentown]

IMHO, the weakest part of the Phils is the bottom of the pen.

Every team's bottom of the bullpen is iffy. This is a consequence ot the larger ens in today's baseball. The Phillies pen is good -- the best we've had in years. Bullpenners are up and down, not just year-to-year but also appearance-to-appearance. IMHO a major responsibility of bullpen coach is to alert the manager that an individual who is warming up just doesn't have it today, and another guy should be prepped.

"Listening to a few fans here that know the prospects, the Phils are loaded with future All Star OFs and there should be some competition to play LF."

I don't think anyone has said anything remotely like that. I've said, and others have agreed, that Muzziotti is ready to be a part of the Phillies OF. I would be stunned if he were ever an All Star and quite happy if he became an average MLB OF. Rojas has higher ceiling and I think he will be ready to play in Philly in 2024. He can be a plus plus CF, and learn to be a plus plus baserunner/stealer. Again, average MLB OF offense is something to hope for. I'll be surprised if he is ever an All Star.

We have some serious OF prospects in the lower minors, but lack of power is an issue. Wilson? I don't know.

[andyb]

I think it matters a little, though perhaps this stat is deceptive because Sosa's playing time has dropped, Ellis only played when Bohm was hurt and Pache has replaced Guthrie.

Obviously it matters if they play a great deal. I am just saying that they are not on the bench for their offense. And they play for a manager who only platoons or pinch hits in 3 spots in the lineup at most. We just don't pinch hit a lot. We don't have somebody like Eddie Rosario in the middle of our lineup who platoons since the manager is just not going to sit Schwarber and Castellanos more than once a month unless they are hurt.

[el-pietro]

I looked this up because it really did feel like for all the wins lately that The Phillies weren't making up much ground in the wild card race.

Comparing the standings today to June 1st, the Phillies have gone 17 and 6 (.739) which is good for third best in the NL, behind the Braves (20 and 4, 833); the Marlins (18 and 6, 750) and just ahead of the Giants (17 and 7, .708).

The Phils have improved from 3.5 games back in the Wild Card Race to 2.0 games back, and probably more importantly we now have no one between us and the last wild card spot, while on June 1st, the Marlins, Giants and Reds were all ahead of us in line to take the last wild card spot. We have leap frogged the Brewers, Mets, Padres and Reds in that span.

The Mets by the way have the National League worst record in that span, 6 wins and 17 losses for a .261 winning record.
So really I'm just overly focused on the Giants, Marlins and to a lesser extent Reds who have all kept pace with the Phillies this month. At the same time, to have a .739 winning record for basically a month and to only make up 1.5 games in the standings (and to fall further behind in the Division) is disheartening.

[Aquapong]

So much baseball to be played yet. Just keep winning series and the standings will take care of themselves.

[Callison]

I don't think anyone has said anything remotely like that.

I'm not quoting anybody here, [gratuitous name-calling removed--pc, moderator], just commenting on the praise you folks laid out there - but,if you just gotta be literal, Goldschmidt is an All Star and one fan did say the Phils' prospects were more valuable, so there's that...

"Iffy" is high praise for the performance of the bottom of the Phils' pen. They can't pitch and need to be replaced.

[zambonir]

I'm sure someone will rise or fall in this thing that is not yet obvious (and it could even be the Phillies). But right now it feels the same as last year, the first two WC teams are all but certain (last year that was Mets and Padres though the Padres did wobble, this year it's whichever two West teams don't win the division) and two or three others will battle for the last one.

Giants and Dodgers have the best run differential (over Arizona too). Fangraphs does actually have the Phillies with the second-best wild card odds (49.8% behind the Marlins' 66.5%) but only slightly. They still have Dodgers strongly projected to win the West.