2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

For sure it seemed like poor defense affected some pitchers last year (particularly Nola). But the FIP/ERA gaps weren't that bad.

WAR generally/crudely covers this too. If Schwarber doesn't continue what he is doing in June to end up with at least a 120 OPS+ or so (last year it was 132), and he stays in LF, he will almost certainly not wind up as a positive WAR player. But hopefully he will hit better than that, and won't stay in LF, and he will. For sure there is still reason to worry about the last two years of his deal but that was always going to be the case.

[Austinfan]

The FIP/ERA gap is an individual effect, I'm thinking more holistically, if you have to throw 5-10 more pitches because of defensive lapses above the norm, over a week that might be 3-4 more IP worth of pitches, which is 2-3 RP appearances - forcing either overuse or going deeper into the pen or both.

[zambonir]

I'm just not sure drilling down into that really tells you anything that we don't already know crudely: that a line-up with five bad defensive players (like last year) costs you runs/hurts your pitchers, but if they hit enough it doesn't cost you games. And there are also other reasons why the starters and relievers were or weren't overused last year.

If your everyday OF was Pache, Marsh, Muzziotti and your everyday 3B was Sosa you'd be stressing the pitchers a whole other way - by forcing them to win or lose even more 2-1 games.

[allentown]

Let Harper sit several games and put Schwarber at DH. Harper is having a poor June and isn't fully recovered from inuries - he likely can use a rest. Put Cave at 1B in place of Clemens and Muzziotti or Rojas in the OF. Or if they don't think Cave could transition to 1B, put him in OF, Burrell at 1B, and Sosa at 3B. Still disappointed we ditched Guthrie for Clemens.

[bkox]

Burrell at 1B

Dont think hes available

[allentown]

Sorry, Bohm.

[zambonir]

I'm old enough to remember when most of this list (maybe not you) was complaining that Harper was given a game off after an off day, which has also happened a second time since then.

We didn't ditch Guthrie for Clemens, he lost his job to Pache (in April) and his spot on the 40 to Hall. And since he isn't really a CF, doesn't play 1B and is behind Sosa as a RHB utility infielder (and wasn't hitting at all, so no upgrade over Harrison either), just not much of a loss. I'm a little surprised he didn't rate more than cash considerations though.

[andyb]

Will the Phillies play tonight? Team’s forecast calls for steady rain until 7 or 8, then scattered stuff after. There is a call soon between the teams and league to talk. Big crowd expected. Do they want to make everyone wait again?

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) June 23, 2023

[Aquapong]

Well they better call it before I get on the TP.

[andyb]

Looking at the weather radar and hourly forecast I think they play. Even if it rains a bit it won't rain hard after 8:00. National TV game on a streaming service - if it starts a little late it does not mess too many things up.

[zambonir]

yeah I assumed they were gonna be able to play if forecast holds. albeit delayed. tomorrow could be a long one too though the forecast isn't as certain.

it has been raining HARD the last two hours. but that was probably the worst of it.

[andyb]

We got Plassmeyer back:

Small roster move: Phillies re-signed Michael Plassmeyer and put him back on minor-league IL. Basically, because he was hurt in minors, they had to release him to clear 40-man roster spot.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) June 23, 2023

[Austinfan]

Is that good or bad?

[andyb]

Extra non-40 arm. Not good enough for anyone else to sign him and offer him a little more money, so really just a depth move. Plassmeyer gets to rehab and does not have to move across the country to some other organization that would probably have the same doubts about his stuff.

[allentown]

He was younger then and not coming off a double injury, the return from surgery being in record time. When he first returned to the team, his offensive performance was excellent. Since 27 May he is a below .700 OPS hitter. Tired, injury acting up? Whatever, he's not the real Bryce.

[bkox]

They opened the gates at Citizens Bank Park and they are about to pull the tarp. So, looking decent for 7:07 p.m.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) June 23, 2023

[andyb]

The worst of it looks gone. There might be one more band of light rain between 7:00 and 7:30. Whether that would delay things is another question but pretty sure they'll play tonight.

[zambonir]

I'm talking about like, three weeks ago. And last week, for that matter. He took 6/19 and 6/20 off (one game day one night) as well as 5/29 and 5/30 (which is when everyone ripped Thomson for having him miss a game). So if it's true he's struggled since 5/27 maybe the people who thought those off-days were a bad idea were right after all

I think he is having the sort of issues that you play (and practice and take BP) through. It's about timing, and what pitchers are throwing him, and re-calibrating his approach, not putting himself back on the shelf. It's not the injury or tiredness. It's also not that different from what happened last year, when he was briefly hot and then ice cold for a month and then the lights came on. Both times without him taking much of a rehab period (none, this year).

Whatever the issue the line-up isn't better without him. Even when slumping opposing managers and pitchers have to account for him in a way they do not for Kody Clemens or Jake Cave or Brandon Marsh.

[zambonir]

It seems like all it really means is that Plassmyer wasn't that hurt. Had he been hurt enough to go on the 60 surely they would have been willing to spend the $.

[gmwannabe]

I don't think it matters. I think the Phils get swept. they aren't hitting and the mets have their number.
gm