2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

phillychuck 2023-06-29 18:50:32 UTC #1149

Please don't be obtuse, and don't be rude.

The value of the Phils' prospects in a trade for Goldschmidt includes contract status and salary. Goldschmidt is a free agent after 2024, so you would be trading for 1.5 years of his service and paying him $26 million per year. He's 35. The Phils' prospects have six years of MLB control, two of those at minimal salary levels. They are in their early 20s. If they were to trade for Goldschmidt they would be gambling that Goldschmidt keeps producing at a near all-star level, and that their prospects do NOT achieve their ceilings. And they would be sacrificing a lot of money and tax penalties. And they would be engaging in an unsustainable strategy--you can't keep trading away young, cheap talent without cratering eventually.

andyb 2023-06-29 18:59:54 UTC #1150

I feel pretty good about them making the wild card if they can get in the 86-88 win range. Someone will likely fall off ahead of them if they do that.

As with last year the question is what value does a trade have that can win an extra game or two. We clearly decided Robertson was worth a prospect in our top 20 (Ben Brown) but not one in our top 5. Moniak was expendable too notwithstanding his success this year. To trade what we considered a top prospect (O'Hoppe) we had to get a young player back in Marsh.

Lesser prospects are worth a win or two. Better prospects need to bring back a younger player or be worth more than an extra win or two (like the advantage of winning a division rather than a wild card).

Patchmk88 2023-06-29 19:47:19 UTC #1151

It also looks like being the third Wild Card team may be more beneficial (at least in terms of first round matchup), similar to last year. I think I'd definitely prefer to play one of the Central teams as opposed to and of the top 3 wild card contenders.

zambonir 2023-06-29 22:18:24 UTC #1152

The air in Philadelphia is once again an issue. I don't imagine they won't play games this weekend given they did in Chicago but tomorrow is also supposed to be fireworks night.

Callison 2023-06-30 04:52:05 UTC #1153

PC, you and others here may be down on Goldschmidt, or maybe too cautious, but others have a right to their opinion. The opportunity to acquire Goldschmidt would be a rare opportunity for the Phils, especially considering the vacancy at 1B. I am disagreeing with those of you who think unproven AAA players should be protected if the opportunity arises to acquire Goldschmidt. Your financial details are relevant, and maybe they're compelling to you, but they're not to everyone, and negotiations are available to mitigate the 1.5 year term and otherwise make the deal mutually acceptable But I'm obtuse. And rude. I call some dude literal and I get PC'd. You call me obtuse and rude and that's peachy. Real nice. Maybe Goldschmidt will never become available, but if he does, I want the Phils to do their best to acquire him, as I have suggested, by showcasing the AAA pitchers. I want them to showcase the AAA pitchers anyway to improve the pen, as I have said.

zambonir 2023-06-30 05:06:22 UTC #1154

The Phillies don't actually have any good pitchers or significant pitching prospects in AAA currently.

Sabin 2023-06-30 06:41:01 UTC #1155

Look, it's fine to have and share your opinion here (it's rather the point of a message board) just do it respectfully so conversations remain respectful, and the debate passionate, but civil.

While it was obvious he disagreed with you, Allentown didn't engage in any hyperbole or disparage you for your view. The line of his you quoted

"I don't think anyone has said anything remotely like that."

frames his argument as what he thinks followed by a few statements supporting his belief. Again, nothing seemed incendiary, but if you do feel slighted you can always send the person a PM to clear up the matter. Otherwise just steer clear of more aggressive techniques in your responses. Using an epithet like "Mr. Literal", following with, "if you just gotta be literal..." attacks more the person rather than their argument as opposed to something like, "it seems you're taking my argument too literally. What I meant was ...."

The latter fosters more productive discourse, and that's the fun of this board.

gmwannabe 2023-06-30 11:55:17 UTC #1156

going after Goldy or Scherzer would help. but a lot of us have mentioned, earlier this year, that Scherzer is just a few pitches from injury. Goldy would be a nice offensive help but at 35, would be an all or nothing grab for this year and next. but, that saying, I would begrudgingly give up Kingery, Bailey Falter and Matt Kroon for either of them and let it ride.
gm

phillychuck 2023-06-30 12:20:45 UTC #1157

If they ask for Yhoswar Garcia I'd be willing to throw him in, too.

Jazzhead 2023-06-30 12:37:26 UTC #1158

Acquiring Goldschmidt only makes sense as a desperate attempt to win this year, because of a series of unlucky breaks that have rendered first base our least productive position. Long term, first base is a far easier position to upgrade than centerfield, which is where our future outfield talent shines. I'm happy to stick with Kody and see if Bryce can handle the position beginning in a month or so. That will also give us insight as to whether it make sense to re-sign Hoskins.

Now if the Cards want to dangle Arenado, then let's talk.

allentown 2023-06-30 13:21:14 UTC #1159

Sarcasm doesn't come across well on the internet. That's why /s is conventional. It doesn't bother me to be called Mr. Literal, actually far better than I filled in the blank. But... you say you are entitled to your opinion. And, you are. That means others are also entitled to their opinion.

