2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[andyb]

The Phillies were probably a better postseason team last year than a 162-game team. 3 good starters (including Suarez), a decent back of the bullpen and power (with Hoskins who is now missing) is not the worst postseason formula.

An 85-win quality regular season team can be a 90+ quality team in the postseason with the right pieces.

[andyb]

Which is why they shook up the organization starting about 2 years ago

Yes, but realize they shake up the organization every 3-5 years. You say this as if all is great.

The only thing we know now is that we are paying for a 5-year period where our draft and international signings were mediocre. The only way out of that has been to spend money (something you tend to oppose). Nobody disputes that they should try to draft and sign better international talent. We just have not seen those results yet.

[phillychuck]

4-5 fun weeks which created a missimpression that the Phillies are one of Baseball's elite teams.

This is a useful impression to have out there if we ever try to sign free agents again. FAs want to win.

[Philsmania]

I'll believe the Phillies scouting and player development system is being fixed when I see results.

Fist Almaraz was supposed to fix the scouting. First Jordan was supposed to fix the player developement system. Then Bonifay was supposed to fix it.

[Philsmania]

4-5 fun weeks which created a missimpression that the Phillies are one of Baseball's elite teams.

This is a useful impression to have out there if we ever try to sign free agents again. FAs want to win.

Unless they are Kris Bryant signing with the Rockies. They want their money.

[andyb]

We really need to hit on a young prospect or two. That I agree with AF on. Our last real hits were Nola and Hoskins (in terms of above average regulars) and that is a long time ago.

Painter was supposed to be that guy this year. Beyond that we have a few guys that can fill out major league positions for a modest cost the next few years, but we really don't have many prospects who look like they can consistently deliver 3+ WAR. Even Hoskins barely did that because of his defense.

We are probably a bit better than a .500 club generically, though with injuries that could always be worse. We are down Hoskins and Harper has to DH (subtracting 2 WAR defensively from Schwarber). No 5th starter. Interchangeable AAAA players as our depth.

Getting in the postseason will probably require better health the rest of the way, vintage Trea Turner, and Andrew Painter doing a Marty Bystrom impression in September.

[BostonRoss]

That 2016 draft should have been delivering 10+ WAR a year for us cumulatively. We just got very little out of the prime draft years. Even Bohm is below what one would hope for in a top 3 pick. The Orioles hit on most of their high picks and are starting to win because of that.

I think you have a typo in there somewhere? Bohm was drafted in 2018, but in any case, 10+ WAR from any single draft doesn't seem realistic. The entire first round from 2016 averages less than 1 career WAR per team, with only one player over 10 WAR for his entire career (Will Smith at 12.5).

The Orioles will get more than 10 WAR this year from players that they drafted, but probably not from any single draft though Rutschman, a #1 overall, might get there by himself (but probably not).

[Austinfan]

We'll see if the changes work, so far Clearwater is grounds for optimism, it's not like they're loaded with 1st and 2nd rd picks but they're dominating their league. You only get one 1st rd pick and 1 big LA signing a year for the most part, so developing other talents is as important as hitting on these prime picks.

Ricones 3-22, Crawford 1-22, Viars 3-21, McFarlane 4-22, Aldegheri $210K, Pan $350K. Castillo $1.6M (flop)
Later HS picks, some FA college players, some bargain basement LA players.

[andyb]

Bohm was just adding to the cumulative underperformance of our drafting over a 5-year period. Drafting relative to position in the draft. Cornelius Randolph and Adam Haseley belong in that equation too. Bohm was highlighted because he was drafted 3rd overall. One really wants a player that looks like an All Star there.

Now there is a mixed history of third round picks, but even on this list I think Bohm looks below average (the hits being Manny Machado, Evan Longoria, Carlos Rodon, and Trevor Bauer). Guessing we'll be lucky to get 10 WAR out of Bohm for his career.

3rd Picks Overall in the MLB June Amateur Draft | Baseball-Reference.com

[andyb]

The Orioles will get more than 10 WAR this year from players that they drafted, but probably not from any single draft though Rutschman, a #1 overall, might get there by himself (but probably not).

Rutschman and Henderson alone might get them 10 WAR combined in a year or two.

The Phillies were the last year where the slot allocations at the top of the draft were larger. They balanced it out after the Phillies draft to make it less beneficial to tank. Our issue is not just Moniak. It is our top 6 bonuses together. Moniak, Gowdy, Stobbe, Romero, Irvin, and Josh Stephen. All $600K or more. The 2017 Haseley/Howard draft is almost as bad relative to expectations. The one good pick there was the senior underslot 10th pick (Brogdon) who got only $5K to sign. It is great to hit on a pick like that, but teams really need to hit where they spend their money. Haseley signed for above slot that year so the whole transaction kind of killed the quality we got later in the draft. I think I was one of the lone voices who criticized the amount of the Haseley signing bonus at the time.

