2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I'm taking the Phils to win tonight

[Callison]

Whew!

Hitting still weak, but somehow eked out another W.

Anyone else a little bored with Clemons and Sosa? I thought Clemons was going to show us something, but he's sinking like a stone at the plate. Nice glove at 1B, but not that nice. I do not get Sosa, who gets serious PT at 3B and hits like a wimp... but still gets serious PT. WHY???

[RolenRules]

I guess they like his defense.

I think that going forward 3B will be a position the Phils will need to upgrade. As you mentioned Sosa provides little offense and takes very few walks. Bohm provides only middling offense and well below average defense.

[zambonir]

Yeah arguably Sosa still adds more value at 3B than Bohm even when he doesn't hit. But not much lately, in either area. He's also just a poor fit on this team given Bohm is righthanded and Turner is righthanded and Turner and Stott rarely sit.

The loss of Hoskins also highlights Bohm's shortcomings as he's just not replacing that level of production despite playing the traditional corner IF power positions. And unlike Hoskins he doesn't hit the more voluminous RHPs nearly as well. He could keep playing 1B (or DH) if he only faces LH starters but that is not a guy who earns his arbitration raises for much longer.

It's easier to find a 2B than a starting 3B; personally I'd consider moving Turner to 3B and Stott to SS. Sosa is a bench player or maybe another team would still be interested in seeing if he can be a useful starting or platoon SS. Even his defense at 3B hasn't been as good as is ideal.

But that is all next year stuff, unless Dombrowski gets really clever/aggressive.

[David_Criss]

Wilson, Kingery, Muzziotti and Cave are all hitting well right now and available.. Just saying..There are options to Clemens.

[zambonir]

Hall is the only option. Of course if he comes up and is great than Harper has to stay at DH and Schwarber in LF too. But there's nowhere for Cave or Muzziotti to play in the meantime.

[gmwannabe]

Why don't the Phils find Eury Perez types?

[andyb]

Because we have small bonus pools in Latin America and we lately have been devoting 90% of our pool to hitting since it is less risky. And we have been very average at it when we do spend money. Perez was a $200k bonus. We don't do that often on the pitching side.

[allentown]

We've had our $4 million man, so did Toronto. Different outcome. We've loaded the bulk of our bonus pool into one guy most years, so it's not as if we haven't had $2 million guys. I get that 15-16 year olds are difficult to project, but it seems we give those super bonuses to guys who can't even reasonably be projected to be plus across multiple skills. It's BP power, because the higher ups want more power in the system, or it's speed, because they want athleticism and are seeking a CF. That system demonstrably has failed us, both internationally and in the draft. You want power? It came in low-bonus guys like Howard, and Hall, and Hoskins -- none big bonus. The big bonuses went to the likes of LGJ, Encarnacion, Ortiz. Same with our constant search for OFs, especially CFs. Yhoswar got $2.3 million. It would be very good if we had a bigger international allocation, but size of the budget doesn't seem to be our biggest problem. The process we use to decide upon and vet the guys who get the lion's share of our budget seems to be the biggest problem.

[zambonir]

Right or wrong it seems the Phillies chose their scapeoat for the international failings already: Klentak and Minniti, the latter of whom was Sal's boss (and before that it was Benny Looper). Now Sal reports to Mattingly I think (it was Velandia originally but that was while the player dev job was vacant) while Barber reports directly to Dombrowski. Given the track record you could still say Sal has failed as both a scout and a logistics guy but they obviously decided he's not the issue. It's not like there's a Dallas Green or Monty or Amaro putting their thumb on the scale for him because of his long history in the org - unless Gillick is doing that.

[bkeich]

I know that Schwarber has some strange thing about hitting better in the lead off spot, but I think it is time to consider using Harper there.

This version of Harper (great eye, no power) is a prototypical lead off hitter (except he has good, not great speed). He is a very good base runner and is a bit of a threat on the bases, he works counts very well, draws a lot of walks but has minimal extra base power (until he is healed next season). Just a thought.

Opens up the possibility of adding a big bat to hit 3rd or see what Castellanos can do in that whole.

[zambonir]

Harper leading off has always been a reasonable idea though I think he likes hitting third even more than Schwarber likes hitting first. Obviously "if it ain't broke don't fix it" doesn't really apply here, though Schwarber's performance in June (if not recently) and the team's record isn't broke, even if Harper is. Would certainly be nice to put more guys on base for Schwarber.

[Austinfan]

I don't think it'll take until next year for Harper, the power is there, the timing is off, and that can turn around quickly.
Turner is more a matter of him pressing, trying to justify his contract.
Bohm is just weird, at time he looks like an elite hitter, at times he looks hapless.
Marsh seems to have rediscovered his mojo.

Harrison and Sosa are subs, nothing more.

[phillychuck]

I would not worry about the batting order. Lineup position has been shown repeatedly to have almost no effect on run scoring, especially in DH lineups. Bat players where they are most comfortable (within reason). You wouldn't lead Marsh or Sosa off, for example, even if they loved it there...
\

[andyb]

Turner has a 798 OPS in June. 10/18 BB/K ratio. .367 OBP. Power is down a bit from last year but this might be what Turner is in his early 30s. It would be nice to get one or two more great years out of him, but 750-800 OPS production for the next 5 years is likely the norm. That can be a 4 WAR player if his defense holds up.

[Callison]

bk - agree on the Harper assessment - he's hitting singles, not homers and doubles yet and we're all just waiting until he does, so why not replace a sub-Mendoza leadoff guy with a .295 leadoff guy? But Big Rob doesn't do things that way. REAL stubborn about HIS way of doing things too. Was HIS idea to bat Schwarber leadoff. So makes sense, never happen.

So Harper will relearn to hit those homers and doubles at #4. IMHO, when that happens -latest estimate seems to be August - it will lift the team a level and the Phils can play with the Braves.

[zambonir]

2023 Phillies/MLB Trade Deadline Speculation/Discussion

Bellatti has pitched well at LHV. Brogdon not so much. I'd like to see them option Marte and call Bellatti back up since the seemed determined to keep Covey for some reason.

They should also option Clemens and recall Hall - infuse some more power into the lineup.

Wish they could find a way to get Cave back, too but that would mean Harrison most likely and like Covey, the seemed determined to keep him even though Kingery could probably do better.

I think Hall will either be up tomorrow or Friday. And Bellatti is going to get the call soon enough, hopefully because they want to rather than because they need to (I still think Strahm is a time bomb and Seranthony is apparently going to be out longer). They really like Marte though. Brogdon will probably get his turn eventually too.

Hoffman is the guy who probably doesn't last past the trade deadline. Not because they might get someone else who's not already in the org but because he can't be optioned. Covey also won't stay forever. Song remains the x-factor as far as both the 40 and the last spot in the pen.

I doubt Kingery will get back on the 40. Maybe they'll throw him into a trade. But he's not the RHB they're looking for even though Harrison isn't either. In any case, Cave's not RH.

[Aquapong]

Heck give Kingery another shot. It’s not like Harrison is doing anything for us.

[zambonir]

Ellis is doing better than Kingery and he's on the 40. Heck Dalton Guthrie still had better AAA numbers than Kingery (but obviously he's no longer an option).

I'll be surprised if Josh Harrison isn't on the Phillies October 1 but he's definitely not going anywhere before July 31.

It's still puzzling to me that we have a primarily RH 3B (and, until Rhys got hurt, 1B) and a primarily RH SS and they added Harrison to Sosa off the bench. Especially since Stott rarely sits.

[Aquapong]

Well at least we’ll miss Stroman this time through the Cubs.