You favor trading 'unproven AAA players' for expensive 35-year olds. Nobody said Goldschmidt isn't having a good season and that he couldn't help the Phillies this year. If the price is right, I'm not opposed to Goldschmidt, but do see a few big downsides. First, the Phillies already have a lot of expensive, old position players, most of whom realistically are defensively limited to 1B/DH and the team has Hoskins coming back and is prepping Harper to play 1B -- I don't see 1B as a priority hole to fill; second, the Phillies are over the lux tax limit; third. you rather cavalierly dismiss all prospects as 'unproven' and consider them legit trade bait to acquire an expensive 35-year old. A team that trades top prospects for expensive 30s players soon finds itself in the position the Phillies did after 2012, with a very long period of terrible. I don't want another decade of terrible. Every All Star was once an 'unproven' minor leaguer. Abel is a special talent. You don't trade him. We need better OF D, so I also don't trade Rojas and Muzziotti, because which guy is best still seems up in the air and both have a chance to be better than Marsh or Pache.

By 'if the price is right' for Goldschmidt, I mean basically a salary dump for perhaps Song and a minor prospect.

Callison 2023-06-30 14:15:26 UTC #1160

You know, if I'd said something insulting to somebody, like "rude" and "obtuse" I could see your point better.

Callison 2023-06-30 14:19:24 UTC #1161

allentown - I meant no offense. Somebody had to look hard to find it.

zambonir 2023-06-30 15:08:34 UTC #1162

Do they still have that "final ballot" fan vote thing? Either way I still think he could make it. Yeah, Castelllanos is sort of the most deserving Phillie (as just a hitter) but there is more competition for outfielders. And Bryce Harper is Bryce Harper.

The fact that he can't play the field does give him and MLB a bit of an out. Obviously if he went he'd just get one pinch-hit and that's that. And the game is far away.

Maybe he should do the HR derby. I know we famously believe hitters lose their power after doing it but what if the opposite could be true?

Austinfan 2023-06-30 15:51:52 UTC #1163

Why are people down on a 25 year old CF who's slightly above average defensively and has a .834 OPS?
Yes, he Ks too much, can improve against LH pitching, but it's not like he's a finished product.

Now Bohm at 26, well, it's his "do or die" season
A below average fielding 3B who puts up RC+ 91 is easily replaceable.

If the Phillies were to trade a young OF, it should be in a package with Bohm for a young 3B. Not a 1B.

BaseballCat 2023-06-30 15:53:38 UTC #1164

There is certainly a way he could go, but I hope not unless he does reverse jinx the home run derby

zambonir 2023-06-30 16:08:45 UTC #1165

Or for Arenado (kidding, mostly).

I get why people aren't all-in on Marsh, he's showing signs of life again, but he really collapsed most of the past two months (that nice OPS is almost entirely because of otherworldly April, reminds me of Herrera's hitting streak year, and both players were also good but not great as pure CFs defensively).

But I don't agree with Atown that Rojas and Muzziotti have a chance to be better than Marsh or Pache. All four of them have about the same chance. They're all still young. Rojas has the biggest chance of being better as the youngest/least advanced of them. But also the biggest chance of just being a light-hitting defense first guy (albeit a very valuable one). That also means he has the the most trade value and is the most blocked if you actually believe in Marsh and Pache (and don't think Marsh can play a corner).

Muzziotti is the guy I trade. Rojas would be more of a big swing and I don't think the Phillies will be taking a big swing. Off-season might be a different story. There is still not room on the 40 for all of them (including De La Cruz).

Can't rule out flipping Pache either, but given he was a more highly-ranked prospect than anyone in the Phillies system over the last seven years I would value him just as highly as anyone homegrown.

BostonRoss 2023-06-30 22:34:54 UTC #1166

Plus, Pache is performing at the major league level. SSS, but the other guys have no sample size.

allentown 2023-06-30 23:06:18 UTC #1167

I think you said the same thing I did in different words. If they all have about the same chance, then that means that either Rojas or Muzziotti does have a chance to be better than Marsh or Pache. If they have relatively the same chance, then any of the 4 has the chance of turning out to be the best. You go on to say "Rojas has the biggest chance of being better as the youngest/least advanced of them. But also the biggest chance of just being a light-hitting defense first guy (albeit a very valuable one)." That translates to Rojas has a serious chance to be the best of the 4, but could also bust offensively. In addition to being the youngest, his chance to be the best is driven by his elite D being a carrying tool (albeit perhaps just to a #5 OF defensive specialist) augmented by his serious stolen base capability.

Of the 4, Marsh needs the most offense to succeed, since he is only adequate in CF

zambonir 2023-06-30 23:16:17 UTC #1168

Well I guess we agree in our scouting reports, just not in our willingness to reduce the odds of hitting on 1 out of 3 or 2 out of 3 instead of 4, if it helps the Phillies win in 2023 and 2024. I wouldn't trade Rojas for a rental but I would Muzziotti. And if they somehow traded for a player as young and controllable as Marsh and they think Muzziotti could seriously be more than a 4th OF (or stuck in AAA next year) I wouldn't consider Rojas untouchable, just like O'Hoppe wasn't. But that does also depend on being confident in Marsh and Pache as continuing to be two of your four OFs in 2025.