[David_Criss]

Just putting this out there. Scott Kingery hits right-handed.

[phillychuck]

Just putting this out there. Scott Kingery fails to hit right-handed.

Fixed Your Post.

[zambonir]

Ha, yes, Scott Kingery belongs on the list of draft fails. At the time he seemed like a better pick than the first-rounder in his year, and better than Moniak too. But now the latter may not turn out to be true. He's Cody Asche, and maybe that's all he ever was, but he looked better than that on draft day and much better than that in the system.

We are down Hoskins and Harper has to DH (subtracting 2 WAR defensively from Schwarber).

That's on Dombrowski though. Schwarber wasn't signed to DH full-time, and very rarely did so last season. But he hit enough, and the team was good enough, that the 2 lost WAR didn't really matter (and they overcame Castellanos's weak bat too).

[andyb]

Schwarber and Castellanos were signed to share LF and DH. Remember back when Bryce played the OF?

Harper started DHing full time in game 10 last year. The Phillies were probably going to DH Schwarber and Castellanos about 40% of the time each and spread the rest of the DH starts around. That was the plan for 9 games anyway.

[bkeich]

Bohm was just adding to the cumulative underperformance of our drafting over a 5-year period. Drafting relative to position in the draft. Cornelius Randolph and Adam Haseley belong in that equation too. Bohm was highlighted because he was drafted 3rd overall. One really wants a player that looks like an All Star there.

Now there is a mixed history of third round picks, but even on this list I think Bohm looks below average (the hits being Manny Machado, Evan Longoria, Carlos Rodon, and Trevor Bauer). Guessing we'll be lucky to get 10 WAR out of Bohm for his career.

3rd Picks Overall in the MLB June Amateur Draft | Baseball-Reference.com

I am very surprised that Lieberthal only had 15.3 WAR, I remembered him being better for longer than was apparently true. I would have guessed he was a very good hitting and above average defensive catcher by metrics, but my memory WAY overrated him.

[andyb]

Catchers tend to have a short peak and then hang on if they are above replacement level. Lieberthal accumulated most of his value in a stretch of 5 years where 4 of them were really good. That is stuff that we remember.

Chooch is actually at 22.5 WAR for his career. My mental image might have put him behind Lieberthal too. I guess being the 3rd best player on a bad team creates a better memory than being the 7th best player on a good team.

[zambonir]

Haha yeah it actually is crazy to think Bryce left the OF that early. But nevertheless, Dombrowski signed Schwarber to play LF before he ever signed Castellanos, and then was fine adding one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball to that mix. Unlucky that both Harper and Hoskins are hurt, but in a residue of design way. And they also planned to let Bohm and Didi DH some, knowing they were also liabilities and Stott was going to make the team. Just a lot of reaping what was sown, even if Sosa, Marsh and Turner were supposed to help swing things back to some better defense.

[allentown]

Catchers tend to have a short peak and then hang on if they are above replacement level. Lieberthal accumulated most of his value in a stretch of 5 years where 4 of them were really good. That is stuff that we remember.

Chooch is actually at 22.5 WAR for his career. My mental image might have put him behind Lieberthal too. I guess being the 3rd best player on a bad team creates a better memory than being the 7th best player on a good team.

Years ago, Bob Boone put up 13 WAR in 10 seasons for the Phillies. Phillies sold him after his age 33 season. He played 9 more seasons, putting up another 14.5 bWAR. So, he actually had over half of his WAR from his age 34 season onward.

[andyb]

There are definitely rare catchers that age well. Carlton Fisk too of course. JT has a better chance than most.

There are a whole lot of good catchers that don't learn the position well enough until they are 26 or 27 in the majors. Then have a few good years and everything after age 30 is on reputation and defense.

Look at Mike Zunino on that overall 3rd pick list. Had 2 really good years (age 26 and age 30). A couple of other years where his defense was really good and offense acceptable. Other than that he has been replacement level. Only now has his defense sunk into the negative range.

Managers will tolerate bad offense as long as the defense is decent at catcher. There are just very few that can combine offense and defense in their 30s. Chooch was actually pretty rare in his later peak.

[zambonir]

Chooch and Boone both had a few surprising late years. I think JT will catch again for somebody after this contract, he just won't be a big bat. Only the robot umps can stop him.